Survivor Pool Analysis - Week 4
Sep 28, 2011
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Three weeks down and a heavy road favorite fell to a divisional opponent last weekend. Beware of the road teams. Checkout a full game-by-game analysis for Week 4, as well as selections.
On to the games of Week 4...
Lions @ Cowboys – This should be a game with some points as long as the Cowboy offense is healthy. Stay away in survivor.
Saints @ Jaguars – The Saints should be able to handle Jacksonville on the road, but I will wait until they are in the Superdome to use them.
49ers @ Eagles – It seems as if this will be the theme for this season – how healthy is Michael Vick? Too many concerns around Philadelphia right now and it is not worth touching them until things are straightened out.
Redskins @ Rams – A pick’em in Vegas so you should stay away from this coin flip. I think the Rams will pick up their first win, though.
Titans @ Browns – Tough break for Tennessee losing Kenny Britt for the season, especially considering they cannot get Chris Johnson going. That is not good news for their offense and despite being 2-1, I think the Browns will earn a win at home this week. Stay away in survivor.
Bills @ Bengals – Buffalo is coming off a huge home win against New England and this is another rule I have in survivor. Be cautious with teams coming off big, emotional victories (see my thoughts on the Week 2 Ravens). Buffalo should still be able to escape with a win, but they could be in for a close one. Hold off until they’re back home.
Vikings @ Chiefs – This is an ugly one. Stay away.
Panthers @ Bears – The Bears have started the season with three straight tough opponents (Atlanta, @ New Orleans, and Green Bay). This will be Chicago’s third home game in four weeks. It is a game they have to win and Carolina will be the easiest opponent they will have in the first five weeks of the season. The Panthers are improved, don’t get me wrong, but with a trip looming to Detroit next week, the Bears will need to pick up a win to stay alive in the competitive NFC North.
Steelers @ Texans – Pittsburgh is lucky to be 2-1 after that win they squeaked out in Indianapolis, but a win is a win. This is the most intriguing game of Week 3 because different styles are facing off. The Texans bring that powerful offense while Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense enters Houston. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shootout like the one in New Orleans a week ago. Pittsburgh’s offense did not look good against the Colts and it will be interesting to see how they respond this week.
Falcons @ Seahawks – Another road game for Atlanta and while Seattle is a tough place to play, they need to find a way to pick up a win and return home before a Sunday night game with the Packers. I cannot offer Atlanta as an option on the road, though, especially with a few other viable options.
Giants @ Cardinals – Emotional wins have been the theme early this season. The Giants picked one up on the road in Philadelphia last week and now must travel across the country to take on Arizona. This will be a tough game for Big Blue, but if they want to make that win against the Eagles mean something, they need to carry it over to Arizona.
Dolphins @ Chargers – I gave the Chargers as an option last week and I would likely give them as one again this week, but they did not look so impressive against Kansas City. It was a divisional game and those are never cakewalks, though. However, don’t forget Miami was 6-2 on the road last year and they could turn in a decent game as they sit in the basement of the AFC East at 0-3.
Broncos @ Packers – Green Bay looks like the reigning Super Bowl champions through three weeks and now has a matchup in Lambeau against an AFC opponent in Denver. Therefore, the only question is will the juices still be flowing after a nice win in Chicago. I have to believe Rodgers will continue to keep it rolling.
Patriots @ Raiders – I will repeat what I said last week. Wait for the Pats to come home.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Jets @ Ravens – A Sunday night dog fight. It’s a bigger game for New York with the Patriots looming in Week 5.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Colts @ Bucs – The Bucs were 30 minutes away from falling to 0-2 and looking like they were in for a long season as the offense looked awful. A second half comeback in Minnesota propelled them to 1-1 and after their win against the Falcons last week, they are 2-1 with a Peyton Manning-less Colt team coming in on Monday night. The Colts showed the nation something last week playing tough, but the Bucs will control this game and not make the mistakes that the Steelers did on offense. Side note: Colts in primetime minus Peyton Manning = not exciting.
My top pick for Week 4 would be TAMPA BAY, my first top NFC selection of the season (previous weeks = Houston, Pittsburgh, San Diego). Staying in the NFC, my choices after Tampa would be GREEN BAY and CHICAGO.
Road teams and divisional games are always ones to avoid, but a specific Week 4 favorite to be cautious of are the Bills. I never like to take road favorites in Seattle, but Atlanta desperately needs a win this week.