Vinnie's Pick$ and Pa$$es - Week 5 Oct 8, 2004

Let’s Recap from Week 4

The Colts had the cover most of the game, Peyton has too many weapons, even for a solid defense like Jacksonville. Leftwich played better than expected, but still too young to match up with Peyton Manning.

The Bucs hung tough with the Broncos, and were within a play or two of winning that game.  We were on the right side, but it’s still a push.

Ah, the Texans, creamed Oakland.  Texans are a decent football team, Carr is a solid QB, and many handicappers don’t give Houston enough respect.

And, finally, the debacle on Monday night.  What happened to the vaunted Baltimore defense?  I should have realized the Chiefs were loose, desperate, and ready to attack like a wounded dog.  They kept attacking, and played like the 2003 Chiefs, not the 2004 Chiefs.  So, we lost one, we’ll come back big this week with 4 big winners.  Besides, it was just getting to easy…

OK, I want to talk about teasers today.  First, from Sportbetting.com, a definition of a teaser.  With parity in the NFL, and many close games, teasers look like easy money, but be careful.  Don’t go overboard.

Definition (From Sportsbetting.com) Teasers
A teaser is a parlay in which you take more points or lay fewer points than the line, thus adjusting the point spread in your favor. However your payout odds are reduced when you do this. Teaser rules are as follows:

• A teaser can only consist of point spreads and totals; you cannot buy points.
• The number of teams and the number of teaser points you select determines your payout odds.
• A tie or no action and a win on a 2-team teaser shall constitute a no action wager.
• A tie or no action and a loss on a 2-team teaser shall constitute a losing wager.
• A tie on a 3 or more team teaser shall revert to the next lowest betting bracket. For example a tie on a three team teaser becomes a 2-team teaser.

Teaser Payoff Odds for Football

Other Teasers

• 3-team 10-point football teaser odds are 10/12 - ties lose.

Side note: Some one once asked me if I had ever heard the expression, stay away from her, she’s just a tease?  Well, it’s the same thing with teasers.  Sometimes, it looks so easy, but then you crash and burn.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you, but there are some nice teaser opportunities this week.

Once more thing about teasers, games are usually won by 1, 3, 6, 7, 10.  Those are most common numbers.  So, if you can tease a point spread to travel through many of these numbers, it usually a better teaser.  I love seeing a 1 ½ point spread, because that means, it should be a close game, and 1 ½ plus 6 = 7 ½.  I cross over 3 of the key numbers.

Let’s look at a prime teaser opportunity this week

Detroit +7 @ Atlanta: Atlanta is hot, but Detroit is coming off a bye, and Atlanta might be down after the big win over Carolina last week.  Add to that, that you need to win by MORE than a TD to cover, and I normally would stay away.  But, Detroit loses often on the road, and if I TEASE Atlanta from –7 (+6) to –1 it’s a much better option.

Rams +7 @ Seattle: Rams destroyed San Fran (or was that an XFL team playing).  Typical Mike Martz, destroys the easy opponent, and rolls over on the better teams.  Well, Seattle has had an extra week to prepare for this game, and Ray Rhodes will have his defense ready.  Second road game in a row spells disaster for the Rams.  However, the Rams will keep throwing the ball, and could backdoor cover this.  However, by teasing Seattle from –7 (+6) to –1, it’s a much better option.

So, now we have our first teaser

Atlanta –1 / Seattle –1 *** , it looks soooo easy.

Raiders +9 @ Indy: Indy has been on a roll, but look for a letdown here.  Raiders come back strong after a poor showing in Houston, and Indy ‘relaxes’ a bit after their tow big wins against Tenn and Jacksonville.  Look for a backdoor cover here by the Raiders.

Raiders +9 ***

Buffalo +6.5 @ Jets: Drew Bledsoe is asking to be sacked, and the opponents do so.  Jets take this division game strongly, and try to keep pace with the Pats.  Lay the wood with the Jets. Jets –6.5 ***

We’re still above 500, and shooting for more.  Haven’t had to reload at sportbetting.com in a couple weeks.   In fact, I might have to take a vacation and pick up my money down in the Bahamas soon.

Three 3*** plays this week.

Keeping Score…

***** (0-0)

**** (1-0)

*** (6-4)

** (1-1)

Vinnie