NFL Conference Championship Week: Scoring Trends of 2009 Jan 19, 2010 | More

Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of the Brew Crew Corner. It’s now down to four teams. In the NFC will we see Brett Favre do another “Pants on the Ground” dance or will the Saints go marching into the Super Bowl? On the AFC side it’s the rookies - Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene - who are holding the glass slipper. Will this Cinderalla team beat Peyton Manning and the could-have-been perfect Colts?

Jets at Colts

Do the Jets have another upset special? They will be the biggest underdogs again this weekend as they face the top-seeded Colts. This will be a tighter game then people expect as the Jets defense is playing at a high level and that will keep them in this game. In the end, Peyton Manning’s experience is the X-factor here and the Colts will punch the first ticket to Miami.

Prediction: Colts 21, Jets 14

Vikings at Saints

These two teams match up well. Both teams combined to score an average of 30 points during the season while holding their opponent to an average of 20 points. This is going to be a game of who can outscore who the most. Turnovers will be key in this one as both sides don’t want to give the other a short field advantage. It’s hard to pick a winner here but the Brett Favre magic may prevail once again. I see this ending with a long drive and a field goal with time expiring.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Saints 30

SCORING TRENDS

This season was a down year for scoring in the NFL. Touchdowns were down in every category except for receiving touchdowns. Here are the scoring and touchdown breakdowns for the past three NFL seasons.

One big trend this season is how bad the kicking game was. Even the clutch kickers struggled this season. We saw that in the divisional game between the Chargers and the Jets where Nate Kaeding missed three attemps, the same he missed all season. The kicking percentage for field goals was down to 81.4. The number of blocked field goals remained about the same over the past three seasons but what surprised me was the 15 blocked extra points, which was five times more than last season.

Over the last three seasons, we have seen changes in scoring by position. The quarterback, kicker and defense/special teams have all dropped in average FPTs (fantasy points), while running back, wide receiver and tight ends had better FPTs from the previous year. Here are the breakdowns of how each position finished and how they compared from 2007-2009.

QB Position:

The top overall QB in 2007 was Tom Brady who scored 391 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top 10 QBs had two 300+ FPTs. The next seven QBs finished between 259-292 FPTs. Jay Cutler finished 10^th with less than 250 FPTs (239). In that season, 15 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall QB in 2008 was Drew Brees who scored 333 FPTs for the season. That year, the Top 10 QBs had three 300+ FPTs. The next six QBs finished between 252-299 FPTs. Tyler Thigpen, who finished with 236 FPTs, was the only QB to finish with less than 250 FPTs. In that season, 21 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall QB in 2009 was Aaron Rodgers who scored 363 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 QBs had five 300+ FPTs. The next five QBs finished between 295-265 FPTs. This season, 19 QBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 QB average: 2007 – 286.9 FPTs, 2008 – 285.2 FPTs, 2009 – 265.6 FPTs.

RB Position:

The top overall RB in 2007 was Brian Westbrook who scored 412 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top 10 RBs had two 400+ FPTs. The next two RBs finished between 310-327 FPTs. The last six RBs finished between 256-296 FPTs. In that season, 21 RBs finished with 200+ FPTs.

The top overall RB in 2008 was Matt Forte who scored 350 FPTs for the season. That year, no one had 400+ FPTs. The next nine RBs scored between 301-344 FPTs. That season, 23 RBs scored 200+ FPTs.

The top overall RB in 2009 was Chris Johnson who scored 450 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 RBs had just one RB with 400+ FPTs (Johnson). The next four RBs finished between 311-377 FTPs. The last five RBs finished between 274-293 FPTs. This season, 24 RBs finished with 200+ FPTs.
 
Three-year Top 10 RB average: 2007 – 311.7 FPTs, 2008 – 256.2 FPTs, 2009 – 326.9 FPTs.

WR Position:

The top overall WR in 2007 was Randy Moss who scored 378 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top 10 WRs had two 300+ FPTs. The next eight WR finished between 270-299 FPTs. In that season, 21 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

The top overall WR was 2008 was Andre Johnson who scored 314 FPTs for the season. That year, the top WRs had two 300+ FPTs. The next six finished between 251-278 FPTs. The last two WRs had 242 FPTs. That season, 20 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

The top overall WR in 2009 was once again Andre Johnson who scored 306 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 WRs had one WR with 300+ FPTs (Johnson). The next nine WR finished between 255-281 FPTs. This season, 21 WRs scored 200+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 WR average: 2007 – 296.9 FPTs, 2008 – 266.8 FPTs, 2009 – 274.1 FPTs.
 

TE Position:

The top overall TE in 2007 was Jason Witten who scored 245 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top TEs had four 200+ FPTs. The next three TEs finished between 151-187 FPTs. The last two TEs finished between 130-135 FPTs. In that season, 15 TEs scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall TE in 2008 was Tony Gonzalez who scored 254 FPTs for the season. That year, the Top 10 TEs had one 200+ FPTs. The next five TEs finished between 162-196 FPTs. The last four TEs finished between 133-141 FPTs. That season, 18 TEs scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall TE in 2009 was Dallas Clark who scored 263 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 TEs had six TEs with 200+ FPTs. The next four TEs finished between 163-188 FPTs. This season, 19 TEs scored 100+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 TE average: 2007 – 184.2 FPTs, 2008 – 168.6 FPTs, 2009 – 206.3 FPTs.

K Position:

The top overall PK in 2007 was Mason Crosby who scored 178 FPTs for the season. In that year, the Top 10 Ks had nine 150+ FPTs. The last K finished with 146 FPTs. In that season, 28 Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall K in 2008 was Stephen Gostkowski who scored 185 FPTs for the season. That year, the top Ks had 13 150+ FPTs. In that season, 30 Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

The top overall K in 2009 was David Akers who scored 172 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 Ks had nine with 150+ FPTs. The next-last K finished with 145 FPTs. This season, 26 Ks scored 100+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 PK average: 2007 – 184.2 FPTs, 2008 – 165.5 FPTs, 2009 – 156.6 FPTs.

DEF Position:

The top overall DEF in 2007 was the Chargers who scored 250 FPTs for the season. That year, the top DEFs had one 250+ FPTs. The next seven DEFs finished between 204-138 FPTs. The last two DEFs finished between 199-197 FPTs. In that season, 26 DEFs scored 150+ FPTs.

The top overall DEF in 2008 was the Eagles who scored 236 FPTs for the season. That year, the top DEF had no 250+ FPTs. The next four DEFs finished between 201-235 FPTs. The last five DEFs finished between 189-199 FPTs. That season, 18 DEFs scored 150+ FPTs.

The top overall DEF in 2009 was the Packers who scored 228 FPTs for the season. This year, the Top 10 DEFs had no DEF with 250+ FPTs. The top five DEFs finished between 205-228 FPTs. The last five DEFs finshed between 198-182 FPTs. This season, 24 DEFs scored 150+ FPTs.

Three-year Top 10 DEF average: 2007 – 214.7 FPTs, 2008 – 208.1 FPTs, 2009 – 203.1 FPTs.

Good luck to those with teams and fantasy players still in the playoffs.

Cheers!