Don’t Get Lost in the Coaching Carrousel Paul Agruso, Fantasy Football Guest Writer Jul 10, 2007 | More

Don’t Get Lost in the Coaching Carousel

Every year, the offseason brings us a flurry of coaching changes across the NFL.   Each of these new head coaches brings their own philosophy and methods to their new teams.  Many fantasy owners dismiss these coaching changes as having a dramatic impact on the fantasy values of players in these changing situations; however, ignoring the impact of a new offensive philosophy or system can be a tragic error for even the most astute fantasy owner.   Just ask last year’s Lamont Jordan owners how much they took into account the arrival of Art Shell when deciding to pick him in the first round of their fantasy drafts (Yes I know there were many other problems with Lamont last year including the offensive line).

There were several head coaching changes in the 2007 offseason, including the Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and San Diego Chargers.  

The following will analyze the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons head coaching changes that could have the most significant impact on fantasy players’ values as a result of their changing situations:

 
Arizona Cardinals

New Coach:  Ken Whisenhunt

Exiting Coach: Denny Green

The arrival of Ken Whisenhunt should bring a touch of the Steelers power run game to Arizona.   Whisenhunt’s offensive staff includes former Cowboys passing coordinator Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, former Steelers assistant coach Russ Grimm.   

Ken Whisenhunt’s system will bring a change from Denny Green’s pass happy offense over the past few years that have resulted in significantly inflated receiving numbers for both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The new coach should emphasize the run a lot more in games and gear the offense as a more balanced one.  Of course, this balance is dependent on the improvement in the Cardinal offensive line, which was one of the worst in the NFL in 2006.

As far as impact on fantasy players, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin could be in for a drop in production if the offense indeed becomes more balanced.   Matt Leinart’s effectiveness as a NFL quarterback should increase; however, his fantasy production potential should be less than it was under Denny Green.   Edgerrin James should benefit from more of a focus on the run, but this benefit will largely depend on the improvement on the offensive line this coming season.

Atlanta Falcons

New Coach: Bobby Petrino

Exiting Coach: Jim Mora, Jr.

With the arrival of Bobby Petrino, the era of trying to use Michael Vick in a West Coach Offense quickly ended.  The offense will look much different next season as Petrino has gotten rid of the zone blocking schemes for the offensive line, and shifted the short timing routes of Mora’s West Coast offense to more field stretching vertical passing routes.   The Falcons will try to have the look of more of a power running game type team, despite the use of two smallish backs in Jerrious Norwood and Warrick Dunn.   Petrino hired Hue Jackson (former Bengal’s wide receivers coach) as his offensive coordinator.

 As far as fantasy relevance, Michael Vick (provided he isn’t suspended or in jail) should benefit from the change in system as he goes back to running an offense similar to the one he thrived under Dan Reeves with.   Both Norwood and Dunn should benefit as well from the changes in the run game; however, due to Norwood’s superior explosiveness he should emerge as the feature back by seasons end.