Auction Nuthouse - Part 2 Aug 15, 2008 | More

"They want you to cook the dinner, at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries."

--Bill Parcells

It’s the no-frills Auction Nuthouse, Part 2 for 2008. In this installment, we move from holistic draft strategy to budgeting for specific positions. In order to appease the ADD crowd, I’m taking a meat cleaver to the near 2,000-word epic from previous years. No muss, no fuss. Let’s go.

Disclaimer redux: No player values/projections or detailed budgets. Budgeting is fairly simple, anyway. If you want to be stud-centric, the majority of your cap is going to be spent on three top players, followed by discount talent. If you prefer depth, you’ll avoid most high-priced players and start gathering second-tier talent after the first 25-30 guys are gone. Or you could try a mix of the two: two studs and then midrange talent.

That all brings us to the quote at the top, one of many dandies uttered by Bill Parcells over his long and distinguished career. In the auction draft, you do get to buy your own groceries, and spend your cash in any way you choose. It’s a matter of determining the positions or players you value most for your team, and their relative value to not only the rest of your league, but to sensible cap management. In the auction arena, knowing when to spend your money – or when not to – is the key to surviving amongst the wanna-be Sharks in your league.

QUARTERBACKS

In most leagues, the deck is stacked against the QB position because they touch the ball on every play. They lose points for fumbles and interceptions, and only gain a point for every 25 yards passing. Some leagues only give a QB 4 points for touchdowns. So the common line of thinking was to not waste your money on the QB position unless it’s a sure thing (for the past few years, that sure thing has been Peyton Manning). Hence the $10 QB Theory – Thou shalt not spend more than $10 on a quarterback in your auction draft. I guess it’s the $20 theory for you $200 cap folks out there.

And theory was proven right AGAIN last year. Sure, Tom Brady tore apart the record book, but who was the No. 2 QB? Tony Romo. Cost? A whole $8. Not to mention Derek Anderson at No. 5, who was probably a waiver wire pickup in every league except those in Cleveland. Other than the aforementioned Peyton Manning, the top QBs are never the same from one year to the next, so picking a QB or two out of the Top 8-10 for minimal amounts of money can be a low-cost, high-reward proposition.

But be aware that the landscape has changed. With stud RBs a scarcity in today’s NFL, and a move to RBBC and pass-first offenses, a stud QB has become one of the biggest weapons in fantasy football. So by all means, if you want to spend $15+ or more for a Carson Palmer or a Ben Roethlisberger, go ahead and let rip. But be confident in their viability over a Donovan McNabb, who’s hovering around that $9 mark this year.

Last year, I violated the sanctity of the $10 rule – I got caught bidding up Peyton Manning. But I will hold steadfast to the rule this year... uh, unless Drew Brees is available for $12-$13. Take a look at an Average Auction Value list; you may see some mid-tier QB’s on the cheap that you like, such as Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger. Scoff if you’d like, but it beats shelling out a quarter of your cap on Tom Brady when you could be stocking up on…

RUNNING BACKS

Ah, the lifeblood of fantasy football champions. Spend your money wisely here, people – RB depth is not what it once was thanks to the dreaded RBBC. And the top guys will command large sums of money, so you better like the guy you’re picking. Across the board it seems to be the same five guys in the top tier: Tomlinson, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook and Addai. With those guys you know what you’re getting, big rushing numbers but also large receiving numbers – and no vultures.

The real auction warfare will be found with the second- and third-tier backs this year, and outcomes will depend on where your opponents had specific players ranked. You should be relatively safe with the Barbers, Lynches and Portises of the world, but after that, the slope gets slippery. Frank Gore is a good example – some love him as a Tier 2 back, others cite his injury history and will go Tier 3. Some folks (including the Sharks) are way down on Laurence Maroney, others see him with a larger role in the Pats offense. Fred Taylor was a Tier 3 back last year and had a Tier 2 season for $6. This year more than ever, highlight the backs you want – even if they’re mid-tier guys – and go after them.

If you remember any of last year’s columns, you’ll remember that after a successful depth draft two years ago, I tried the same strategy – only the running backs remaining before I got my butt in gear were crappy and injury-plagued. Hence Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and DeShaun Foster. Fragile Fred saved my season. If you’re depth drafting, don’t take bargains just because they’re bargains – you’ll end up with bargain garbage. Make sure you know why you’re sitting on a player. And after last year’s injuries, make sure you’ve got their handcuffs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

With WRs, my mantra is usually, "if they’ve consistently produced in the past, they will do so again." And it played out last year. But with an added wrinkle – WRs across the board produced like never before. And for cheap – Randy Moss costs $9 and Terrell Owens cost $13. Were there surprises? Absolutely, Braylon Edwards exploded, Brandon Marshall emerged and Roddy White had a big year on a horrible team.

Wide receiver is a position where you will see a lot of busts – Deion Branch and Santana Moss are examples from 2007. Thankfully, there is a tremendous amount of depth at the position, which makes it easier to balance the purchase of a stud with some good depth picks. And there are always veteran receivers (veteran meaning “too old”) available who will have solid seasons. Look where Marvin Harrison and Lavernaeus Coles are ranked this season.

One last thought: More than running backs, a WR’s performance is subject to the performance of his QB. Most money wideouts are so because they have a decent QB feeding them the ball. Braylon Edwards emerged because Derek Anderson emerged. Any Bears receiver stunk because Rex Grossman stunk.

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