Quality Game Scores - Year in Review - TE Jul 31, 2010 | More

Tight ends are normally a pretty inconsistent crowd, but in 2009 there was certainly some depth noted at this position. So, let’s take a look at those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected tight ends in 2009.  

So, let’s start with the Top 21 tight ends ranked by total quality games earned. Why not the Top 20? Well, because Dustin Keller was so close to Ben Watson that I couldn’t leave him off.

THE EXPECTED

That  Antonio Gates tied for first place in total quality games is no surprise. The fact that Gates is tied for third in overall points is more surprising.

I’ll put Dallas Clark up here for one reason: he is certainly a stud tight end. However, to be second in overall points and tied for first in quality games at an 88 percent QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate) is not what anyone expected from Clark this season. I’m going to point to Anthony Gonzalez’s injury and Peyton Manning’s need for a second receiver to step up to take pressure off of Reggie Wayne, especially with Garcon and Collie having to learn the system. Clark did just that and more. I would not be surprised to see Clark’s numbers drop significantly next season when Anthony Gonzalez comes back 100 percent healthy.

I did expect Tony Gonzalez to struggle a tad in Atlanta, but still put up decent numbers. He did that. In fact, if anything, he exceeded my expectations by ending up fifth overall with a QGSR of 69 percent. The QGSR is a little low for Gonzalez. He’s usually a little more consistent then that. However, due to the change in teams, I think he did just fine. I would continue to count on his consistency next season.

I guess I have to admit as much as I hate him personally, Kellen Winslow did meet my expectations this season. I had him ranked sixth overall and he ended up seventh. However, like most non-stud tight ends, he was fairly inconsistent as his QGSR was only 63 percent.

THE UNEXPECTED

No surprise, there’s a pretty big list of tight ends who did not meet expectations, good and bad. Let’s start with a tight end that ended the year being ranked fourth overall and earned 13 quality games for an 81 percent QGSR. Jason Witten? Nope. Owen Daniels? Nope.  Brent Celek made everyone a believer in his abilities, but especially Donovan McNabb. He should be a top pick at tight end again next year. It’s truly a question of how high he’ll go.

Next up is Vernon Davis. He’s been the perennial “great talent, bad fantasy numbers” since he came into the league. However, this year, Coach Mike Singletary turned him into the stud that everyone knew he could be. Davis ended the season as the No. 1 tight end in overall points and had a 75 percent QGSR. He should also be a top pick for next season.

Jermichael Finley came out of nowhere this season and became a top starter each week. He missed three games and still ended the year ranked 13th overall and had a 69 percent QGSR. In a pass-happy offense like the Packers, he will be another solid pick in 2010.

Visanthe Shiancoe completely surprised me in 2009. I had him ranked around 12th-15th. However, Brett Favre found favor with him and the rest is history. He ended the season ranked sixth overall and had a solid 63 percent QGSR. We’ll assume that Favre doesn’t hang around in Minnesota; however, I don’t think that will hurt Shiancoe’s numbers next season. He should be a good middle-round pick.

Two players who played at expected levels and then were lost to the season due to injuries were Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley. I would expect a healthy Daniels to be right back up in the top eight tight ends in 2010. Cooley, however, could have problems since after Fred Davis took over; he had a pretty decent season as well. If these two have to compete for targets, I would stay away from them on draft day.

The last group that I’ll discuss is the “bad” unexpected tight ends. No one ever wants to have these on their team, but many did. These four players are as follows: Witten , Heath Miller, Greg Olsen and John Carlson. They ended the season ranked eighth through 11th in that order. Now Witten has been a stud for years. In fact, his stats look great: 94 receptions for 1,030 yards! That’s sick! A tight end with 94 catches! So, why is he ranked eighth overall and only had a 50 percent QGSR? Touchdowns! Witten only caught two touchdowns all season. If he catches just six more touchdowns, he would have ranked fourth overall and probably would have earned many more quality games. The other three tight ends were solid players from 2008, but for some reason didn’t step up to the next level as many experts, including myself, believed they would. Will these four be great values heading into next year’s draft? Most certainly. Witten will still be recognized as a stud, so I wouldn’t expect to see him drop too much. However, Miller, Olsen and Carlson should be solid values next year.

Well, there’s your quality game (consistency rankings) for the tight ends in 2009. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Witten or Olsen on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

If you have any questions about the quality game scores, you can e-mail me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.