Fantasy Football Sharks - 2010 Division Round: Studs and Duds of 2009

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2010 Division Round: Studs and Duds of 2009 Jan 15, 2010 \| More

Welcome to the Division Round edition of the Brew Crew Corner. They say hindsight is 20/20. It is the perception of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred. If you knew at your draft the information I am giving you today, you would have had the greatest season ever. Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way, but we can look back to see which players we were right on and those that were very far off from anyone’s predictions. This can help us in 2010 where we will be bombarded with rankings from May through August and have to decipher which players have value and which of these are overrated.

Studs in fantasy football are players you draft high that will produce great numbers. These players could also be weekly studs that are hot at the moment or players that perform well for your individual team. Whichever they might be, we can all agree that we expect these players to carry our squad and win us games.

Duds in fantasy football are players that we perceived to be studs during the start of the season but have performed poorly. This could be caused by a number of facts. Injuries are the most common cause followed by team performance. Whatever the case may be, we are disappointed when these players fail to meet expectations.

I will break down each offensive player by group. It will list there draft average draft position (ADP), the ranking they finished the season with and their value. The ADP is based on My Fantasy League ADPs for points-per-reception leagues who held live drafts after August 1, 2009. Players with an asterisk had sustained an injury during the season.


QB ADP	QB RK	QB with Negative Value	VALUE
23	50	Pennington , Chad MIA QB*	-27
35	58	Rosenfels, Sage MIN QB	-23
33	53	Leinart, Matt ARI QB	-20
32	48	Vick, Michael PHI QB	-16
19	33	Edwards, Trent BUF QB	-14
34	45	Leftwich, Byron TBB QB*	-11
9	19	Ryan, Matt ATL QB	-10
27	36	Hill, Shaun SFO QB	-9
6	14	Warner, Kurt ARI QB	-8
12	18	Palmer, Carson CIN QB	-6
22	28	Delhomme, Jake CAR QB*	-6
15	21	Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB	-6
31	37	Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB	-6
2	7	Brady, Tom NEP QB	-5
5	9	Rivers, Philip SDC QB	-4
8	12	McNabb, Donovan PHI QB	-4
28	32	Collins, Kerry TEN QB	-4
16	20	Cassel , Matt KCC QB	-4
10	13	Cutler, Jay CHI QB	-3
3	5	Manning, Peyton IND QB	-2
36	38	Culpepper, Daunte DET QB	-2
37	39	Anderson, Derek CLE QB	-2
1	2	Brees, Drew NOS QB	-1
29	30	Quinn, Brady CLE QB*	-1
30	31	Bulger, Marc STL QB*	-1

The quarterback group has been the most consistent for the Top 12 ADP with an average of +2.1, the only positive average of the all the positions. One of the biggest draft day changes was the addition of Brett Favre. Those who drafted Sage Rosenfels lost considerable value while those who took Favre still got value for their selection. Interesting how the Michael Vick preseason hype overvalued his draft ADP. Of the Top 10 negative draft values, Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, Trent Edwards, Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer were starters that were a disappointment. Those who drafted Matt Leinart in hopes of Warner getting hurt or benched wasted a selection.


QB ADP	QB RK	QB with Positive Value	VALUE
38	24	Smith, Alex SFO QB	14
39	25	Young, Vince TEN QB	14
40	27	Freeman, Josh TBB QB	13
18	6	Favre, Brett MIN QB	12
24	15	Campbell, Jason WAS QB	9
11	3	Schaub, Matt HOU QB	8
17	11	Garrard, David JAC QB	6
13	8	Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB	5
21	16	Orton, Kyle DEN QB	5
14	10	Manning, Eli NYG QB	4
4	1	Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB	3
7	4	Romo, Tony DAL QB	3
20	17	Flacco, Joe BAL QB	3
25	23	Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB	2
26	26	Stafford , Matthew DET QB*	0

In the quarterback group that posted positive value, Brett Favre and Matt Schaub had the greatest impact value. Alex Smith and Vince Young were waiver wire gems that helped owners dealing with injuries or for matchups. Josh Freeman would have had more value had he been the starter since Week 1. The other top rookie quarterbacks - Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford - finished around where they were selected in drafts.


RB ADP	RB RK	RB With Negative Draft Value	VALUE
75	178	Rhodes, Dominic FA* RB	-103
68	177	Jones, Kevin CHI RB*	-109
66	160	Duckett, T.J. FA* RB*	-94
49	136	Davis, James CLE RB*	-87
79	143	Ringer, Javon TEN RB	-64
81	139	Gado, Samkon STL RB	-58
80	131	Jones, Greg JAC RB*	-51
73	123	Goodson, Mike CAR RB	-50
32	81	White, LenDale TEN RB	-49
11	56	Westbrook, Brian PHI RB	-45
58	107	James, Edgerrin FA RB	-49
46	91	Graham, Earnest TBB RB*	-45
27	69	Parker, Willie PIT RB	-42
67	109	Hillis, Peyton DEN RB	-42
14	53	Portis, Clinton WAS RB*	-39
77	113	Ware, Danny NYG RB	-36
20	52	McFadden, Darren OAK RB	-32
37	68	Washington , Leon NYJ RB*	-31
34	60	Brown, Donald IND RB	-26
26	51	Johnson, Larry CIN RB	-25
22	46	Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB	-24
4	28	Turner, Michael ATL RB	-24
15	38	Brown, Ronnie MIA RB*	-23
47	70	Taylor, Fred NEP RB	-23
28	50	Ward, Derrick TBB RB	-22
54	73	McClain, Le’Ron BAL RB	-19
56	75	Coffee, Glen SFO RB	-19
5	23	Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB	-18
19	37	Bush, Reggie NOS RB	-18
10	27	Slaton, Steve HOU RB*	-17
38	54	Lewis, Jamal CLE RB*	-16
48	63	Norwood , Jerious ATL RB	-15
12	26	Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB*	-14
63	77	Scott, Bernard CIN RB	-14
30	42	Jones, Felix DAL RB	-12
52	61	Greene, Shonn NYJ RB	-9
13	22	Barber, Marion DAL RB	-9
3	11	Forte, Matt CHI RB	-8
7	15	Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB	-8
29	36	Wells, Chris ARI RB	-7
17	20	Smith, Kevin DET RB*	-3
18	21	Thomas, Pierre NOS RB	-3
76	79	Jennings , Rashad JAC RB	-3
1	2	Peterson, Adrian MIN RB	-1
2	3	Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB	-1
61	62	Betts, Ladell WAS RB*	-1

There is nothing hurts more than a first-round bust. The majority of first-round picks are running backs, as eight of the first 12 picks were running backs. This season the first round was filled with plenty of indecision of where players should be selected. No player was immune to scrutiny as owners could argue why some players should go lower or higher in drafts. The running back position had the most flux in terms of value. In fact, the Top 12 running backs combined for an average of -10.4 value. This is the most change of any other skill position. From the Top 12 running backs, nine of them posted a negative value. The most disappointing players were Brian Westbrook, Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson and Brandon Jacobs. Matt Forte and DeAngelo Williams were the next running backs that posted second-round numbers. Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew finished just one spot off from where they were drafted.


RB ADP	RB RK	RB with Positive Draft Value	VALUE
57	8	Williams, Ricky MIA RB	49
78	31	Forsett, Justin SEA RB	47
70	24	Harrison, Jerome CLE RB	46
50	12	Charles, Jamaal KCC RB	38
42	14	Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB	28
82	49	Morris, Maurice DET RB	33
43	13	Jackson, Fred BUF RB	30
55	25	Williams, Carnell TBB RB	30
71	47	Fargas, Justin OAK RB	24
51	29	Maroney, Laurence NEP RB	22
25	4	Rice, Ray BAL RB	21
39	19	Hightower, Tim ARI RB	20
62	43	Bell , Mike NOS RB	19
59	40	Buckhalter, Correll DEN RB	19
33	16	Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB	17
23	7	Jones, Thomas NYJ RB	16
60	44	Faulk, Kevin NEP RB	16
31	17	Benson, Cedric CIN RB	14
21	10	Addai, Joseph IND RB	11
45	34	McGahee, Willis BAL RB	11
40	30	Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB	10
41	32	McCoy, LeSean PHI RB	9
53	45	Bush, Michael OAK RB	8
65	57	Morris, Sammy NEP RB	8
8	1	Johnson, Chris TEN RB	7
16	9	Grant, Ryan GBP RB	7
64	58	Choice, Tashard DAL RB	6
72	66	Brown, Chris HOU RB	6
24	18	Moreno , Knowshon DEN RB	6
69	65	Jackson, Brandon GBP RB	4
9	5	Gore, Frank SFO RB	4
44	41	Taylor, Chester MIN RB	3
35	33	Sproles, Darren SDC RB	2
36	35	Jones, Julius SEA RB	1
74	74	Moore, Mewelde PIT RB	0
6	6	Jackson, Steven STL RB	0

Where there is a drop off from the first-round running backs, there are plenty of other players that step in and produce. Ricky Williams was producing well in a timeshare situation with Ronnie Brown, but once Brown went down for the season, Williams prove to be one of the top value running backs this year. From the Top 12 running backs, Chris Johnson outproduced his value by seven spots. Frank Gore had a value of +4 while Steven Jackson’s No. 6 ranking was exactly how he finished the season. The running backs picked up on the waiver wire produce great value as player such as Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Carnell Williams all helped teams. Ray Rice and Thomas Jones were players taken outside the Top 20 running backs that finished in the Top 10 at the end of the season. Rice finished fourth overall among running backs.

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