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Against the Odds - Divisional Week

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This week’s lines are from USAToday.com (as of Thursday night).

ATS - Against the Spread; SU - Straight Up; O/U - Over/Under

Lock

Houston at New England (O/U 47.5)


The two teams met back in Week 14 with the Patriots winning 42-14 in New England. I'm expecting the Texans to put up a better fight this week but in the end it won't be enough as the Patriots have had two weeks to prepare for this game. I'm leaning towards the over as both teams have holes in their defense and the offenses should be able to move the ball.

In their last four meetings, the Over is 4-0 ATS.

Gimme the Over.

Game

Green Bay at San Francisco (-3)

San Francisco defensive tackle, Justin Smith, is expected to play with a torn triceps but will not be at full strength, which may affect linebacker Aldon Smith's ability to make plays.  Aldon Smith hasn't had a sack since Justin Smith's injury. I think this game comes down to the quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers versus Colin Kaepernick. In his last four games, Rodgers has 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions and has been in must-win situations many times. Kaepernick has played well this season since taking over for Alex Smith but doesn't have the experience to win a big game. I'm expecting this game to be the most entertaining of the bunch and I like the Packers getting the points on the road.

The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings in San Francisco.

Gimme the Packers plus the points.

Game

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5)

Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is in for a big day against the Falcons run defense which is giving up 123 yards per game, 21st in the league.
Seattle's cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, arguably one of the best duos in the league, should be able to limit Falcon's wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Running back Michael Turner is on has last legs, he hasn't rushed for over 100 yards since Week 9.

I like taking Seattle and the points but would feel more comfortable getting that extra half point so I don't get burned by the hook.

Gimme the Seahawks and the points.

Game

Denver -9.5 over Baltimore

SEASON RECAP (W-L-T)

: 27-21-1
      : 35-20-3
            : 30-24-1
                  : 33-26-2

Total Record: 125-91-7

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