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A Smart Attack


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Below are two players in the top 25 that others seem to love more than I do, and two players outside the top 25 that I have a man crush on.

(ADP = Average Draft Position)

Overvalued

Alfred Morris, ADP of 11: Now I have Morris in a keeper league and I am going to exchange my third-round pick for him without any problems. But his average draft position is between the 10th and 12th pick in current mock drafts; I have been seeing him selected as high as seventh overall. Now I think your first two picks need to be sure winners, not question marks. Without the read option as a Washington Redskins staple, how can we project for this kid to dominate? And why do we suddenly trust coach Mike Shanahan again? He is less stable at running back than any other coach. I am not going to say that he does not get the ball 300 times, but it seems like a Shonn Greene double-feature might be in the making.

Chris Johnson, ADP of 23: Are you seriously going to take that chance? He has way too much downside for your second pick in any draft. People keep living the dream that he is suddenly going to get that step back and carry the load. He is not that guy. He had his success similar to Jamaal Charles when he slaughtered the league by storm before teams started to game plan for him. I would put Charles in the same boat, but I have a feeling that coach Andy Reid is going to find a way to get Charles going.

Others I don’t love at their current ADP: Trent Richardson (10), Demaryius Thomas (24), Stevan Ridley (21), Steven Jackson (13).

Undervalued

Ryan Mathews, ADP of 51: I know the stat sheets … and I know you think he is fragile. However, there were some games last year where this kid was electric and started to take over the game. He has received tweets from fans hoping he would die. And I say if he dies he is coming back to life as a nightmare for defenses in an up tempo Mike McCoy offense that can use Mathews in the ‘flats’ as a receiver and on the ground as slippery ‘I out flanked you’ running back. Willis McGahee was dominant under McCoy’s scheme, and in 2011 the Denver Broncos led the league in rushing. Watch out for this kid this year!

Dwayne Bowe, ADP of 44: I have heard his talk this year that he is going to lead the league in touchdowns and receptions. I am not getting on that train, but he is a big and dominant receiver that can take over the game. Bowe is going to do well with an offensive minded coach and an upgrade at quarterback. Kansas City is not the dog that you think they are; they have some real talent. The Chiefs are probably not playoff bound, but Bowe is certain to achieve better things this year, posting Braylon Edwards-like 2007 numbers (80 receptions, 1,289 yards, 16 TD).

Others I love at their current ADP: LeSean McCoy (8), Antonio Brown (65), Pierre Garcon (61), David Wilson (33).

Sleeper/Flyers: Vincent Brown (123), Isaiah Pead (111), Kendall Wright (160), Andre Roberts (158), Mike Gillislee (206), Brandon Myers (125), Jake Ballard (none).