Is Zac Stacy a Late 1st Round Pick in 2014?
Dec 20, 2013
More articles from Eric Hartvigson and Jim Bukowski
BUKOWSKI – ZAC STACY IS NOT A LATE 1st ROUND PICK IN 2014
Wow, talk about being a prisoner of the moment! Eric is ready to take Zac Stacy in the late 1st round of 2014 fantasy drafts. Granted, Stacy has been one of 2013's feel good stories as a 5th round pick that has worked his way into a starting role as a rookie and is on pace to rush for 976 yards and seven touchdowns. Based on that production, Eric can't wait to grab him at the end of the first round. Tap the brakes, brother, tap the brakes.
You would think a rookie that ran for 1.613 yards along with 13 TDs in 2012, would be a lock to be a late 1st round pick in 2013. Wouldn't you? Well, he wasn't. Alfred Morris is the running back who posted those gaudy stats last season, yet, he was not a late 1st round pick in 2013 fantasy drafts. So, why wasn't he? Because the 1st round is a hefty price to pay for a one-hit wonder. And Stacy is going to be a more risky one-hit wonder than Morris. Last year Morris averaged 4.8 yards per carry compared to Stacy's 4.2 this year.
Let's also note that Morris is on pace to rush for 1,286 yards along with seven touchdowns in 2013. And that's during a train wreck of a season for Washington. Yet, Morris will not be a late 1st round pick in 2014. Meanwhile, Eric is stoked about spending his 1st round pick on a player who won't rush for 1,000 yards during the 2013 season.
You can't win your league in the first round but you sure can lose it. And that's what Eric is going to do if he takes Stacy in the late first round. Good fantasy teams are all about finding value on draft day and there is absolutely no value to be had by drafting Stacy in the first round. In fact, Stacy will have to put up All-Pro type numbers just to justify his draft status. That's no way to win a championship.
I could go over the top-12 players for 2014, but what's the point, do a little research on this thing called the internet and you'll see that not one site, or expert, has Stacy in his top-12. Oh, except for Eric.
HARTVIGSON – REBUTTAL
Forever the statistics bender, Jim continues to manipulate the numbers in his favor. Yes, if you forecast Stacy’s rushing production over the final two games he is on pace for 976 yards and seven touchdowns. However, Jim fails to recognize that Stacy rode the pine the first four weekS of the season while the coaching staff evaluated incumbents Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead.
Conveniently, Jim's statistical analysis has also omitted Stacy’s 113 receiving yards and one receiving TD (seven total). Examining the whole picture we find that the Rams' rookie phenom is averaging 96 all-purpose yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. When we extrapolate his true numbers over a full 16 game season, it equates to 1,536 yards and 11 TDs (13.7 fantasy points per game), rock solid fantasy RB1 numbers easly worth a late first round pick.
When Jim mentioned Alfred Morris I was perplexed. Although my memory has faded, I was under the impression Morris was a late first round pick? I was nearly right. According the Fantasy Sharks, Morris had a preseason ADP at pick 2.01 (first pick of the 2nd round), the same range where I’m suggesting we take Stacy (I’d love to play in whatever league Jim is hosting).
Coincidentally, Morris is currently ranked 15th on RB scoring. Not great considering he was 8th until the Redskins meltdown four weeks ago. However, I’m sure there are plenty of Ray Rice, MJD or Doug Martin owners that would love to be starting Morris this weekend.
Jim should know by now that I don’t listen to the so called “experts,” and I don’t read any other websites. I watch football, stay glued to the daily player news and read FantasySharks.com. From that info I follow the #1 rule in fantasy football, always trust your gut. If Jim wants to roll the dice and bank his 2014 season on Chris Johnson or DeMarco Murray, then be my guest. These are boom or bust candidates that have proven to wreck fantasy seasons in the past (I know firsthand). While no player is 100% safe, for my money Stacy has all the characteristics of what we look for in a late first round pick with championship aspirations.
<< prev | 1 | 2 |next >>