Mike Sarmento
Audibles - Focus on the Ws

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Chasing numbers this season ? Think about it. Then Focus on the Ws.

When Marvin Jones posted a stat line last week folks got excited. He was the most acquired player across the board this week. Personally, I didn't make a move for him because the numbers he posted aren't sustainable.

Folks saw a compliment to
A.J. Green and figured he'd be the main beneficiary. In a few of my leagues there were a few big names out on the wire.

While some folks have had success chasing the stat line from the previous week, most have been disappointed the very next week. This case is no exception, as the game film last week allowed
Brent Grimes a look at routes that Jones had scored on. He quickly reacted and raced some 95 yards for the Miami score.

Teams need a better disguise when a player has that much success in a single game.

I started to get email last week from folks who looked at
Andy Dalton 's stat line from last week and wondered if he was a better start than Philip Rivers? I had also heard a guy at work mentioning the very same scenario and it echoed how people want those one week stat lines to repeat a second week.

My answer was very short and to the point.... " Ride your Horses."

I am sure that when you drafted or acquired Rivers this year that you never thought he was going to be one of your horses. I get that because I drafted him in one of my leagues very late thinking he'd be a nice plug-in and back up.

Things didn't quite work out with my number one QB as he lost his center and found himself running for his life. Rivers has traveled from a third tier quarterback into the top-six, and you'll see him inside the top-five before it's all said and done.

One week of
Andy Dalton throwing 5 TD passes doesn't change that a bit. I start Rivers every time and twice on Sunday.

Here is a list of guys that were out there that I have ahead of
Marvin Jones .

1.
Drew Davis Atlanta Falcons WR

Roddy White is still on the mend and with Davis playing the position normally anchored by Julio Jones , He continues to get looks and targets. Last week he posted five catches on seven targets for 77 yards and a score. He did it against a very solid Arizona secondary. Carolina is no slouch, but the targets will be there. Davis is explosive and runs pretty concise routes, He understands how to work within the system and produces when his number is called. He's a good fill-in with tremendous upside especially since it may be weeks until Roddy White is ready.

2.
Kendall Wright Tennessee Titans WR

Based on targets alone he's a good play. Make no mistake, he won't be available in PPR formats, but in a standard format league of mine he was out there. St. Louis is all over the place with when it comes to covering receivers, and Wright is too consistent to be overlooked. The only downside is having Locker as his QB, but serviceable nonetheless.

3.
Marlon Brown Baltimore Ravens WR 

Joe Haden draped all over Torrey Smith is an image that everyone who rosters Brown wants to see including me. I'm guessing that his targets are in the 5-8 range. The last time the Ravens and Browns met, Brown converted 4-of-7 for 45 yards and a TD. Do I have to remind you that John Harbaugh is 5-0 after a bye week in his career?

Chasing numbers rarely pans out, The only case that I could make where it did is with
Julius Thomas . The big tight end was effective from day one and folks that had him on the radar were quick to add after a solid pre season when he exploded in Week 1. Understand that teams will prey on the weaknesses that they see on film. It can be any player at any position. Since you don't have enough insight into the next week based on the stats from last week, I would recommend that you refrain from seeing a big number and jumping on it.
 
There's nothing out there but the land of disappointment for you. I suggest you try a different approach. Pretend you are writing an article and focus on the W's
( Who, What, and Why?)

The Ws

Who: What player are you looking to add? If he's a receiver, who throws it to him? What tier QB is he?

Where does that team rank against that position that is the opponent?

Who is injured in that game?  Is it notable?

Why does this translate into a decent play? Justify why this makes sense.

What is the risk? Can you see other scenarios? Is there any upside?

What is the target distribution? Who has been targeted statistically to date in all games? What's the target average per week?

What else don't I know? Look for any additional info on the depth charts and team media reports.

What is the pass/run ratio? Having a receiver on a run first team is a bummer. Having a running back on a pass heavy team will lead to heavy drinking.

The Hs ( This is your barometer as to if this is logical)

Have they played the opponent before? Where? What was the result?

How many snaps did they play? What packages are they not in?

How much sense does this make over the guys I have on my roster?


Follow these Ws and limit your mistakes. Follow the Hs and understand fantasy football is about consistency, not the one week play. Do your best to let others chase the numbers because folks who chase often drop players that are better than what they grabbed. Be on the lookout for this individual in your league. This can be a tremendous help to you for the post season. There will be a player every week that will break out. That is the good news. Stay with your horses and ride them to the end. If you question one, go through the checklist and explain it to yourself again.


Questions/Comments/Concerns to michaelfsarmento@gmail.com, or follow me on Twitter @AudibleFantasy. Michael Sarmento is a proud member of the Fantasy Sharks Team and Fantasy Sports Writers Association