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In this edition of the Brew Crew Corner we look at the 2008 rookies and how you should go about drafting these players in this year’s Fantasy Draft. Now, I usually don’t focus just on rookies but since the NFL Draft has passed, it’s still fresh on everyone’s mind and I want people to start thinking about how you should tier them. During the season, check out
Rookie QBs
If you’re looking for some immediate Fantasy Football impact at the QB position, you’re not likely to find it in the 2008 rookie class. While
Matt Ryan,
Joe Flacco and maybe even
Chad Henne might see the field, none should be on your roster during your draft unless you’re in a dynasty draft or a deep keeper league. Leave these guys for the waiver wire. Last year I saw
JaMarcus Russell and
Brady Quinn drafted towards the end of some drafts only to provide owners little help. Use that late draft on another RB, WR or back-up TE.
Don’t believe me? Let’s take a closer look at the rookies who have started in the NFL since 2000.
Here are the
Top 10 Rookie QBs since 2000. Rookies are in order of Fantasy Points.
Since 2000 73 rookie QBs attempted at least one pass during the regular season.
Vince Young has had the best rookie season of those 73. He finished the season as the 12th best QB in 2006.
Chris Weinke threw the most yards of any rookie QB with 2931 in 2001.
Ben Roethlisberger threw the most TDs with 17 in 2004, while
Bryan Leftwich threw the most INTs with 16 in 2003.
Notice the only QB to rank in the top 15 among QBs in the league the year their rookie year was
Vince Young. He finished 17th in his sophomore season. The bottom line is rookie QBs over the last 8 seasons have been average at best. If you draft a rookie QB, your expectations should be 1500-2500 yds passing with 10-15 TDs and 10-15 INTs to match. In 2008, 13 QBs were drafted.
Rookie RBs
Rookie RBs are going to be your best option in terms of making an impact for your Fantasy team. It is the one position where a rookie can come in right away and produce. Unlike the QB & WR position that require more time to develop, the rookie RB has had success in their 1st year. We saw this last season where
Adrian Peterson stepped in and made some noise. This has owners eyeing RB’s like
Darren McFadden,
Felix Jones and
Rashard Mendenhall.
Here are the
Top Rookie RBs since 2000. Rookies are in order of Fantasy Points
RB
YR
RSH
RSHYD
RSHTD
RECYD
RECTD
FANT PT
RB Rank
1
2002
273
1508
15
364
2
289
4
2
Mike Anderson
2000
297
1487
15
169
0
256
4
3
Adrian Peterson
2007
238
1341
12
268
1
239
3
4
Maurice Jones-Drew
2006
166
941
13
436
2
228
8
5
LaDainian Tomlinson
2001
339
1236
10
367
0
220
7
6
Willis McGahee
2004
284
1128
13
169
0
208
9
7
Jamal Lewis
2000
309
1364
6
296
0
202
16
8
Joseph Addai
2006
226
1081
7
325
1
189
11
9
Dominic Rhodes
2001
233
1104
9
224
0
187
11
10
Domanick (Davis) Williams
2003
238
1031
8
351
0
186
14
Unlike the rookie QBs, 6 of the top 10 rookies finished in the top ten among RBs their 1st year in the league. Only
Jamal Lewis finished outside of the top 15 among RB for their respective rookie year. The 2008 rookie class is said to be deep at the RB position. Four RBs went in the 1st round and 27 total RBs were drafted with more to be signed as free agents.
File this note for draft day. RBs one and two are from
When looking at these RBs for your draft you must identify which RBs have the best opportunity to start and get the bulk of the carries. While owners may know a RB will come in and produce as a starter, other RBs like
Maurice Jones-Drew,
Mike Anderson and
Domanick (Davis) Williams were a surprise. I’ve been fortunate over the past couple of seasons to grab the hot rookie off the waiver wire and ride them into the playoffs. Players like
Samkon Gado and
Earnest Graham who were not thought about on draft day but produced well after getting an opportunity to play.
Rookie WRs
Most people know that a rookie WR doesn’t produce until his 3rd year in the league. This is known as the YR 3 rule (more on the 3rd year WR after the rookies). This doesn’t mean that a rookie WR can’t come in and produce. We have seen rookie surprises in
Anquan Boldin,
Marques Colston and recently
Dwayne Bowe. Proceed with caution as high expectations for rookie WR sometimes fall short as in
Charles Rogers,
Mike Williams and
Mark Bradley. Drafting these rookies too high is a big risk. Some owners are willing to take that risk, however if your in a redraft league, you might want to wait a few rounds to grab that rookie wide out.
Here are the
Top Rookie WRs since 2000. Rookies are in order of Fantasy Points.
Since 2000 only 3 rookies have passed the 1,000 yard mark and finished in the top 15 among WRs for their respective rookie year.
Anquan Boldin was the only rookie to finish in the top 5. This tells us that the majority of rookie WRs that had a productive year still finished outside the top 20.
According the My Fantasy League ADP, the 20th WR was drafted towards the end of round 5 or 5.08 to be exact. This means you should wait until round 6 or later to grab any rookie WR. Pay close attention to where these rookies are falling and decide if it is worth the risk to draft them. It is noted that the 2008 draft class is weak at WR but there could be some potential prospects if given the opportunity to start.
There were 35 WRs drafted this year. None were drafted in the 1st round. That should tell you something.
Now back to the 3 YR rule for WR’s. Many owners look to find the 3rd year WR because it is the year they finally start to show improvement or breakout.
Below is the list of
3rd Year WRs For 2008 and how they produced in 2007.
As you can see
Marques Colston
,
Brandon Marshall,
Greg Jennings
and
Santonio Holmes have already shown they can produce which will have owners looking for them early in drafts.
Other WRs to consider are
Derek Hagan,
Brad Smith,
Ruvell Martin,
Devin Hester,
Jason Avant and
Sam Hurd. It should be noted that the Dolphins and the Cowboys did not draft any WRs.
Rookie TEs
Lastly, we look at the rookie TE position.
The TE position is a hard position to draft, especially when it comes to TEs because they must learn how to block as well as produce on offense.
Jeremy Shockey’s 2002 season was the best among rookie TEs since 2000. It ranks 36th overall for all TEs from 2000-2007. Recently owners have gotten excited about TEs such as
Antonio Gates, who didn’t produce until year 2 and
Vernon Davis who has been a bust thus far.
My strategy would be to draft a veteran with your 1st TE selection and if you want to grab a rookie TE then take him as your back up or pick him off the waiver wire sometime during the season.
There was only one TE drafted in the 1st round,
Dustin Keller, who joins a Jets team that already has
Chris Baker and signed
Bubba Franks this off season.
Keep an eye on
John Carlson who
There were 16 TEs taken in this year’s draft.
They say it takes at least 3 years to evaluate an NFL draft but for Fantasy owners it’s pretty clear by midseason whether you are up the creek with out a paddle or if you are ready to make a run at the play-offs. In either situation you have to look for trades and waiver pick ups all season long. No matter how well you think your draft went, you can always make your team better.
Thanks for reading!
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