On Second Thought...Week 2
Sep 10, 2013
More articles from Rick Olson|
Slow down, take it easy, hold your horses, cool your jets, slow your roll, how many ways can you tell a person to relax? Take the hint and for you own sake don’t make me bust out the Frankie Goes to Hollywood.
Week 1 of the NFL is notorious for owners making rash decisions way too early. I am here to ask you to give yourself some time to cool down. It is only week one and you have all season to dropkick these non-producers to the curb. Don't be so quick to pull the trigger.
There were definitely some cringe worthy performances this weekend and we are going to look into many of them and tell you whether or not to panic. Do not kid yourself, injury aside, I do not believe you should drop anybody this week that is a starter or bye week fill in. In fact, that brings me to the first six players that I am going to talk about.
The first six I shouldn’t even have to mention:
You Drafted these players with high expectations, they almost certainly cost you a 1st or 2nd round draft pick and you are you thinking about pulling the ripcord already? Really?
In 2012, if you were to look at the top-five ADP players from each position QB, RB, WR and TE you would find that at the end of the year 18 of them finished in the top-10 in standard scoring leagues. That is why you draft them up there because the odds are you are going to get consistent production out of them so why would give up on a good thing after just one week?
T hese six had terrible fantasy weeks in week 1. If you are having second thoughts about any of them, stop right now, back away from the keyboard and take a breath. Here are the big name players who stunk it up in week 1.
Point totals are for standard league. 4pts pass td, 6 pts running/receiving td, 1 pt per 25 yds pass, 1 pt per 10 yds run/receive.
1. Calvin Johnson – 3 points
2. Dez Bryant - 2 points
3. Doug Martin - 10 points
4. Trent Richardson - 7 points
5. Marshawn Lynch - 4 points
6. C.J. Spiller - 3 points
Do not worry about this. The first week is always crazy and these players will produce for you. Move along, there is nothing to see here.10 more to second guess:
Ok, now you have reason to worry. I still stand by my original belief that you should not pull the trigger on these players just yet. However, unlike the last list, this group is on a much shorter leash. Here are other big name players who stunk it up in week 1. Listed are the players, their point total for week one, and some thoughts on their status.
Point totals are for standard league.
7. Eric Decker - 3 points. This situation should be worrying you. There are already not enough balls to go around between Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Peyton Manning's newest buddy Julius Thomas. Decker just may end up the odd man out. Keep an eye on this.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - 4 points. MJD looked like a man working with no QB, o-line, or receivers. Oh wait, he was, and therein lies the problem with MJD this year. He has the potential to put up numbers for you but you need to put him and his terrible offense on the short list for now.
9. Mike Wallace - 1 points. There were many concerns about Wallace before the season started. Many said he hadn't learned the offense and did not gain any chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. I was not one of them but even I have to admit that I now condone having an itchy trigger finger with him at this point. I have him in one of my leagues and am going to keep a very close eye on him in the weeks to come.
10. Chris Johnson - 7 points. The Titans played a great game and pulled out the win. CJ2K's stats did not impress, however. I can tell you that you have nothing to worry about here. The Titans O-line is revamped and playing well so far. The defense looks very strong as well. This all bodes well for the shifty speedster. He may find it slow going next week as he faces another stout defense in Houston but then he will start producing for you as the next hree weeks see much weaker defenses in the Chargers, Jets and Chiefs.
11. Stevan Ridley - 2 points. I want to tell you to get rid of him now. He fumbled twice and was replaced for all intents and purposes by Shane Vereen. Then Vereen got hurt. As much as Belichick would normally ship a guy off for the type of play that we've seen out of Ridley, the Patriots have no one else to turn to. He's going to get the snaps, hold on to him and see where this ride takes you then next few weeks.
12. Dwayne Bowe - 3 points. The Chiefs played well but Alex Smith really distributed the ball evenly and didn't ever seem to look at Bowe in the end zone. This one is disturbing to me. This was supposed to be Bowe's big year. Keep a close watch on this one
13. Lamar Miller - 0 points. Ouch, just ouch. Miller not only had a worse game than his backup Daniel Thomas, he lost the goal line carries to Thomas as well. If this wasn't week one I would be shopping him. As it is, the much easier to run against Colts are coming to town next week, so I say he has earned a stay of execution for one more Sunday.
14. David Wilson - (-3) points. I feel sorry for Wilson owners. What a roller coaster ride. First he seems like a solid pick, then he seems like the sleeper darling of the year after Andre Brown goes down, then he lays this egg in week one. The good news is that Tom Coughlin is expressing his faith in Wilson. The bad news is that Tom Coughlin has to express his faith in Wilson. You have to wonder how long that will last if Wilson does not pull it together. Keep him aboard for now and hope for a big turnaround.
15. Greg Jennings - 3 points. I'm going to chalk this one up to new city/bad game. Jennings is a much better receiver than Jerome Simpson yet it was Simpson that had a great day, seven catches for 140 yards. Jennings and Christian Ponder will start hooking up sooner than later with opposing defenses spending every bit of worry they can muster up trying to figure out how to stop Adrian Peterson. No worries here.
16. Montee Ball - 2 points. The Denver backfield is a grease fire. None of these three, Ball, Ronnie Hillman or Knowshon Moreno seem to want to carry the ball. All three are equally questionable on 3rd down. That is not going to fly with Peyton Manning. At this point hold on to see if anything changes. He may also be worth holding on if you are in a dynasty league but right now it does not look good for any Bronco RB.5 final honorable mentions and 1 defense:
These last five only made honorable mention because they had extenuating circumstances that led to their bad week. The defense didn't make the list because, well, it's a defense but I thought it deserved a mention none-the-less.17. Giovani Bernard – 2 points. If you were one of the ones that drafted him in the last few weeks and had to pay a Round 7 or above pick to get him I am sure you are seriously having second thoughts right now. Take it easy, the best is yet to come, he will be getting the lion’s share soon enough.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis got 10 more attempts than Bernard did and averaged 1.8 yard per carry as opposed to Gio's 5.5 ypc. It will take a while to work him in and work the Law Firm out, but Marvin Lewis will do exactly that by mid season.
18. Roddy White and 19. Chris Ivory – 1 point each. Both these two have been battling injuries through pre-season and into the first game. Relax on White he will be back and great in no time. Ivory still has all the potential in the world but has nagging injury issues. Hang on to both with no reserve but hold your breath for Ivory every time he touches the ball.
20. Cecil Shorts – 4 points. What did you expect? He's on a very bad offensive unit with a terrible QB situation, he is going to be sporadic at best in his scoring this season, sorry to be the one to break it to you. The good news is, despite all of that he still got 11 targets on Sunday. He will convert on more than just three of those in the future so there may be hope after all.
21. Antonio Brown – 7 points. He had the best game of all the honorable mentions, still, his output was lower than you probably expected if you had him in your line up. Steelers always start notoriously slow on offense. They will pick it up and he is the best offensive player, Big Ben excluded, that they have. He will be better, give him some time.
22. 49rs Defense – 4 points. Yes, it was a bad week but they are a great defense and the two biggest points you need to realize are 1) If you have this defense you most likely grabbed them in a single digit or early double digit round; it would be a shame to have wasted that pick on a D to just turn around and waiver wire them and 2) If we really need to talk about a defense then you probably do not have much of a chance in your league anyhow, no offense of course.Remember, cooler heads prevail. Let the other owners panic and just be prepared to be there to pick up the gems that they are going to give away at bargain basement prices.