Week 9 Progno
Tony HolmNovember 30, 2015
How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.
|Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals - Thursday 8:25pm|
The Bengals will continue to enjoy their rebirth in the air with A.J. Green and Marvin Jones but mistakes will be made too. The Dolphins secondary is adept at picking off passes as Miami knows how to get after the quarterback to force mistakes. Play your Bengals, they'll all play well (especially in PPR leagues) but expect the Dolphins to compete at home. There won't be a lot of fantasy stats for your Dolphins, this will be a special teams, grind it out type of effort from Miami. If you are desperate, stick with the Miami passing game and you'll be fine, Charles Clay makes a decent start as will Brian Hartline but this week, the Dolphins running backs focus on getting the tough short yardage rather than the big gains.
Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals by 10
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 23 - Cleveland Browns 14
|Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Bills are very much like the Chiefs in that both teams just know how to run the football. They're both running teams first and their offensive lines are built to run block. Fred Jackson is dinged and has been limited in practice and C.J. Spiller sounds doubtful, so keep a close eye on this situation. If neither can go, Tashard Choice actually makes an interesting play. The Bills starting running back is becoming a valuable fantasy commodity and C.J. Spiller can be had for a song in most leagues. Sing if you are able. The Chiefs win this simply because not only can they run the football but Alex Smith knows how to move the chains. The Bills do not share that same luxury. Start all your Chiefs with confidence.
Favorite: Buffalo Bills by 3
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20 - Miami Dolphins 14
|Washington Redskins at New England Patriots - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Jets are tough to run on so the Saints will just pass, pass, pass their way to victory. This will be more of a game for Lance Moore and Kenny Stills than for the bigger named fantasy players on the Saints. Be warned however, you don't want to start a Saints running back this week unless it's maybe Darren Sproles in a PPR league if you are desperate and even then. Where the Jets match up best against the Saints is when they run the ball and if they can play the Saints like they did the Patriots, by pounding the ball up the gut with Chris Ivory, they will. The big time risk however is that this game gets away from the Jets, like it did last week vs. the Bengals and they abandon the run before it gets started. If you're out of flex options and it's a tough bye week then slide Chris Ivory in but realize we're gambling here.
Favorite: New England Patriots by 14
Prediction: New England Patriots 27 - Washington Redskins 24
|Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets - Sunday 1:00pm|
The surprising part to all of this is how well the Vikings will compete in the air. We know the Cowboys will throw the ball well but the Vikings? Strange days indeed. The Vikings will compete because they will be able to pass at will and run the ball with authority. The Vikings lose because the game is in Dallas and Tony Romo starts to show he is starting to be a quarterback that is able to close out a game, which has been his achilles heel throughout his career.
Favorite: New York Jets by 2.5
Prediction: New York Jets 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars 10
|Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers - Sunday 1:00pm|
I had a chance to spend some time in Redskin's country this past weekend. There's nothing like watching a game at a house full of fans who have lived and died with their team for decades. There was an age range from teenagers to a Korean War Vet in his 80's. All lifelong fans of a persecuted team and it was interesting to live their perspective with them. The food was great, the hospitality greater and at the half, up 21-7 on the Broncos, the world couldn't have been brighter. And then the Broncos dropped 38 unanswered on them. Ka-boom. You could tell there was a certain familiarity about the entire situation. Like they were used to it. There was excitement at the half of course but it was very guarded, like they knew there was another shoe and it would drop hard. I was of course jubilant and supportive in my fantasy world, that the Redskins defense held up and only surrendered 7 points to the Broncos over a half was astounding, but they weren't having any of it. It's like they knew what was going to happen next and they were right. It was a quiet second half, there was very little bemoaning, very little blame, just an acceptance that here we go again. There was a great amount of love in the room for Alfred Morris. In Morris they trust. As an outsider looking in I would have expected more RGIII love but no, in that room, it was clearly directed at Alfred Morris and I found that an interesting take at how much they look at him as their savior.
This week the Redskins play a tough Chargers offense that knows how to throw the ball around, which is exactly not what the doctor ordered for the 'skins. It's where they were torn apart last week and quite frankly, may be where they get torn apart again. But the Redskins are about balance and that balance will see them through, unless of course, the Chargers drop 38 on them in the second half.
Favorite: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 17 - Oakland Raiders 13
|Saint Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings - Sunday 1:00pm|
This comes down to the passing game of Atlanta vs. the running game of the Panthers and the Panthers stout defense. In Carolina and owning more of the intangibles, the Panthers will play well in this. The Falcons will be forced into throwing the ball as there will be nothing on the ground for them. Play Harry Douglas.
Favorite: Minnesota Vikings by 2.5
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 24 - Saint Louis Rams 20
|Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Titans are still trying to figure things out, as are the Rams. The Titans are slowly getting their starting quarterback back in game shape and the Rams are not. However, the Rams defense has quietly been playing better and are starting to look like the defense they were predicted to be. Just a little. They will cause problems for the Titans when on offense. For both teams, their ground games are what you pay attention to and you can ignore everything in the air. The problem for the Rams though is that Zac Stacy is dealing with a sprain and has been limited and Daryl Richardson could get the start. For the Titans, they are now talking about a timeshare between Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene. If you've forgotten about Shonn Greene and you have some room on your roster, pick him up as a speculative play. You don't play him this week but he makes a good stash player for now.
Favorite: Green Bay Packers by 2
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 30 - Carolina Panthers 27
|Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints - Sunday 1:00pm|
The Raiders rarely get their due. This will be one of the better fantasy matchups of the week as both teams will drip fantasy points. Play your usuals from both sides and you'll be glad that you did.
Favorite: New Orleans Saints by 8
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 24 - Tennessee Titans 20
|New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday 4:05pm|
I was trying to find just one thing good to say about Tampa Bay and what they will bring to the field this weekend against the mighty Seahawks in Seattle. Aye Carumba. I did find Darrelle Revis. That concludes anything positive I could possibly say. Marshawn Lynch didn't run a lot last week in what should have been a cupcake of a matchup for him and now he's nursing an injury and not practicing? Something went down. Keep your ear to the tracks here as whomever is running the ball for Seattle will put up a monster. Robert Turbin owners unite if the lucky bounce kicks in your direction. Be ready to make the switch if you need to.
Favorite: New York Giants by 2.5
Prediction: New York Giants 23 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
|Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers - Sunday 4:05pm|
It's better for New England that this one is at home. This will be a tough game for the Patriots as the Steelers will be able to take advantage of the severely injury hampered Patriots defense with their offensive balance. They will be able to both run and pass effectively against the Patriots, especially if Aqib Talib remains sidelined. The irony for the Patriots is that they are better off not putting the ball in Brady's hands but rather, run, run, run on the Steelers all day long. The Patriots move too many running backs in and out to make one fantasy relevant but Stevan Ridley makes an interesting spot start this week as the matchup and conditions are just right. If the Patriots error and do what they often do, which is keep the ball in Tom Brady's hands, that will end up back firing on them.
Favorite: Atlanta Falcons by 5.5
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 31 - Atlanta Falcons 24
|Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts - Sunday 4:25pm|
Historically, this has been a hard hitting affair between two units that like to run the ball up the gut. This one will be different in that both teams will be emphasizing their passing games. Don't expect the Ravens to challenge Joe Haden too much which will translate into a down day for Torrey Smith, but they will be dropping back early and often with dink and dunk passing down low to their running backs and tight ends with the occassional bomb down field to Jacoby Jones just to keep the defense honest. Ray Rice and even Dallas Clark will perform well here, especially in a PPR league. The Browns too will lean on their passing game. It's interesting to note that Greg Little has been climbing the Cleveland depth chart and there's a chance we start to hear a little more from him after a very quiet start to the season.
Favorite: Denver Broncos by 3.5
Prediction: Denver Broncos 33 - Indianapolis Colts 21
|Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys - Sunday 8:30pm|
I really do think that no matter how you slice it, the Texans are a good team and at full strength, can still be very dangerous. A healthy Texans team will be very dangerous indeed when they get back to that state. Right now, it looks unlikely that Arian Foster or Ben Tate will play with the multiple running back signings the Texans made this week. Defensively the Texans will be fine, they're a tough bunch, but the offense has sprung just a few too many holes to be truly competitive. Beware of Andrew Luck and particularly T.Y. Hilton this week as the Texans will be bringing their pass rush to the game. This is a good game for Trent Richardson to finally post some solid fantasy numbers.
Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 24 - Philadelphia Eagles 17
|Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers - Monday 8:30pm|
On paper the Packers blow through the Bears both in the air and on the ground. Fantasy wise, you most definitely want to get in Eddie Lacy, Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. James Jones is questionable with a knee issue and if he can't go, don't forget about Jarrett Boykin. The Bears however always play the Packers tough and you know what they say, throw out the statistics when it's a division game and in this case, the Bears are one game behind the division leading Packers. Quick! Who has scored more touchdowns this year, the Packers or the Bears? The answer? The Bears with 25, the Packers have 23. The Packers have been hot winning 4 of their last 5 and are going in the right direction. The Bears have lost 3 of their last 5 and are going in the other direction which is trouble for the Bears in this. For those of you unfamiliar with Josh McCown, he can play very, very well in short bursts and will here. He makes a very sneaky spot start for those with bye week problems but I think we'd all rather have Aaron Rodgers at the helm of our team now wouldn't we?
Favorite: San Diego Chargers by 4
Prediction: San Diego Chargers 27 - Chicago Bears 17