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Player Prop Bets - Week 13

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Each week I dig through player props and attempt to pick out the most attractive opportunities.  After all, betting is all about finding bad odds and exploiting them! The Sand$ represents how much I am wagering and ultimately how confident I am in each bet. The money line is displayed at the end of each bet. Like a point spread, the money line is used to even out the attractiveness of both sides. For example, a negative line of -115 would require a bet of 115 Sand$ in order to win 100 Sand$.  A positive line of +130 would return 130 Sand$ when a bet of 100 Sand$ is placed. Occasionally I will put out a parlay bet as well. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay bet is much better odds than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher.

Season prop bets: 20,000 Sand$
Week 11 prop bets: 2,400 Sand$
Last week gain/loss:
+4,793   Sand$
Season gain/loss:
+8,542 Sand$

Week 12 Results:
200 Sand$ - CJ Spiller (Bills) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 118.5 (-115) (+174)
300 Sand$ - Dwayne Allen (Colts) Total Receptions OVER 2.5 (-115) AND Dwayne Allen (Colts) Total Receiving Yards OVER 30.5 (-115) (+749)
300 Sand$ - Chris Johnson (Titans) Total Rushing Yards OVER 99.5 (-115) (-300)
100 Sand$ - R yan Tannehill (Dolphins) Total Touchdown Passes+Interceptions Thrown OVER 2.5 (+160) (-100)
200 Sand$ - Reggie Bush (Dolphins) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards UNDER 66.5 (-115) (-200)
300 Sand$ - Frank Gore (49ers) Total Rushing Yards OVER 90.5 (-115) (-300)
400 Sand$ - Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 59.5 (-115) (+348)
200 Sand$ - Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Passing Yards OVER 310.5 (-115) (+174)
100 Sand$ - Falcon to score -1.5 MORE points than the Saints (-115) AND the Packers to score -0.5 MORE points than the Ravens (-125) (-100)


Week 13 Player Prop Bets:

200 Sand$ - Ryan Lindley (Cardinals) First Pass Will Be INCOMPLETE (EVEN)

The odds on this bet are great.  Despite finishing with a 60% completion rate in his first NFL start, Lindley looked awful.

400 Sand$ - Mark Sanchez (Jets) Total Completions UNDER 19.5 (-115)

The Cardinals have a top 5 defense and Mark Sanchez is ranked in the bottom 5 when it comes to completion percentage.  I take this bet when the Jets are playing anyone other than the Patriots.

400 Sand$ - Steve Smith (Panthers) Total Receiving Yards OVER 60.5 (-115)

Smith is averaging more than eight targets per game and it looked like Cam Newton found a little bit of a groove last Monday night against the Eagles.

200 Sand$ - Brady Quinn (Chiefs) Will Throw an INTERCEPTION before a TOUCHDOWN (-110)

In Week 8 I made this same bet and noted Quinn’s stats line of 11 career interceptions to his 10 career touchdowns.  After coming through on the bet in week 8 he now has 13 career interceptions to his same 10 career touchdowns.  He actually hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since December 6th, 2009.

200 Sand$ - CJ Spiller (Bills) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 113.5 (-115)

Fred Jackson was back last week and that did nothing to hinder another dominant Spiller performance.  The Bills know that Spiller is their best offensive weapon and they will continue to feed him the ball.

300 Sand$ - Stevan Ridley (Patriots) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 78.5 (-115)

Ridley has been tearing up bad defenses all season.  While the Dolphins rush defense has slipped a little in past few weeks, I think they return to form at home against the Patriots.

200 Sand$ - Reggie Bush (Dolphins) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards UNDER 80.5 (-115)

Bush proved me wrong last week.  If he can do it again this week I will be impressed.

400 Sand$ - Eric Decker (Broncos) Total Receptions Over 4 (-115)
The Buccaneers have the worst pass defense in the NFL.

100 Sand$ - Colts Will Score 2.5 MORE Points Than Titans (-115)

Gut call of the week!

Season Prop Bets:

5,000 Sand$ - New York Jets to win under 8.5 games (-180)
5,000 Sand$ - Jimmy Graham to record +35 receiving yards over Rob Gronkowski
(-135)
Graham: 654 receiving yards
Gronkowski: 748 receiving yards

5,000 Sand$ - Greg Olsen over 550.5 receiving yards (-115) (+4,348)

Olsen: 589 receiving yards

5,000 Sand$ - BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 850.5 rushing yards (-115)

Green-Ellis: 767 rushing yards