John T. Georgopoulos
Fantasy Forecast - Offensive Overachievers

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I recently took a few extra minutes to see if my supercomputer, Mighty Max, could be tweaked to unearth some offensive gems. As is usually the case, the results were interesting and provided some excellent insight.

I decided to use the following criteria for my search parameters:

  • a three-year view of the stats (for stability)
  • players whose performance had improved each year (for quality)
  • a WCOFF score which exceeded the positional average in 2013 (for significance)

Mighty Max was able to highlight several players likely to continue their upward trends. A few may be familiar, others not; according to Max, all of them will likely improve their performances this year. Here’s the resulting set of players Max believes will continue to post improved fantasy numbers in 2014:

As with all statistical analysis applied to human actions, it is not enough to just look at the numbers. You need to have an understanding of the situation of each player.

Quarterbacks

The names on the quarterback list are not all that surprising, with the exception of perhaps Carson Palmer. Palmer has been largely an after-thought for most fantasy owners. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting he’s a QB1; rather, he makes for a great late-round QB2.

Running Backs

An interesting list of runners. Knowshon Moreno had a breakthrough season in 2013, but he’s off to a rocky start in Miami and has fallen behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart. Bilal Powell and Shane Vereen have been improving their performances year over year, but simply do not get enough chances to be anything more than moderate players in their respective teams’ running back by committees. Jacquizz Rodgers doesn’t figure to increase his playing time this season, and it looks as if Marshawn Lynch may be reaching his plateau.

That leaves me liking Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, and (in points per reception leagues especially) Danny Woodhead. Charles and Murray both make fantasy owners a bit nervous due to their fragility, but I wouldn’t let that prevent me from drafting either of those guys. Woodhead is just one of those guys who toiled for a few seasons and has finally gotten coaches to realize that he’s a valuable asset.


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