Against the Odds - Week 12 (Friday Edition)
Nov 23, 2012
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This week’s lines are from USAToday.com (as of Thursday night).
ATS - Against the Spread; SU - Straight Up; O/U - Over/Under
Denver at Kansas City (+10)
In last week's win over the San Diego Chargers, the Bronocs lost running back Willis McGahee for most of the season due to a torn MCL. There is an outside chance he may be able to return sometime in the playoffs. In the meantime, rookie Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball should be able to step up and keep the run game going. Denver has won six of their last seven games and look to feast on the Chiefs who have only one win on the season. Kansas City is going to stick with quarterback Brady Quinn who has a 52.9 QB rating on the season with zero touchdowns and three interceptions.
Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games while the Chiefs are 1-4.
Gimme the Broncos minus the points.
Seattle at Miami (+3)
The Seahawks were on a bye last week and are on a two game winning streak with rookie quarterback Russell Wilson leading the way with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 124 yards and a touchdown in the last two games and looks to keep it going against a Dolphins defense which ranks 9th in the league against the run.
The Dolphins rank 27th in the league against the pass so Wilson shouldn't have a tough time finding Golden Tate downfield for a few big plays. Tate has three receiving touchdowns in his last two games. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been awful in his last two games, throwing only one touchdown with five interceptions. Things won't get any easier against the Seahawks defense which ranks 2nd in the league in total points allowed (16.1 points per game) and 3rd in the league against the pass.
Gimme the Seahawks minus the points.
Tennessee at Jacksonville (O/U 44.5)
Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne, who has taken over for Blaine Gabbert for the rest of the season, has played well when given a chance. Henne threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in last week's overtime loss to the Houston Texans. This week he faces the Titans defense which ranks 31st in the league in points allowed (31.1 points per game). The Jaguars are not much better, ranking 29th in the league (28.9 points per game).
Gimme the Over.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (O/U 50)
The Falcons are averaging 27 points per game, 6th in the NFL while the Buccaneers are averaging 28.7 points per game, good for 5th in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay offense has been on a roll lately, going over the total in their last seven games. Running back Doug Martin should find room to run against a Falcons run defense which ranks 26th in the NFL (130.5 yards per game).
Gimme the Over.
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (-3)
Eli Manning hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 7. Since then, he's thrown five interceptions. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games while the Giants are 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
Gimme the Packers plus the points.
San Francisco at New Orleans (O/U 48.5)
Second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick is expected to make his second career start for San Francisco after leading them to an impressive win over the Bears last week. I could see this game going either way but I expect a lot of points to be scored.
Gimme the Over.
Buffalo at Indianapolis (-3)
Indianapolis took a beating last week against the Patriots, losing 59-24.
The Colts have yet to lose two in a row this season and I expect them to rebound this week with a nice matchup against the Bills who have lost six of their last seven games against the Colts.
Gimme the Colts minus the points.
St. Louis at Arizona (-1)
Cardinals rookie quarterback Ryan Lindley is making his first NFL start after taking over for the ineffective John Skelton last week. The Rams defense should have no problem shutting down the Cardinals offense which ranks 30th in the NFL in points scored (16.3 points per game).
Gimme the Rams plus the points
Pittsburgh -1 over Cleveland
Cincinnati -8 over Oakland
Carolina +3 over Philadelphia
Baltimore -1 over San Diego
Minnesota at Chicago (OFF) - This game is off the board due to the uncertainty of Jay Cutler's availability.
SEASON RECAP (W-L-T)
Total Record: 69-57-4
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