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Every year the draft brings different possibilities. I do not prescribe to a particular draft theory because year over year, there isn't one that fits. You need to study the available talent each year, the ADP data to see where talent is going and then come up with strategies to draft a winning team. Some years it's vital to get a QB early on, some years not. Some years you can let RB's go a little since there'll be plenty later, some years you need to bulk up and open your draft RB-RB-RB to gain the biggest competitive advantage. This year is as strange a draft as I've seen in a long while because so much depends on which course you pick for yourself early. Where is the depth this year? The answer is actually .. everywhere! I do not remember a time that so much depth at all positions existed and it makes it harder to gain an edge in your draft because owners can be plucking quality players for many rounds. More on this later but the only place I don't see a lot of depth is at the Team Defense position (if you draft a Team Defense) and although I usually don't, like last year, I am recommending you be that person that takes the Chicago D early in the draft and endure the whistles. We are looking for a competitive advantage and taking Chicago gives you one this year. Let's get stuck into the 2007 draft assuming 12 teams, 16 rounds, a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D with standard scoring, QB TD passes worth 3 or 4 points. 6 points per TD pass pushes QB's way up and that isn't covered here. I'll also add the pick I made in the FantasySharks Great White Shark League in the round to give you some reference. Let's get to it!
Round 1 RB, no matter what. There are exactly 13 solid RB's in this draft and you will want to get one of them. If you have a late pick, like 11 or 12 and one of these RB's falls through to you in the second round as well, then you are a happy camper. You need a RB you can build a team around and by having at least one stud RB in the fold, it allows you to go in any direction later in your draft. Drafting a RB in the 1st round this year opens up the possibility to draft Manning or Gates (not that I'm necessarily advocating this, more in a moment) and not pay too dearly for it. Bottom line, you have to get a stud RB early to compete so get one and hope the guy you get ends up being better than his draft position dictated. I have it Tomlinson, Jackson, Larry Johnson, Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, Parker, Addai, McGahee, Bush, Maroney and Henry as your top 12. McGahee I have a little higher than some and Henry could be the beast of the category, it's just his injury history that pushes him down. I'd still be happy to get him at 12. Do not draft Peyton Manning in the first round! OK, stud RB in the fold, let's move on. My Shark Pick: (1.02) RB Steven Jackson, STL.
Round 2 The Manning Question: Every year the Manning question pops up and every year the answer is different. In the past I would have said, absolutely not. I have never drafted Peyton Manning on a team that I run myself because of my stance on QB's and the fact that you can get a lot of them later in your draft that will play above where you drafted them. For Manning to play above where you draft him, well, it's just not possible. As good as Manning is, the difference between Manning at his position compared to let's say, Vince Young when you can get him, isn't generally worth a 2nd round pick and I maintain that this year. However, there is for the first time a 'however' scenario for Mr. Peyton this year. If the 12 RB's listed above are all gone, and so is Rudi Johnson, then I would think about Manning. It comes down to Manning, Maurice Jones-Drew and Thomas Jones. If you have a group of RB crazed members in your league, then I'd probably stick w/ RB but if not, or if you're looking at Manning and every RB mentioned so far in this article is gone, it's time to take him. But here's the twist. If you take Manning you must realize your draft changes completely in the 2nd round and your goal from that point on is to draft a starting lineup instead of drafting for depth or value which I usually recommend. You need to differentiate yourself as the Manning owner and try to win the league in an unconventional way to create that competitive edge. Most folks would panic and go into RB collection mode as they move down their draft but this is what I will tell you if you open RB-QB. Your next move will be WR-WR and then come back RB-RB. So you Manning guys in the 2nd round, your draft plan goes RB-QB-WR-WR-RB-RB. You need to differentiate, and getting a WR in the 3rd and 4th will give you a stud RB, the best QB in the league and the two best WR's in the league. The depth at RB actually allows you to do that this year. You then need to try and get the best D and possibly K as well just to continue to differentiate yourself at every position you can and pad with RB's later. For the rest of you, go with Edgerrin James or Ronnie Brown before looking at Steve Smith. I personally would take a chance on Cedric Benson before looking at Chad Johnson but to be truthful, I'd still rather have Marvin Harrison over both of them. My Shark Pick: (2.11) WR Marvin Harrison, IND
Round 3 If you weren't the Manning guy, you now have 2 solid RB's or an RB and a stud WR like Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison or Chad Johnson. In Round 3, unless Carnell Williams or maybe DeAngelo Williams fall to me, ink me in for a WR, even if I took a WR in round 2. WR's are funny this year in that there are 3 super studs and then there is a 2nd tier that will get picked clean very quickly. After that, the drop off at WR is steep and you're better off collecting bunches of them later. So given the opportunity, I'm coming in hot on WR in Round 3. Holt, TO, Roy Williams, Wayne, Walker, Housh, Fitzgerald, Evans, Andre Johnson and Donald Driver (check his foot injury though.) For you Antonio Gates guys, don't do it. You will regret it later in the draft as there are many good TE's available all the way through and you will pay through the nose for a position that you can scoop up later and still get unbelievable value. Plus you just passed on what pretty much remains of the good WR's. Go WR. The only wildcard is Brandon Jacobs. If he's there late 3rd and Holt, TO, Roy Williams, Wayne and Walker are gone. I'd think about the big fella. My Shark Pick: (3.02) WR Terrell Owens, DAL
Round 4 It's mop up time. You can breath in round 4 because it's going to be hard to screw this one up. Round 1 and 3 are fairly easy with Round 2 having the potential to dictate the top half (or more) of your draft, but round 4? Sit back, enjoy that pretzel rod and just do some clean up before we move on. I'd look at shoring up RB first, like with Deuce McAllister though if anyone from what's listed in Round 3 fell through the cracks, sponge those guys up. Round 4 in general I'm not too pleased with. Randy Moss maybe, Anquan Boldin sure, Colston certainly worth the risk, I don't draft rookies unless they're a RB so no Calvin Johnson for me but there will be many that have him here. Marshawn Lynch worth a look here, if not already gone. I'm not a huge fan of the available talent in the 4th but there usually is someone I'll grab onto. I'm not drafting Carson Palmer but late 4th, consider Drew Brees if there is absolutely nothing left. Getting Brees late in the 4th won't be a terrible pick as it will open some things up as far as being able to hold off on getting a backup QB till later but like I said, only if I was backed into a corner. My Shark Pick: (4.11) RB Marion Barber, DAL
Round 5 In general, you will need to think QB here unless Marion Barber is available. Late 4th/early 5th round is the right spot for Barber and I am scooping him up in just about every draft I can get him in. So if Barber is there, take him, else think QB. QB's you can generally wait on but after the top 6, the position falls off quickly. Manning, Palmer and probably Brees are gone. If for some reason one is available still, take one. If not, look at Brady, Bulger and McNabb but don't panic if they're gone too. A guy like Vince Young or a Romo, Cutler pairing later in the draft will do nicely. My Shark Pick: (5.02) QB Marc Bulger, STL
Round 6 If you went hard on RB early, there will be a lot of OK WR's here to choose from. Galloway, Mark Clayton, Braylon Edwards, Darrell Jackson, Chris Chambers, all make viable WR filler here. Jamal Lewis makes an excellent 6th rounder as does Fred Taylor and I'd even look at Brandon Jackson here. If you follow me, you've opened this draft probably RB, RB/WR, WR, RB/WR, QB or whoever fell through the cracks. I like the 6th round a lot because there is a lot of solid value at both RB and WR, expect a good one in this round and there's no reason to look elsewhere. Let's talk about the TE plan for this years draft as some will start appearing here and you'll be tempted by them. Some will be thinking Gonzalez or Heap but I think you lay off. I'm targeting Chris Cooley this year as my TE who is currently the 7th TE drafted and is going on average, late in the 7th round and that my friends is a steal. If that falls apart, Jason Witten can be had for a song late 8th, early 9th round. It's why it doesn't make a ton of sense to worry about your standard Gonzalez, Heap, Shockey cast of characters and certainly not Antonio Gates in the third round. If Cooley goes (and I do let out a cry when someone gets him before me) I'll shift gears and target Witten late 8th, early 9th as mentioned but be forewarned that someone usually over pays for him and he likely won't be there. If Witten is gone I then retarget for Ben Watson early 10th. I've been hitting Watson a lot in the 10th but when Watson is gone, Randy McMichael becomes the next target in the 11th. In every draft I've been in, I've managed to get Cooley, Witten, Watson or McMichael as my TE, paid face value and am happy to have one of them as you're getting great value at the position later on in the draft. That's your 2007 TE plan! My Shark Pick: (6.11) RB Julius Jones, DAL
Round 7 I advocate thinking about pulling the trigger on the Bears D here. You have to look at your D scoring and if points are high for D's, this is the place you pull the trigger. If points are low for a D, I'd wait till the 9th round to pull the trigger on the Bears D. So if you are keeping score at home, that's round 7 – 9 for the Bears D depending on how valuable they are in your scoring system. Baring that, mop up whatever is left at the RB position here in the 7th which includes great value picks like Brandon Jackson if still available though doubtful as he is climbing the draft boards, Chester Taylor or Chris Brown. If there's truly nothing at RB then think sleeper WR that could explode for you like Vincent Jackson or Donte Stallworth or Chris Cooley of course as mentioned above in Round 6. Mop up the RB's before Cooley but stick Cooley in with Jackson and Stallworth and think really hard on it based on the number of WR's you've collected already. If you picked up a bunch of WR's already, go Cooley, else you'll want to pad WR depth first. My Shark Pick: (7.02) Chicago Bears D
Round 8 Round 8 is great! Expect a ton of QB's to go in this round but there'll also be pearls like Ladell Betts and Warrick Dunn that make great deep men on your RB depth chart. If you haven't gone QB yet, this is it. Young, Romo, Cutler, grab what you can and if you just started your QB collection here in the 8th, come back in the 9th with another one. Don't forget Jason Witten is an option if you are picking later in the 8th round and have things pretty much under control at other positions. We are not going to look at WR for a while, so it's time to collect at all the other positions. My Shark Pick: (8.11) WR Donte Stallworth, NE
Round 9 If you're coming back in the 9th for another QB or you're looking to backup one of your big name QB's taken in the 4th or 5th round, think Phil Rivers or Matt Leinart here. If gone, LaMont Jordan, Tatum Bell and LenDale White look great here, there's a plethora of interesting RB's in Round 9 and don't be shy to pluck one out and stick him on your roster. My Shark Pick: (9.02) QB Jay Cutler, DEN
Round 10 The 10th is a minefield. If you still need a TE, then Ben Watson is your target, if not, look at guys like LenDale White if available, Reuben Droughns, Adrian Peterson (CHI), maybe even Mike Bell. I'm a Jerry Porter fan (yes I did just type that) and have been grabbing him around the 10th. The really great pick in the 10th is Ben Watson if you need that TE, else look for an RB with upside and if that doesn't exist, grab a WR with upside. You're looking upside all the way with this pick so look hard and long for the best upside pick you can find. My Shark Pick: (10.11) WR Jerry Porter, OAK
Round 11 Funny, checking a number of my drafts, for whatever reason, I picked up Mike Bell in the 11th in all of them! That just says I over value him a bit but that was pre-Travis Henry injury and I have Henry down a bit because of his history. When you are looking for bread and butter running games in the NFL there are 6 teams to target right now. In no particular order, the Chargers, Broncos, Bears, Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. I always look for runners from those teams, bump them up a little on my board and draft all the backups that are worth something from those teams later in the draft. In order, I believe the best backups in fantasy that would benefit the most if the guy in front of them went down are: Michael Turner, Mike Bell, and Adrian Peterson (Chi). The only other place to go with your 11th pick are all the tall TD catching WR's that could catch fire this season like Matt Jones, Brandon Jones and Drew Bennett. My Shark Pick: (11.02) RB Mike Bell, DEN
Round 12 Things are starting to wind down now. You need a K, but not yet, and you still need to pad for some depth. It's also still possible that you need a TE. A RB like Leon Washington is OK here, Dominic Rhodes, any of the tall TD catching WR's listed about that slipped through. You're really just looking to pad for depth at a position that needs padding. My Shark Pick: (TE Randy McMichael, STL)
Round 13 – 16 There's not much left to do now except put this draft to bed. To finish up your draft there are some decent sleeper picks to chase down and pick late. I recommend any of the following:
QB J.P. Losman, BUF The only final note is a note I make every year when drafting. 'Conventional' wisdom tends to state that you draft a K or D with your last pick. I actually don't like doing that because you lock out the last two rounds of your draft as you have to pick a certain position to fulfill your starting lineup requirement, essentially ending your creativity in the 14th round. Pick your K and D BEFORE the last round so that your last pick can be made from ANY position. In that way, you almost always will be able to pick up a decent sleeper pick that fell and has greater value than your last round Kicker. Hope you enjoyed this years draft plan! Happy drafting and may all your drafts be good ones. |
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