Week 9 Progno
Tony HolmNovember 29, 2015
How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.
|Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals - Thursday 8:25pm|
Matt Cassel is back and that actually helps the Chiefs but they will run into trouble against a tough Chargers run stop defense. It's a bad matchup for the Chiefs and it will show.
The Chargers have certainly done little to cement themselves as one of the teams to beat in 2012. They're struggling in several phases of their game but have the talent to make things go well when the matchup is right. This matchup is right, but expect some mistakes and some struggles to continue to rear their ugly head. Do not look at this game as a place to hang your hat, as there won't be a lot of statistics to go around.
Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals by 10
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 27 - Cleveland Browns 20
|Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Sunday 1:00pm|
There will be some nail biters this week with this being one of them. Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne will look so incredibly good here that you will want to sit back and enjoy the show. Donald Brown will do what Donald Brown does which is play a complementary role in this offense.
The Dolphins have figured out how to run the ball and how to stop the run. Check and check. Reggie Bush and now Daniel Thomas are capable of putting the Dolphins on their backs.
Favorite: Buffalo Bills by 3
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 23 - Miami Dolphins 20
|Washington Redskins at New England Patriots - Sunday 1:00pm|
The real problem for the Bengals will be their inability to put up points on the Broncos defense, who will play spirited. Expect the Bengals to play scrappy but to be out classed in every phase.
Me, I play my Broncos, but I'm nutty like that. I like starting top caliber fantasy meat-on-a-stick whenever it's on my roster. Weird right?
Favorite: New England Patriots by 14
Prediction: New England Patriots 37 - Washington Redskins 27
|Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets - Sunday 1:00pm|
How low have the Ravens suddenly inexplicably found themselves? So low, that after the Browns beat them, many internally will start pointing fingers and we may see a Raven coach let go in response. Similar to an Andy Reid "deer in headlights I've just been blind sided" look, the Ravens won't see this coming either.
Browns win, that's right, those Browns. Trent Richardson will run through them and Brandon Weeden will add just enough to make it go. Welcome to it.
Favorite: New York Jets by 2.5
Prediction: New York Jets 23 - Jacksonville Jaguars 17
|Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers - Sunday 1:00pm|
Bears, Bears and then some more Bears. Tennessee can play feisty, and will at home, but if they were to play this game 10 times, the Bears win 8 of them. Worry about your Titans and play your Bears. Quite simple really.
Favorite: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 23 - Oakland Raiders 17
|Saint Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings - Sunday 1:00pm|
I like the story of the owner of the Jaguars, Shahid Khan and I encourage you to become familiar with him. If you have some free time, hunt down and read some information on the web about him. London being ripe for a team and the Shahid Khan story as potentially the new face of the NFL, raises some interesting questions about the future of the league if they truly take it global. The money involved in a global NFL game would rival the GDP of even accomplished nations.
The Jaguars have been successful at keeping opponents pinned down, and they'll pester the Lions too but Detroit will play much better than the score will indicate. As per usual, the Lions will find ways to shoot themselves in the foot but still stumble across the finish line in a photo-finish victory. Play your Lions, though these days the only player you can really rely on is Matthew Stafford. The Titus Young development is also something that bears watching. He's available in some leagues; pad your roster with him if you have the room and let's see where this goes.
Favorite: Minnesota Vikings by 2.5
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 - Saint Louis Rams 17
|Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers - Sunday 1:00pm|
Analyzing the Redskins matchup week to week is always a complex task. They have so many facets, wrinkles, strengths and weaknesses, not to mention the Shanahanology side of the equation. They're a tough nut to crack at times. The Panthers too, while losing last week, played a tremendous game. They made a lot of changes to their offense and managed to get back to being a bruising running team. Someone must have read the Progno last week in the Panthers organization. Well done lads, that was exactly the direction you needed to go in and you almost pulled off the upset because of it. This week you need to stick with it. I understand the Redskins are weak in their secondary and the temptation is strong to try and overpower their corners but listen to me now and hear me later, that's fools gold in them hills. Pound the ball. Let Cam duck and run with it, run Jonathan Stewart, run Forest run. Then when the Redskins try just a little too hard to stop the run, that's when you take your shots deep down field. Loving the direction guys. Keep your chin up, it's not an over night miracle cure but it will fix what ails you.
And since no one really listens to my ocean deep pearls of wisdom, expect Cam Newton to air it out from the opening bell, he'll have success in fantasy but they won't win the game.
Favorite: Green Bay Packers by 2
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 27 - Carolina Panthers 24
|Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints - Sunday 1:00pm|
Many will be thrown off by this game as it will unfold in a very unusual way. I assume most are expecting Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball all over the field and for the Cardinals to roll over and die, but not before losing Skelton to some tramatic injury due to their division 2 offensive line. I could just write that, everyone would certainly buy it and move on to the next game but the real tale of the tape will shake out something like this:
Skelton throws for more yards and touchdowns than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers morph into a running team for an afternoon as they run roughshod through the Cardinals. That just about sums it up. The irony here is that the players on your bench that play in this game, should have been in your lineup in place of the guys you actually started. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
Favorite: New Orleans Saints by 8
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 30 - Tennessee Titans 23
|New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday 4:05pm|
When a team has no chance at stopping the run and they get to travel to Arian Foster, it spells what has the potential to be, a record breaking type of day. The very fact that someone starts Arian Foster will alone win fantasy games.
Favorite: New York Giants by 2.5
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 - New York Giants 24
|Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers - Sunday 4:05pm|
Last possession wins. Watch out for this trap. I know Doug Martin and Darren McFadden automatically slide into your lineup and after what Martin managed last week, you are looking forward to his encore but trap city here. Tampa will have to execute in all phases to win this, which they are capable of doing. For the Raiders it will be all about Carson Palmer and the wide open receivers. Expect the Raiders to throw a lot and for Tampa Bay to try to put a very balanced attack on the table.
Favorite: Atlanta Falcons by 5.5
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 30 - Atlanta Falcons 24
|Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts - Sunday 4:25pm|
Let me explain a little more my comment from last week that Matt Flynn is the better choice to lead the Seahawks offense. While Russell Wilson may be doing all the right things and pleasing the coaches (which he is) Matt Flynn will win games. You pick. Expect a Marshawn Lynch pounding to be doled out this week but wouldn't you know it? Another great game for Russell Wilson and another loss to show for it. Just sayin'.
The Seahawks defense is tough but the Vikings can be tougher. There are games where the pieces just seem to click into place for the Vikings. This is one of them, play what you own and enjoy your Sunday.
Favorite: Denver Broncos by 3.5
Prediction: Denver Broncos 31 - Indianapolis Colts 23
|Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys - Sunday 8:30pm|
Another year, another season where Ben Roethlisberger doesn't get his due. Big Ben can and will lead your fantasy team and will again this Sunday. Getting a running game back will turn the Steelers into a potent offensive powerhouse and they have all the early markings of being "that" team that runs hot heading into the playoffs that no one wants to play.
But since the Steelers don't have their running game back quite yet, it's just a few weeks away, this day belongs to the G-Men. The Giants won't excel in the fantasy statistical side, the Steelers will fare better there, but they will beat the Steelers with their special teams, kicking, punting and just enough of everything else.
Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 24 - Philadelphia Eagles 17
|Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers - Monday 8:30pm|
This screams, "trap!" So many are going to be licking their chops at the prospects but this will turn into a red ripe herring. Fantasy wise the best play comes from Tony Romo to either Dez Bryant or Miles Austin, probably not both. It's a feel thing with the Cowboys, it explains why Jason Witten had 18 receptions off of 22 targets last week. They found a weakness and they exploited it but they don't know what that weakness will be until game time when they test the defense early on. Miles Austin or Dez Bryant will have a good day, but like I said, not even the Cowboys know which one. By the way, the stat that made me smile the most this week was for Cowboys backup tight end John Phillips. Welcome to the column John. John added 3 more receptions and a touchdown to the TE position which accounted for 21 total receptions at the position on the day for the Cowboys. It also has to be noted that as usual, Jason Witten catches 18 balls but none in the end zone yet his backup is the one to snare the touchdown grab. Fun stuff in there.
Many do not realize just how good the Cowboys secondary is. I realize it's Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones but they haven't seen the likes of the drape cover corners the Cowboys have and the speed of the Cowboys linebackers that enables them to keep up with opposing pass catching tight ends. However, I'm a believer in what the Falcons are selling and going with the only undefeated team remaining in the league, certainly isn't a stretch.
Favorite: San Diego Chargers by 4
Prediction: San Diego Chargers 24 - Chicago Bears 23