Inside The Gamebook - Week 3
Sep 22, 2012
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Victor Cruz, A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson and Jimmy Graham have all seen double-digit targets through two games, and Cruz is currently leading the league with 28 targets. Green’s 23 targets are encouraging regarding his potential based on opportunity; however, he is only averaging 10.7 yards per reception while converting 52 percent of his targets into receptions (average of .78 points per target), which is the lowest average per target out of the Top 30 ranked receivers. While these numbers are a little troublesome regarding his production, some deep balls could drive these numbers up very quick, and you have to expect those sooner rather than later.
Jackson has seen 20 targets through two games but he is converting a below-average 45 percent of his targets into receptions. Despite the low conversion rate, he is ranked sixth in the league in yards per reception (19.4) and is averaging 1.15 points per target. His conversion rate will get better as he and Josh Freeman become more comfortable, and his production should be on par with his career production while in San Diego.
Other receivers with more than 14 targets through two games who have a below-average conversion rate include: Stevie Johnson (40 percent), but Johnson is ranked 11th in the league in yards per reception at 18.5 and he also has a 33 percent receiving touchdown percentage. These numbers are encouraging regarding his potential if he gets his conversion rate up to, or above, 50 percent.
Santonio Holmes is at a 37 percent conversion rate and is averaging .79 points per target. While these numbers are concerning, he did miss time in the preseason and could have timing issues with Mark Sanchez. But what looks to be more troublesome is the erratic play from Sanchez, which could limit his potential upside.
Larry Fitzgerald is at a 31 percent conversion rate and is averaging .38 points per target. These numbers are very troublesome and the problems are his surroundings – the offensive line, the quarterback position and running backs have all played poorly so far – and this will limit his potential to produce on a consistent level.
Fred Davis appears to have become an afterthought in the Washington passing game and is ranked 24th in targets to tight ends. He is averaging .59 points per target and is only converting 44 percent of his targets into receptions.
Percy Harvin is averaging a low 10.4 yards per reception but he is converting an above-average 86 percent of his targets into receptions, which is the highest percentage in the league for receivers with more than 14 targets. He has seven rushing attempts and leads all receivers with 25 total touches. He also leads the league in yards after catch with 153 yards.
Andrew Hawkins has converted an above-average 83 percent of his targets into receptions, averaging 1.66 points per target, and he is second in the league in yards after catch with 131 yards.
Demaryius Thomas has converted an above-average 72 percent of his targets into receptions, averaging 1.66 points per target, and he is ranked third in the league in yards after catch with 122 yards.
Steve Smith has converted 67 percent of his targets into receptions, averaging 1.4 points per target, and he is ranked fourth in the league in yards after catch with 103 yards.
Pierre Garcon converted all four of his targets in Week 1, averaging four points per target and is ranked fifth in yards after catch with 101 yards.
Other receivers or tight ends that are making the most of limited targets that are worth monitoring or adding include: Brandon Gibson who has averaged 2.44 points per target. Mike Williams has averaged two points per target. Brandon LaFell has averaged 1.84 points per target. Donnie Avery has averaged 1.16 points per target while quietly posting 18 total targets. Heath Miller has averaged 1.89 points per target. Martellus Bennett has averaged 1.43 points per target. Brandon Myers has a 100 percent conversion rate on 11 targets and averaged 1.36 points per target. Kyle Rudolph has averaged 1.33 points per target.
The Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers have put points on the board, whether scoring a touchdown or kicking a field goal on 57 percent of their possessions followed by the Washington Redskins, Houston Texans and New England Patriots (all with 48 percent). The teams that have converted the least amount of their possessions into points are the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins (both at 23 percent) followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys (25 percent) and the Oakland Raiders (27 percent). Philadelphia has turned the ball over a league-high nine times followed by Kansas City (six turnovers), and five teams are tied with five turnovers. Houston, Atlanta and San Francisco have no turnovers, and five teams are tied with just one turnover.
Running Backs Total Touches: Arian Foster 61, LeSean McCoy 53, Marshawn Lynch 49, Reggie Bush 49, Doug Martin 48, Alfred Morris 44, Stevan Ridley 44, Trent Richardson 43, BenJarvus Green-Ellis 43, Darren McFadden 41, Willis McGahee 40.
Running Backs with 10-Plus Yard Rushes: Frank Gore 9, Stevan Ridley 9, Reggie Bush 7, CJ Spiller 6, LeSean McCoy 6, Maurice Jones-Drew 6, Ray Rice 5, Alfred Morris 5, 7 players tied with 4.
Red Zone Touches: Arian Foster 13, Curtis Brinkley 11, Marshawn Lynch 9, Alfred Morris 8, Doug Martin 8, Jonathan Dwyer 8, Adrian Peterson 8, Jackie Battle 7, Stevan Ridley 6, Shonn Greene 6, Ryan Williams 6, 5 players tied with 5.
Red Zone Looks: Sidney Rice 6, Martellus Bennett 5, Heath Miller 5, Percy Harvin 4, Malcolm Floyd 4, Reggie Wayne 4, Jimmy Graham 4, Dennis Pitta 4, Anthony Fasano 4, Dante Rosario 4, 17 players tied with 3.