Against the Odds - Week 12 Nov 21, 2008

Time for a little update on where Vinnie stand at this point in the season:

* 51.5% correct overall

* 66.7% correct among four- and five-star picks

* 45.8% correct among two- and three-star picks

Green Bay @ New Orleans (-2.5): The Packers O-line is playing at a high level and should allow Ryan Grant and Aaron Rodgers to thoroughly exploit the New Orleans' defense. Drew Brees and his many weapons can keep the Saints in most any game, but they won't score enough points to cover the spread on Monday night.

  Gimme Green Bay plus the points.

Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3.5): After rocketing to a 4-0 start, the Bills have dropped four straight and Trent Edwards is turning the ball over like crazy. The Chiefs have found an offense for the first time in two years, and will be able to defend well enough against Marshawn Lynch this Sunday to keep this one really close - if not win outright.

  Gimme Kansas City plus the points.

Oakland @ Denver (-9.5): Although Oakland matches up decently well versus the Broncos pass-happy offense, Jay Cutler has the potential to blow up any team on any given Sunday. Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden will need to get the ground game going if Oakland stands any chance of making this one a real game. Alas, Denver has been playing more spirited defense.

  Gimme Denver minus the points.

New England @ Miami (-1.5): The Dolphins shocked most of us with the manner in which they tore up the Patriots defense in New England. The wildcat formation yielded enormous fantasy numbers from Ronnie Brown. But I'm thinking Bill Belichick, with a longer than usual week to prepare, against a divisional opponent that embarrassed his defense, returns the favor this time.

  Gimme New England plus the points.

Chicago @ St. Louis (+9): Matt Forte is a solid candidate for offensive Rookie of the Year honors, facing one of the worst run defenses in the league. Kyle Orton is gradually getting closer to 100% after being knocked out of game action by injury. The Rams have some great young talent at the wide receiver position, but are in terrible shape everywhere else. The offensive line is again this year injury-ravaged and in a shambles, while Steven Jackson is again declared out. I don't see this one remaining close for very long.

  Gimme Chicago minus the points.

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (+8.5): Detroit's desperation for that first victory grows each week. This is a home game for the Lions, Earnest Graham is gone for the year, and Jeff Garcia did his best to give the game away when these two teams played in '07 - which he did.

  Gimme Detroit plus the points.