Fantasy Forecast: Consistency Rankings
Aug 26, 2013
More articles from John T. Georgopoulos
One of the most difficult tasks in head-to-head fantasy leagues is trying to determine who the “hot” and “cold” players will be in any given week. You can’t use historical or seasonal averages because, well … by their very definition, averages do not tell you how the average was achieved.
Years ago, I implored
Mighty Max, the Sports Grumblings supercomputer, to implement a statistical methodology to quantify player consistency. Mind you, I wasn’t looking for “Drew Brees averages six 300-yard games a season” or “Adrian Peterson consistently starts the season slowly” statements, because they are worthless when filling out weekly lineups —and are usually the province of hack fantasy writers who have bought authoritative-sounding domain names.[
Editor's note: FantasySharks is not an authoritative-sounding domain name.]
Who’s the quarterback you’d want on your fantasy team? Both Chucker and Thrower have amassed 1,000 total passing yards; both average 250 yards a game.
But here’s where the CR becomes important: Thrower’s
CR weighs in at 129.09; Chucker’s would be 21.98. The
CR would accurately tell us that Chucker is the steadier performer (the
CR, the steadier the player).
For those of you who just want to get to the bottom line, just trust me when I say that the math works. I am, after all, a descendant of Archimedes and Euclid …
The larger the CR is, the more inconsistent the player; the smaller the CR the more consistent the player.
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