Is Shonn Greene a First-Round Pick? Adam Marsolek, Fantasy Football Guest Writer Jul 11, 2011 | More
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Stats and contracts can be everything

Last year there were high expectations for Shonn Green; however, LaDainian Tomlinson stole the show. That will not be the case in 2011. Tomlinson brought light to a team that failed to have any player rise to the limelight, and I don’t see that happening in 2011. Greene will spell the unfortunate year with extreme energy, realizing that Tomlinson is in a contract year (or end year) and will be putting in 110 percent to sustain another profitable contract. Greene will be put to the test as Tomlinson will be very aggressive, and Greene will aggressively attack holes to improve on his lackluster 10 broken tackles in 2010 (Tomlinson had 10 as well), which was one of the fewest among running backs in 2010.

Putting everything out there to prove that you are the No. 1 running back will spark Greene, as well as using his big body and size to pummel would-be defenders, unlike Tomlinson. Greene had 185 rushing attempts with 766 yards in 2010, and that should increase in 2011 to what I predict will be around 230 rushing attempts and 1,090 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns, as he’ll be getting more goal line attempts. Greene will break more tackles this year as he is playing teams that are in a weaker defensive division (AFC West), from 5 percent break/touch percentage to the better than average of 30 percent, because the AFC West defenses are horrible (other than San Diego).

I have put a lot of faith into Greene this year in a standard fantasy league, but sometimes taking a chance and realizing stats are on the rise for a player can help you win a league with taking a chance.

Greene may have not been flashy last season, but I guarantee he will provide fantasy points as an RB1, and many owners have not realized that yet. Picking him up in the first round may be a reach, so if you think that he’ll stay around to the second then that is a steal. Remember, running backs are successful with great offensive lines (which the New York Jets have), who they are playing (a weak AFC West division), contractual arrangements with other fellow running backs, and expectations of themselves and the coach. I see Greene using the situations to his advantage and striving to excel this 2011 season. Take a chance and draft him as your RB1 early.