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Matt Wilson spacer
A Quiet Year So Far For Offensive Rookies

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The unprecedented number of significant fantasy contributions from rookie offensive players was one of the trademarks of the 2008 National Football League season. Matt Ryan ( Atlanta), who was named 2008 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Joe Flacco ( Baltimore) both led their teams to winning seasons and playoff appearances. Ryan’s 87.7 passer rating ranked No. 6 in the NFC, while Flacco’s 80.3 passer rating ranked No. 10 in the AFC. Steve Slaton ( Houston) and Chris Johnson ( Tennessee) finished the year ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in rushing among AFC backs. In the NFC, Matt Forte ( Chicago) and Kevin Smith ( Detroit) closed out their first pro seasons ranked No. 5 and No. 11, respectively, in rushing. Forte also led his team in catches. Other runners, including Tashard Choice (Dallas), Jonathan Stewart ( Carolina), Tim Hightower ( Arizona), Ray Rice ( Baltimore) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis ( New England) also rewarded their owners with some nice fantasy production during the course of the season. Eddie Royal ( Denver) finished No. 6 in the AFC in catches (91), while DeSean Jackson ( Philadelphia) led his team with 62 receptions and displayed some promise as a return specialist. John Carlson ( Seattle) was the most consistent of the rookie tight ends, leading his team with 55 catches, which ranked No. 3 among all NFC tight ends.

However, with the 2009 NFL season more than half over, we have seen very few standout fantasy performances from what has turned out to be a weak crop of rookie offensive players. At this point, it is anybody’s guess who will win the 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Here is a breakdown of the most productive rookies by position through Week 10:

QUARTERBACK

1. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

Stats: 130/243 for 1,655 yards, 9 TDs, 12 INTs, 60 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 20 QB

Fantasy points: 130.8, 14.5/game

Summary: Sanchez was regarded as the most pro-ready quarterback to come out of the 2009 NFL Draft, but he rates as just a low-end QB2/matchup play. The No. 5 overall pick from USC has tossed at least one touchdown pass in seven of nine games played, averaging 183.9 passing yards, one touchdown pass and 1.33 interceptions per contest. Sanchez also has thrown for multiple scores in just two outings, and he has not topped 272 yards passing in a game while operating the Jets’ run-first attack. In Week 8, Sanchez threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins, which was his best game to date. It is hard to expect much improvement from Sanchez during the rest of the season.

2. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Stats: 144/265 for 1,489 yards, 6 TDs, 12 INTs, 82 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 23 QB

Fantasy points: 106.7, 15.2/game

Summary: In seven games played (he missed two contests due to a knee injury), Stafford has averaged 212.7 passing yards, 0.86 touchdown passes and 1.71 interceptions per outing. He has tossed at least one touchdown pass in five contests but has thrown for multiple scores in just one game. The No. 1 overall pick from Georgia has not topped the 300-yard passing mark so far and has thrown for more than 250 yards in a game just once. Stafford’s best effort of the season - he threw for 203 yards and two scores against the Seattle Seahawks - happened in Week 9. Stafford is a low-end QB2/matchup play in deep leagues or quarterback-heavy leagues.

RUNNING BACK

1. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos

Stats: 132 carries for 520 yards and two rushing TDs, 13 receptions for 71 yards and 1 TD

Fantasy rating: No. 29 RB (PPR)

Fantasy points: 90.1, 10/game in PPR formats

Summary: Moreno is the highest-rated rookie runner in points-per-reception scoring formats. Although he has played in a timeshare with Correll Buckhalter, Moreno has averaged 17 touches and 65.7 total yards per outing. Used by his owners mainly as a flex or fill-in option, Moreno, the No. 12 overall pick from Georgia, has compiled 75+ total yards in five of nine games played. Moreno also topped the 75-yard rushing mark in four games and scored in two others. In Week 3 against the Oakland Raiders, Moreno rushed 21 times for 90 yards and one touchdown, which was one of his best games of the season. Since Moreno’s timeshare with Buckhalter has been successful, he may not emerge as a true workhorse runner this year.

2. LeSean “Shady” McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

Stats: 86 carries for 353 yards and 2 rushing TDs, 23 receptions for 181 yards and 0 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 31 RB (PPR)

Fantasy points: 88.4, 9.8/game in PPR formats

Summary: McCoy, a second-round pick (No. 53 overall) from Pittsburgh, has been in a timeshare with either Brian Westbrook or Leonard Weaver (it has varied due to Westbrook’s health issues), which is why McCoy’s fantasy production has been inconsistent. McCoy has rushed for 80+ yards in two contests and has scored in two games, but he failed to top the 40-yard rushing mark in four other outings. McCoy carried 11 times for 82 yards and one score, and caught two passes for 10 yards versus the New York Giants in Week 8, which is his best fantasy effort of the season. Westbrook (second concussion) will miss Week 11, Week 12 and Week 13, so McCoy could finish 2009 as the top rookie runner based on the extra touches that he is expected to receive.

3. Chris “Beanie” Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Stats: 86 carries for 395 yards and 3 rushing TDs, 6 receptions for 49 yards and 1 TD

Fantasy rating: No. 40 RB (PPR)

Fantasy points: 68.4, 7.6/game in PPR formats

Summary: The No. 31 overall pick from Ohio State is the biggest disappointment among the rookie runners, because many had expected him to assume a workhorse role in the Arizona offense. The Cardinals still throw the ball quite a bit, and Tim Hightower - Arizona’s current starter - continues to steal touches from Wells, particularly in the passing game. The inconsistent Wells has topped the 70-yard rushing mark twice and has scored in two games. On the positive side, he has shown some improvement in recent weeks, rushing 16 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10, which was his most productive game of the season. Wells’ timeshare with Hightower seems to be working, so it is doubtful the rookie’s role in the offense will change this year.

4. Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

Stats: 50 carries for 226 yards and 2 rushing TDs, 8 receptions for 146 yards and 0 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 51 RB (PPR)

Fantasy points: 57.2, 8.2/game in PPR formats

Summary: Although Brown has flashed some impressive explosiveness and power in limited action, he still sits behind starter Joseph Addai on the depth chart. Brown, the No. 27 overall pick from Connecticut, has received double-digit touches in just two contests. He has scored two times but has topped the 50-yard rushing mark just once. Brown also missed two games with a shoulder injury. Brown amassed 112 total yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, which is his most productive game to date. Since Addai is playing solidly and Brown is performing well in his backup/closer role, it looks like this timeshare will stay status quo for the rest of 2009.

WIDE RECEIVER

1. Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts

Stats: 38 receptions for 401 yards and 4 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 28 WR (PPR)

Fantasy points: 102.1, 11.3/game in PPR formats

Summary: Because of a long-term injury suffered by Anthony Gonzalez (knee) in Week 1, Collie has received some unexpected extra playing time. The fourth-round draft pick (No. 127 overall) from Brigham Young has scored in three games, averaging four receptions and 44.6 receiving yards per outing. Back in Week 5, Collie torched the Tennessee Titans, catching eight balls for 97 yards and one touchdown. His yardage total during the last month, however, ranged from 26 to 66 per game. Gonzalez is expected back in Week 12 and probably will return to the starting lineup, which obviously would hamper Collie’s production.

2. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

Stats: 31 receptions for 413 yards and 4 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 31 WR (PPR)

Fantasy points: 96.3, 12/game in PPR formats

Summary: An injury to Kevin Curtis (knee) opened the door for Maclin to start in Week 2, and the No. 19 overall pick from Missouri is going to keep his job. Maclin’s best outing came in Week 4 when he posted six catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In eight games played, Maclin has scored two times while averaging four catches for 51.6 yards per outing. He also has caught at least three passes in five games. Thanks to playing in the Eagles’ pass-happy scheme, Maclin is the favorite to close out 2009 as the top rookie wideout.

3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings

Stats: 31 receptions for 422 yards and 3 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 34 WR (PPR)

Fantasy points: 91.2, 10.1/game in PPR formats

Summary: Although Harvin, the No. 19 overall pick, is not a regular starter, his receiving numbers have been surprisingly consistent overall. In points-per-reception scoring formats, Harvin has compiled at least 9.1 points in six of nine games played. He has caught at least three balls in seven outings and has scored in three others. Harvin grabbed five balls for 84 yards and one touchdown against the Green Bay Packers in Week 8, which is his best fantasy game to date. The Florida product is expected to see increased playing time going forward, because he is one of Brett Favre’s favorite third-down targets. However, I would not expect a dramatic jump in Harvin’s receiving numbers.

4. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers

Stats: 26 receptions for 453 yards and 3 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 35 WR (PPR)

Fantasy points: 89.3, 9.9/game in PPR formats

Summary: Wallace’s playing time increased after he surpassed Limas Sweed on the Steelers’ depth chart, becoming the team’s No. 3 wideout. Although Wallace’s fantasy production has been hit or miss at times, the third-round pick from Mississippi (No. 84 overall) has compiled double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three outings. So far this season, Wallace has amassed 50+ receiving yards in five games and has scored in three others. His best fantasy game of the season - three catches for 72 yards and one touchdown, and two rushes for 19 yards - happened in Week 7 against the Minnesota Vikings. Wallace should continue to produce decent fantasy numbers as a WR3/flex as long as Pittsburgh continues to throw the ball regularly.

5. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants

Stats: 23 receptions for 407 yards and 4 TDs

Fantasy rating: No. 37 WR (PPR)

Fantasy points: 87.7, 9.7/game in PPR formats

Summary: Although Nicks is part of an unpredictable wide receiver rotation, the No. 29 overall pick from North Carolina has played solidly when given the opportunity. During his last four games, Nicks has averaged four receptions for 71.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. Nicks’ best game of the season - five catches for 114 yards and one touchdown - happened in Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints. He seems steadier than starter Mario Manningham, but Nicks probably will not have a chance to compete for a starting job until next season. He should be a steady producer as a low-end WR3 or flex for the rest of 2009.

TIGHT END

1. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions

Stats: 24 receptions for 268 yards and 1 TD

Fantasy rating: No. 22 TE (PPR)

Fantasy points: 56.8, 8.1/game in PPR formats

Summary: Pettigrew is the only tight end from the 2009 crop that is remotely fantasy relevant. The fantasy production from the No. 20 overall pick from Oklahoma State has been inconsistent, but that is the norm with rookie tight ends. Pettigrew has hauled in four or more passes in three games and has scored in one contest. On the downside, he caught two or fewer balls in four outings. Pettigrew enjoyed his best game of the season in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks, catching seven balls for 70 yards and one score. Pettigrew’s chemistry with Matthew Stafford is improving, but Pettigrew rates as just a low-end TE2/matchup play.



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*The above views are not necessarily endorsed or approved by FantasySharks