Player Prop Bets - Week 12
Nov 25, 2012
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Each week I dig through player props and attempt to pick out the most attractive opportunities. After all, betting is all about finding bad odds and exploiting them! The Sand$ represents how much I am wagering and ultimately how confident I am in each bet. The money line is displayed at the end of each bet. Like a point spread, the money line is used to even out the attractiveness of both sides. For example, a negative line of -115 would require a bet of 115 Sand$ in order to win 100 Sand$. A positive line of +130 would return 130 Sand$ when a bet of 100 Sand$ is placed. Occasionally I will put out a parlay bet as well. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay bet is much better odds than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher.
Season prop bets: 20,000 Sand$
Week 11 prop bets: 2,100 Sand$
Last week gain/loss: -488 Sand$
Season gain/loss: +3,749 Sand$
Week 11 Results:
200 Sand$ - Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Touchdown Passes UNDER 2.5 (-115) (+174)
100 Sand$ - Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers) Total Receptions OVER 4.5 (-160) AND Mike Williams (Buccaneers) Total Receptions OVER 3.5 (-130) (-100)
400 Sand$ - Mark Sanchez (Jets) Total Completions UNDER 19.5 (-115) (+348)
400 Sand$ - Danny Amendola (Rams) Total Receiving Yards OVER 65.5 (-115) (-400)
500 Sand$ - Denarius Moore (Raiders) Total Receptions OVER 4.5 (+105) (-500)
200 Sand$ - Matthew Stafford (Lions) Total Touchdown Passes OVER 2 (+105) (-200)
200 Sand$ - The Texans will score 4.5 MORE points than the Panthers (-105) (+190)
Week 12 Player Prop Bets:
200 Sand$ - CJ Spiller (Bills) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 118.5 (-115)
Although Fred Jackson has been cleared to play, Spiller is still designated as the starting running back in Buffalo. Coaches and players from the Bills organization have made it clear that Spiller needs as many touches as possible.
300 Sand$ - Dwayne Allen (Colts) Total Receptions OVER 2.5 (-115) AND Dwayne Allen (Colts) Total Receiving Yards OVER 30.5 (-115)
Allen was targeted 11 times last week and has become one of Andrew Luck’s favorite targets. His opportunity remains the same in week 12 as Coby Fleener is most likely out with a shoulder injury.
300 Sand$ - Chris Johnson (Titans) Total Rushing Yards OVER 99.5 (-115)
I have been wrong while taking the under on Chris Johnson bets all year. In his past two games, he rushed for 141 and 126 yards again two top 5 rush defenses at the time. I am giving up on Chris Johnson bets if he can’t top 100 yards against the 29th ranked Jaguars.
100 Sand$ - R yan Tannehill (Dolphins) Total Touchdown Passes+Interceptions Thrown OVER 2.5 (+160)
With Michael Vick still sidelined, we look to Tannehill to take on “over 2.5 touchdowns and interceptions” bet in week 12.
200 Sand$ - Reggie Bush (Dolphins) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards UNDER 66.5 (-115)
Oh Reggie Bush. The guy who averaged a little over 30 rushing yards in the past four games against four of the worst defenses. I don’t see a breakout game coming against the Seahawks this week.
300 Sand$ - Frank Gore (49ers) Total Rushing Yards OVER 90.5 (-115)
It’s the Saints.
400 Sand$ - Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 59.5 (-115)
I’ve written all season about how Michael Turner stinks and the good news is that he still stinks! The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards this season at 81.8 per game. That is partially due to the fact that they are so easy to throw on, but I don’t see the Falcons gravitating away from their strengths and the passing attack.
200 Sand$ - Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Passing Yards OVER 310.5 (-115)
Just to put some numbers with what I said above. Tampa Bay is allowing 313 passing yards per game, and despite last week's performance, Ryan is better than most of the quarterbacks that the Bucs have faced.
100 Sand$ - Falcon to score -1.5 MORE points than the Saints (-115) AND the Packers to score -0.5 MORE points than the Ravens (-125)
In order for this bet to win, the Falcons need to outscore the Saints by 2 points and the Packers have to score more than the Ravens.
Season Prop Bets:
5,000 Sand$ - New York Jets to win under 8.5 games (-180)
5,000 Sand$ - Jimmy Graham to record +35 receiving yards over Rob Gronkowski
Graham: 562 receiving yards
Gronkowski: 748 receiving yards
5,000 Sand$ - Greg Olsen over 550.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olsen: 539 receiving yards
5,000 Sand$ - BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 850.5 rushing yards (-115)
Green-Ellis: 638 rushing yards