Matt Forte's Sophomore Slump Oct 2, 2009 | More

The owners of Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte are understandably a frustrated, nervous bunch right now. Determined to secure a can’t-miss centerpiece for their fantasy teams, many of them confidently had chosen Forte with a top-10 selection -- some owners had even drafted the former Tulane star with a No. 1 overall pick -- but Forte’s numbers have been disappointing to say the least. Some of the more bitter owners have been harsh in their assessment of Forte’s performance to date, already dubbing him the biggest fantasy bust of 2009. The talented second-year pro currently ranks an abysmal No. 29 in rushing.

Is it fair to say Forte is mired in a dreaded sophomore slump? The terms “sophomore slump” or “sophomore jinx” are used commonly to describe the disappointing second-year performances of athletes who are coming off stellar rookie campaigns. A wide variety of foreseen and unforeseen factors can contribute to a football player’s sophomore slump, including injuries, apathy, team personnel changes, scheme changes and coaching changes. By that definition, Forte is undoubtedly enduring a sophomore jinx. What is causing it? Can Forte rebound in time to save his owners?

FORTE’S 2009 PRESEASON STUD EXPECTATIONS

Desperately in need of a workhorse running back, the Bears landed Forte with their second-round selection in the 2008 NFL Draft, and he undoubtedly exceeded even their expectations. Toiling away in a run-first offense with a piecemeal offensive line and a token-at-best passing game that struggled to keep enemy defenses honest, the then-rookie Forte touched the ball 379 times in 16 games played (23.7 touches per outing), rushing 316 times for 1,238 yards (3.92 yards per carry) and eight rushing touchdowns, and -- this is what owners in PPR leagues really like -- catching 63 passes for 477 yards and four touchdowns. Forte averaged an impressive 107.2 total yards and 0.8 total touchdowns per contest.

Understandably dazzled by the Bears’ offseason offensive upgrades and by Forte’s rookie numbers, many owners and fantasy football pundits alike had high expectations for his 2009 season. Even with running back-by-committee becoming the norm in the NFL, Forte still was expected to receive a huge majority of the touches in the Chicago backfield. The Bears also pulled off what was a rare blockbuster trade for them, acquiring the cannon-armed Jay Cutler (and some rookie wide receiver talent) to stretch the field and keep opposing defenses from focusing solely on Forte. They also re-tooled their offensive line, installing three new starters. Despite the changes, hopes that were high for Forte in the summer heat of August have wilted in the early autumn chill of October. Forte has amassed just 59 carries for 150 yards (a measly 2.4 yards per carry) and 11 receptions for 73 yards without scoring a rushing or receiving touchdown. Here is a game-by-game breakdown:

• Week 1 -- Green Bay Packers 21 Chicago Bears 15

Forte: 25 carries for 55 yards with zero touchdowns. No receptions.

• Week 2 -- Chicago Bears 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Forte: 13 carries for 29 yards, five receptions for 33 yards with zero touchdowns.

• Week 3 -- Chicago Bears 25 Seattle Seahawks 19

Forte: 21 carries for 66 yards, six receptions for 40 yards with zero touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the offseason changes the Bears had made to help Forte -- along with some other unrelated circumstances -- have dragged down his fantasy production.

1. Familiarity -- Forte is not a mystery to anyone this season. Enemy defensive coordinators are scheming to shut him down and take their chances with the rest of the Chicago offense.

2. Jay Cutler is struggling -- This goes hand-in-hand with the familiarity thing. Cutler, as mentioned, was acquired to give the Bears a productive, field-stretching passing attack that would prevent opposing defenses from focusing solely on Forte. However, Cutler is still learning a new offense and is still acquainting himself with a new receiver corps that is far less talented than the one he left behind in Denver. Enemy defenders have been able to neutralize Forte and take their chances with the Chicago passing game.

3. Forte’s health -- By all accounts, Forte is running as hard as he did last season. There are whispers, however, that Forte is not 100 percent healthy, despite his claims to the contrary. Forte suffered a hamstring injury during the preseason, but he insists the impairment healed a while ago. If you recall, Ryan Grant (Packers) suffered a hamstring injury during the 2008 preseason, and it hindered him for two months. Forte also suffered a knee injury in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Since he is expected to start in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions, the injury is apparently not serious.

4. Revamped Chicago offensive line -- The Bears’ decision to retool their offensive line surprisingly did not receive much preseason press, but I suspect this is a major reason why Forte is struggling. The O-line features three new starters: future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace (free agent) at left tackle, left guard Frank Omiyale (free agent) and right tackle Chris Williams (2008 first-round selection). Although the 33-year-old Pace is still an above-average pass protector, his run-blocking has declined. Omiyale and Williams are natural left tackles, which means they are better pass-blockers than run-blockers.

MY PREDICTION FOR FORTE

Forte’s sophomore slump, in my opinion, will not last the entire season. Assuming the health concerns about Forte are more exaggeration and media hype than fact, I think some better days are ahead for him. The Chicago offensive line should start to jell at midseason and provide better blocking, even though Omiyale and Williams are not the ideal fit for their respective positions. Cutler and the passing game also should improve, diverting the pressure and defensive attention away from Forte. Do not forget -- Forte is a threat as both a runner and receiver. If he is struggling as a runner, Forte usually makes up the yardage in the passing game.

Nevertheless, I would not expect top-five fantasy back numbers from Forte, and he probably will be hard pressed to crack the top 10. Although I am not a schedule-obsessed fantasy owner, I believe, like many of you, that matchups play a significant role in player production. Heading into the regular season, Forte’s schedule looked like one of the softest in the league -- I suspect that is why some owners drafted him with their 1.01 selections -- but that is not the case now.

The Bears will face the tough defenses of Philadelphia, Minnesota (twice) and Baltimore. However, Arizona, Cincinnati, San Francisco and Green Bay also look vastly improved. Atlanta, Cleveland and St. Louis look like the only softer matchups, and Chicago’s other game against Detroit comes in Week 17, after most fantasy leagues have wrapped up for the season.

If you own Forte -- I say this to all owners of stud players who are struggling -- I would not trade him unless you receive a very generous offer. The odds are against you receiving fair value for him. Since Forte, in my opinion, is no longer worthy of stud status, I also would not be afraid to bench him against the tougher defenses on Chicago’s schedule. If you do not own Forte, he looks like an interesting buy-low prospect. If you have a loaded roster, float a trade offer to the Forte owner in your league and see what happens.