Fantasy Forecast: Consistency Rankings
Aug 26, 2013
More articles from John T. Georgopoulos|
One of the most difficult tasks in head-to-head fantasy leagues is trying to determine who the “hot” and “cold” players will be in any given week. You can’t use historical or seasonal averages because, well … by their very definition, averages do not tell you how the average was achieved.
Years ago, I implored
Mighty Max, the Sports Grumblings supercomputer, to implement a statistical methodology to quantify player consistency. Mind you, I wasn’t looking for “Drew Brees averages six 300-yard games a season” or “Adrian Peterson consistently starts the season slowly” statements, because they are worthless when filling out weekly lineups —and are usually the province of hack fantasy writers who have bought authoritative-sounding domain names.[
Editor's note: FantasySharks is not an authoritative-sounding domain name.]
Max came up with what is now a critical component of our Best Damn Draft Method 2013 : the industry innovation known as the Sports Grumblings’ Consistency Rankings (CR). To help illustrate the value of the CR, consider the following hypothetical situation of two quarterbacks over a four-week period:
Who’s the quarterback you’d want on your fantasy team? Both Chucker and Thrower have amassed 1,000 total passing yards; both average 250 yards a game.
But here’s where the CR becomes important: Thrower’s
CR weighs in at 129.09; Chucker’s would be 21.98. The
CR would accurately tell us that Chucker is the steadier performer (the
CR, the steadier the player).
So what is the CR, and how is it calculated?
The CR is the degree to which a set of data points varies from its mean. For those who are mathematically inclined, the CR is a “coefficient of variance:”
For those of you who just want to get to the bottom line, just trust me when I say that the math works. I am, after all, a descendant of Archimedes and Euclid …
The larger the CR is, the more inconsistent the player; the smaller the CR the more consistent the player.