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Week 4 Progno

The Prognosticator

Tony Holm

January 22, 2017
Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator, may it not cast a shadow. What an upheaval we have experienced at the running back position so far this season. I've fielded a number of questions this week, particularly around trading Todd Gurley but with all the injury issues at the position, you really need to circle around your running game and having depth is not a bad thing. For most teams, when a star runner goes down they switch to a RBBC and it reduces the position even more. Getting Le'Veon Bell back is great but he just replaces an already fantasy great DeAngelo Williams so it's a one-for-one trade at the position. Circle the wagons around your backfield with all that has been going on. Have a good week!
PassingRushing
TeamScoreTeamScore
IND310MIN140
SD281OAK137
DEN272ATL136
CHI271NE132
DAL265HOU131
CLE262SD131
TEN258JAX127
DET258ARI125
NYJ244LA122
SEA237PIT113
NE234BAL111
WAS232BUF111
NO228CHI110
SF224KC110
NYG221CIN109
HOU220MIA108
LA217CLE107
ATL216DEN104
TB216NYG101
CIN211NYJ100
ARI209CAR100
MIA202WAS99
JAX201IND98
CAR200TEN96
BUF200DAL96
KC190TB95
PIT189SF81
MIN177NO74
BAL170SEA73
OAK161DET53

How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.

All times are Eastern

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals - Thursday 8:25pm
This game has already been played as I write this. I expected the Bengals offense to be good but thought that Tannehill was going to keep up but he was the single point of failure so it was a high risk prediction. The Bengals performed as expected but the Dolphins did not.


Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals by 7
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 23 - Miami Dolphins 14
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday 9:30am
There is only one unit worth looking at in this one from a fantasy explosion perspective which is Blake Bortles and his receiving group. The Jaguars have been horrid trying to run the ball but the Colts defense is reduced to backups and bolt-ons and while the running game will not improve much, the Jaguars will be able to pass at will on the Colts. One thing the Colts can do is dig deep and score points. So while they will not be fantasy darlings this week, they'll gut out a close one.


Favorite: Indianapolis Colts by 2.5
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 30 - Jacksonville Jaguars 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - Sunday 1:00pm
If there is one place in the NFL that the Ryan brothers don't want to play it's in New England against perennial foe the Patriots. It's fairly proven that this is the Patriots' game to lose but at home, with a stout running game behind LeGarette Blount, the Patriots will be able to keep this game under control and be able to push whichever Rex Ryan button they wish. LeSean McCoy cracks my lineup but stay away from the rest on the Bills.


Favorite: New England Patriots by 4.5
Prediction: New England Patriots 31 - Buffalo Bills 20
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets - Sunday 1:00pm
This is probably a bit nutty but the Jets at home, coming off a horrendous outing, will play the Seahawks tough. Russell Wilson is dinged and will have to use his arm instead of his legs but he'll have success up top. The Jets will run the ball well behind Matt Forte and that will help the Jets keep the game under control and keep it in reach. Brandon Marshall may be more of a decoy in this one so be warned.


Favorite: Seattle Seahawks by 1.5
Prediction: New York Jets 30 - Seattle Seahawks 24
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins - Sunday 1:00pm
This will be a tough game but not because it will be a defensive battle, but because these teams are evenly matched overall. The Browns will run Isaiah Crowell with authority and he will post a big number but the Redskins will pass will authority all over the field. Do not neglect your Washington receivers and Jordan Reed this week as they are all due for some big numbers. The Redskins at home with their passing game get the advantage but the Browns will turn this into a game.


Favorite: Washington Redskins by 9.5
Prediction: Washington Redskins 20 - Cleveland Browns 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Sunday 1:00pm
It's a Tale of Two Cities with these teams. The Lions are on their way up and the Bears are struggling to find their identity. This one will be all Lions, all day, with a pleasant surprise from their ground game. This will also be a good game for Bears fans to skip so they can pretend it never happened.


Favorite: Detroit Lions by 2.5
Prediction: Chicago Bears 27 - Detroit Lions 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons - Sunday 1:00pm
The thing about the Falcons lately is that they just find ways to win. There is a different feel to the team and while the Panthers will do what they wish with the Falcons defense, making tremendous fantasy days from all your Panthers, particularly Cameron Artis-Payne, the Falcons are at home and will delight their fans with a gutsy win against a very good Panthers team.


Favorite: Carolina Panthers by 3.5
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 30 - Carolina Panthers 14
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens - Sunday 1:00pm
The big problem with the Raiders is that their secondary just hasn't come together and while we know it is supposed to take time, you would hope to see a glimmer by now. It's why the Raiders are sunk in this one as they will not be able to win games until they figure out their secondary. The Raiders on the ground will be good here with Latavius Murray but stick to your Ravens in the air and you'll do well here.


Favorite: Baltimore Ravens by 3.5
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 20 - Oakland Raiders 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans - Sunday 1:00pm
This one is in Houston and even without J.J. Watt, it's a tough game for the Titans to have to play. It will be a huge game for DeMarco Murray but the Titans will struggle elsewhere while the Texans play with balance so that there will not be a big number from their offense as they will keep the Titans defense on their heels and that will be enough to get them through.


Favorite: Houston Texans by 6.5
Prediction: Tennessee Titans 37 - Houston Texans 27
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday 4:05pm
It is hard not to like what the Broncos are doing. The only positive for Tampa in this one is that the game isn't played in Denver. You have to enjoy what Trevor Siemian is doing and it is all that the Broncos really need along with that vaunted defense. Charles Sims will be fine here but I worry some about the Tampa passing game in this one even though they have been featuring it as of late.


Favorite: Denver Broncos by 3
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 - Denver Broncos 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers - Sunday 4:25pm
Both passing offenses will be on fire in this one as Drew Brees throws with reckless abandon and Philip Rivers passes all over the Saints' bungling defense. Where this falls the Chargers way is when you add in their ground game, which will be unstoppable. A big day for Melvin Gordon on the way.


Favorite: San Diego Chargers by 4.5
Prediction: San Diego Chargers 24 - New Orleans Saints 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals - Sunday 4:25pm
There is a lot of valid concern over Carson Palmer and the Cardinals in the air but this is how Palmer rolls, he has some stinkers along the way and just when you get frustrated with him, out comes one of his big games. Expect the Cardinals to throw well here as they know that the Rams can't play catch up ball and the Cardinals will want to put as much pressure as they can on the scoreboard early on. The Cards do not want this to turn into a ground it out game as that keeps the Rams in it and plays into their strength with Todd Gurley. Gurley is tricky here because while he is the centerpiece of the Rams, and will run well here if the score remains close, if the Cardinals run up the score early, then this one is over for the Rams in a hurry.


Favorite: Arizona Cardinals by 8.5
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 23 - Arizona Cardinals 21
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers - Sunday 4:25pm
The 49'ers at home are trickier than most will expect. Defensively they will play well and will have a good game plan to counter what the Cowboys want to do. Fantasy wise this is all about Ezekiel Elliott who will be the focal point of the Dallas offense. Carlos Hyde will not rumble as well as the Cowboys will focus on stopping him and letting Gabbert try to beat them.


Favorite: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 17 - San Francisco 49ers 14
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers - Sunday 8:30pm
Welcome back Le'Veon Bell! I had a lot of questions about what to do about DeAngelo Williams this week and my advice is to trade him to the Le'Veon Bell owner as he means more to them than anyone else. Expect a big game from Bell in his return but where the Chiefs win this is with their defense, which is even better than many think, and a big surprise from their passing game with Travis Kelce and countless completions to running backs out of the backfield.


Favorite: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 27 - Kansas City Chiefs 20
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings - Monday 8:30pm
The Vikings in Minnesota? Oh my. Steer clear of the Giants running game but the Giants receivers will fight hard and will have some successes of their own but the Vikings are tough to play. Expect next to nothing from your Vikings from a fantasy perspective but rather, they will play an old fashioned game of smash mouth football in a team win where everyone contributes just a little.


Favorite: Minnesota Vikings by 4
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 20 - New York Giants 17
CategoryAdvantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers