Week 4 Progno
Tony HolmOctober 7, 2015
How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.
|Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Thursday 8:25pm|
The fact that it is in Pittsburgh on national television between two teams that loathe each other means one simple thing: throw the stats out the side-window as this game is truly any teams to win. If Ben Roethlisberger were playing the Steelers would be favored but since Michael Vick is under center, the lines makers swing this the Ravens way. It is true, Vick is not the Vick of old and those that are snatching him up on waivers this week will be somewhat disappointed week to week. Vick can still show flashes of good play but the days of him being a stud fantasy player are long behind him. However, both teams will have to throw the ball to have any success so expect a lot of high volume passing as both teams post good statistical days in the air.
Favorite: Baltimore Ravens by 2.5
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 30 - Baltimore Ravens 23
|New York Jets at Miami Dolphins - Sunday 9:30am|
I think everyone and their brother thinks the Jets should win this. They'll certainly have better fantasy days and I'd much rather start the Jets Defense than the Dolphins. What you have to remember though is that this is a division game, in Miami, against a Dolphins team that is sitting in the bottom of the division and we all know what can happen when you corner a wild Dolphin.
Favorite: New York Jets by 1.5
Prediction: New York Jets 24 - Miami Dolphins 23
|New York Giants at Buffalo Bills - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Bills have some mojo going on right now and while you most certainly can point at Rex Ryan for being the catalyst, count me as one that am tired of his shtick where he always deflects from the team and puts the blame on himself when things don't go right. I mean, I get it, it's called coaching, but to say that he was "out coached" or "that one is on me" is just silly. It feeds in to what he's trying to accomplish and you can't argue with the early results but I do think it's a bit of a circus at times. The Giants will be OK here in the air, the Patriots demonstrated for the world to see exactly how you beat the Bills in the air, but stay away from the Giants ground game. The Bills won't post any big numbers on offense but they'll do a nice job with balance and continuously putting pressure on Eli Manning to try and answer. I'm really liking rookie Karlos Williams too who is dirt cheap in DFS.
Favorite: Buffalo Bills by 5.5
Prediction: New York Giants 27 - Buffalo Bills 24
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Colts are snake bit and that will show. Expect a huge day from Andrew Luck as he hits his receivers at will. The Jaguars had no answers for the Patriots, the Colts will bring that same muster. The Jaguars just aren't built right. They are actually a very good running team but with a defense that gives up so many points, the game dictates that they have to put the ball in Blake Bortles' hands to try and catch up and that is where things go so terribly wrong.
Favorite: Indianapolis Colts by 9.5
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 33 - Jacksonville Jaguars 23
|Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals - Sunday 1:00pm|
This truly should be a great game to watch. The Bengals are apparently good this year, or at least, are right now. They have a funny way of fading down the stretch but right now, here in Week 4? They're actually pretty good. Their passing game is solid, their ground game is too, and their defense is solid up front. The only place they could use some help is in their secondary and ultimately, that will be their downfall when the snow flies. We have a lot of games still to be played but the Bengals have that look of a playoff team that won't get too far in the post season but have enough horses to get there. You are likely going to be surprised by the low number that Jamaal Charles will post this week on the ground. You're really hoping and praying for his involvement in the passing game and a touchdown or two to carry your fantasy day. Thankfully, that's not too much to ask for as that's what the Chiefs tend to do when an opposing defense manages to stop their ground game from gaining any momentum. The Bengals and Chiefs both will be fine up top and Marvin Jones makes a nice cheap play in DFS.
Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals by 3.5
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 24 - Kansas City Chiefs 23
|Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins - Sunday 1:00pm|
I know it may sound a bit odd but the Redskins at home are simply a better team than the Eagles right now. In general, this will be a game of ineptitude and you need to be careful starting anyone in this as it will get defensive. If you'd like my idea on how to make the Eagles a better team that's actually an easy one. Put Mark Sanchez in at QB and make Ryan Mathews the starting running back and that will produce dividends. Seriously.
Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles by 3.5
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Washington Redskins 23
|Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Bears are... so bad. Matt Forte is the cog and everyone else just stinks. They are better with Jay Cutler but my goodness, it's not like it's Tom Brady coming back from injury to help the Bears.
The Raiders have actually shown some signs of life. Latavius Murray has been running well, Derek Carr is making good choices and Amari Cooper has looked sensational. Michael Crabtree is even contributing regularly. The rest of the team is suspect, they have problems defensively, on the offensive line, it's still a disastrous mess but there are some really nice fantasy players on this team that will score well for you week in and week out as they can never rest to sit on a lead.
Favorite: Oakland Raiders by 3
Prediction: Chicago Bears 27 - Oakland Raiders 23
|Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday 1:00pm|
In my head and heart, I have the Panthers running away with this but Vegas says no, it's just a 3 point spread and when I plug in all my numbers and run all my super computer calculations it spits out that the Panthers should win by.. just 4. So I peeled back the onion to see what is going on here and while the Panthers will dominate in every phase of the game, the Bucs special teams will help place them closer to the Panthers end zone and Tampa Bay has been doing an impressive job of converting opportunities. Tampa's opportunities will be less but they find a way to get points and that's what will help them here. What should happen in this one is really not that hard to decipher. Jonathan Stewart, who is due, will rumble in this which actually makes a lot of sense as this is the week that many will start to give up on him and put someone else in their flex. What we do here is work counter-intuitively to the fantasy gods striking us down and Stewart makes a great start this week.
Favorite: Carolina Panthers by 3
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 - Carolina Panthers 17
|Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Texans have a tough defense and that will show at times. The Falcons are throwing the ball so well right now that they will win a lot of the matchups too. Of course the big question is, "Will Arian Foster play?" and the answer is simply, "Who cares?" I mean.. I care, I would like to see him back, but given that he's a game-time decision, I'm not starting Foster even if the teams says he will play. He didn't have a preseason, he'll be rusty and the team will coax him back slowly. Don't play him until you've seen the goods and you'll be much better off.
Favorite: Atlanta Falcons by 6.5
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 30 - Houston Texans 23
|Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers - Sunday 4:05pm|
In San Diego, this is going to be a hard game for the Browns to win. The Browns will be able to run on San Diego but San Diego will be able to do almost what they want with the Browns defense. The Browns in the right matchup can play well enough to put them in position to win, this is not one of those matchups. Expect both teams to feature the ground game but the Chargers will be fine when they throw it. It will be a good day for your Chargers.
Favorite: San Diego Chargers by 7.5
Prediction: San Diego Chargers 27 - Cleveland Browns 17
|Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos - Sunday 4:25pm|
The Broncos have made a lot of changes to their schemes and that work is starting to pay out. The Vikings do one thing and one thing well, run Adrian Peterson, and that will not be any different here. But in Denver, in the thin afternoon air, with Peyton Manning running their offense effectively, it will be an uphill sled for the Vikings from the opening bell.
Favorite: Denver Broncos by 6.5
Prediction: Denver Broncos 27 - Minnesota Vikings 21
|Saint Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals - Sunday 4:25pm|
The best matchup on the field is when the Rams run the ball but that won't really matter much. Expect the Cardinals to runaway with this with overall effectiveness.
Favorite: Arizona Cardinals by 7
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 23 - Saint Louis Rams 21
|Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Sunday 4:25pm|
The Packers still have one flaw in that they don't handle defending the run all that well and this is a perfect game for Carlos Hyde and Colin Kaepernick to get their collective grooves on. Expect the 49'ers to want to try and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands by keeping it on the ground and look good doing it. The Packers however have a potent offense and the 49'ers defense has looked lackluster which doesn't bode well for the 49'ers. Start you Packers as usual and don't be afraid of Carlos Hyde here.
Favorite: Green Bay Packers by 9
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 27 - San Francisco 49ers 23
|Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints - Sunday 8:30pm|
The Saints have been struggling to run the ball which is more on the O-line than the running backs. As we mentioned here last week, the Cowboys are still going to be good, they have some tremendous players in a variety of positions. While the Saints continue to try and find their way, expect the Cowboys to play well here and roll right be the Saints.
Favorite: New Orleans Saints by 4
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 27 - Dallas Cowboys 23
|Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks - Monday 8:30pm|
Monday Night Football is going to decide a lot of games in a very big way as it is the fantasy statistic game of the week. There will be big numbers from both sides in this and you would be served well to ensure that your lineup includes as many Seahawks and Lions as you can muster. Expect volumes from both sides in all facets of the game. For you DFS players, it may make sound strategy to actually avoid this game entirely and not include the Monday game as there will be wild swings where games that were lost will be won and games that were won will be lost.
Favorite: Seattle Seahawks by 9.5
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 27 - Detroit Lions 24