BetBot Week 7 Oct 19, 2007 | More

Initially built by NASA to set lines for the Las Vegas casinos in the late 50 ’ s (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob), The Sin City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.

The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after San Francisco destroyed Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot ’ s wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.

The Betbot ’ s column is transcribed each week by  Tom Walls, because, “ Typing is a dame ’ s BZZZT job. ”

Greetings to my first deeper sleeper report of the year. I have learned to let the dust settle a bit before looking to the true diamonds in the rough each year. Anyone can look at the first 2 or 3 weeks’ stats and tell you jump on Andre Davis or Derrick Ward, but I like to get some more data points before giving my advice.

So, what have I been up to? Funny you should ask- trying my best to save Britney Spears. Good bleeping Lord, she is a complete train wreck. Now, many of you will smirk, but it wasn’t so long ago, she was the hottest talent on Earth. I no longer have a romantic relationship with her, but feel it is my duty to help her through this time. Not only because we had a child together – but because I felt an obligation to her. I managed her career for awhile, and wanted a nice controlled career for her, but it wasn’t in the cards.

I have to tell you, I have seen my share of starlets through hard times, not always with happy endings. Well…our Sessions of Sweet always featured Happy Endings, but…you know…this is a family column and … Look, do I really need to hit you over the bleeping head with every possible double entendre?

One specific career (and woman) I took a tight grip on was Samantha Fox. Some of you may remember this former Page Three bombshell who had a nice singing career in the mid to late 80s. I was tooling around…BZZZT… London after my friend Andrew Lloyd Weber asked me to retool a musical he was working on based on The Creature from the Black Lagoon…I didn’t understand how an amphibious creature would be able to sing all that well, and crushed Andy’s (I call him Andy) feelings. Long story short, I told him to ditch the frog and threw the book The Phantom of the Opera on his lap…the rest they say is history.

Back to Samantha Fox, I was idling around Piccadilly Circus after that fateful meeting when I saw that day’s Page Three girl – of course, Ms. Fox. I took an immediate romantic interest in her, and wooed her. She was young, but had a good head on her shoulders, and a pretty good voice. I got her auditions, and soon enough she had a nice batch of hits including Touch Me (I Want Your Body) and Naughty Girls (Need Love Too). By the way, the parenthetical titles were my idea (could you tell?). Our personal relationship was a short tumultuous affair, punctuated by intense Sessions of Sweet and intense jealous rages. I want to get something straight here, I never cheated on Sammy (I call her Sammy)…much anyway.

Why do I tell you this? Simple…This career was the sort of career I had in mind for Britney Spears. I knew she couldn’t handle the fame, very few people can. She could have had a bright, brief career…BZT… and gone on to live in relative obscurity, with a nice stipend from her years in the public eye. I blame Justin Timberlake, he threw a   bunch of hoo-koo cha-cha nonsense about global superstardom in her ear when they were still Mouseketeers. One day, Timberlake…One day!!!

I want to start this season (hey, the best things in life …you gotta bleeping wait for) by kicking off with my first Betbot’s Wide Receiver Confidence Index…

People say to me:

BetBot, how do you do it? How do you pick such great fantasy deeper sleepers?

BetBot, how can you consistently find those hidden gems?

BetBot, can you help me find deeper sleepers?

BetBot, can you blow on these dice so I can make the point?

Well, I can’t blow on dice, because I don’t breathe. And I can’t fully explain my internally programmed heuristics and algorithms for predicting a player’s success, nor would I want to...but I can give you some ...BZT... help.

The main factors I look at when trying to find those hidden gems at receiving positions is the confidence a QB has in his receiver. Now, I’m not in the locker room, or in the players’ meetings, so I don’t know what’s being said - but we all have access to statistics.  I will share with you each week my tailor made Confidence Index. This index, I believe, gives…BZZT… a simple, easy to understand view of factors a team or QB makes when determining who should get the ball.

Straight up, here is the calculation for the unweighted Confidence Index:

(Rc/Tg) + 1.3*(Pos/Tg)

Where

Rc = Year to Date Receptions by the Receiver

Tg = Year to Date Targets at the Receiver

Pos = Year to Date Positive plays by the receiver - positive plays are first downs and touchdowns

Basically, this boils down the confidence a QB has that once he throws the ball, the receiver will:

A)     Catch it

B)     Make something positive happen after the catch (first down or touchdown)

I give 30% more weight to a receiver catching the ball for a first down or TD than I do for a simple reception, and I give the same weight to a touchdown. This is because I view touchdowns by receivers as plays where some fluky things happen (more so than a RB, say).  I don't want to overweight TDs, but it is important to capture.  Also, you guys already bleeping…BZT… know about receivers with a lot of TDs.  We’re talking DEEPER sleepers here, capiche?

Why is this an important metric for finding fantasy players who can surprise?  Because NFL coaches are looking at this kind of data, too - maybe not in statistical form like I've done here, but they're noticing which receivers on their team are making the most of their chances.  You can be sure that a player who stands out as a first down machine will get more passes thrown their way in the coming weeks - and as every smart fantasy player knows, opportunity is 80% of performance.  You have to get the ball to score points.

(By the way – the answer to the apparently rhetorical double entendre question is – Yes, I do need to point out every possible double entendre in these columns – I really bleeping do)

So here you go…The Sin City Betbot Receiver Confidence Index for week 6…

That’s all for now, and remember – Showgirls and gin , my friends, showgirls and …BZZT…gin.