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Most fantasy football analysis focuses on total fantasy points scored per season. While this is an important number for year-over-year evaluation, it does not give any insight into a player’s weekly fantasy output.
There are a myriad of details that can affect a players yearly output. Injuries, coaching changes, bad play from other players, injuries to other players and so on. In order to have a better perspective into a player’s historical performance, I focused on the past three seasons. This will help to create a level playing field for the purpose of the players on this list. Some players will have more games to work with and some will not due to injuries or because of years in the league.
With that in mind we start with last year’s stats and look at fantasy points per game. I also list that player’s average fantasy points per game over the past three seasons to show their reliability. I used basic scoring, non-PPR as the scoring system. I list the number of games played with the percentage of total possible starts over the past three seasons to show their dependability
Observations: At the top of the list is Anquan Boldin. He averaged more points per game played last year and helped win a lot of games for fantasy owners. But he also missed four games, or 25 percent, of the season and just as likely cost owners a few losses and maybe a championship. He is reliable because of the points he averages per game over the past three seasons, but he has also missed eight games over the past two seasons. He is an example of a player that is not as dependable as some other players because of the risk for him to miss time and he should be ranked accordingly. Near the bottom of the list is Greg Camarillo who has been injured twice in the past two seasons. He has missed more time than anyone else on the list over the three-year period.
The two different lists show last year’s upward or downward trend versus a three-year average. Looking at this list, the Top 10 players averaged more than 10 points per game. It would be safe to determine that scoring more than 10 points a game is above average. It would also be safe to determine that scoring 0-4 points a game is below average and scoring 5-9 points is average. However, it still does not give much insight into a week-to-week performance. This next list takes a more in-depth look at the numbers. Going over the past three seasons I look at the percentage of times a player has scored above average, average and below average. This will give insight into a player’s weekly scoring consistency and shed light on players who might have inflated numbers due to a couple of blowout performances, yet consistently perform below average.
Observations: At the top of the list is Terrell Owens. He has averaged 10+ points per game more times than anyone else on the list. But when you look at the other categories and compare his averages to Larry Fitzgerald, you can see that Fitzgerald is clearly more consistent at producing better overall numbers over the course of a season. Near the bottom of the list are Mark Clayton and Anthony Gonzalez, who both have similar numbers. However, there are a few differences between the two. First off, Gonzalez only has 29 games played versus Clayton’s 48 games played. Next, Clayton was the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver for the three seasons used in this list. Gonzalez was the Colts’ No. 3 receiver and more like the fourth target on the team. He only has the two seasons including his rookie year to use for the list. With Marvin Harrison gone, Gonzalez moves into the No. 2 spot. His targets and numbers will surely increase and so will his consistency. Clayton, on the other hand, will be very limited to improve upon his numbers. He remains more likely to score below-average numbers than above average. He’ll have inflated numbers, due to a couple of blowout games at the end of the season.
Upon compiling this list the argument could be made that some player’s numbers may be deflated due to some seasons being irrelevant. With that in mind, I back out the seasons in which a player had no fantasy relevancy. For example, a rookie season is irrelevant if a player was buried on a depth chart. Basically, if a player would not have been on a fantasy roster, it is excluded. Then I compared the above-average and average games against below-average games to conclude with an overall mean rating. I also list the percentage of times a player has scored more than 15 points, believing that this would be an elite score and assist in showing a player’s potential upside.
Observations: Near the top of the list is Torry Holt. He has been a very consistent fantasy receiver over the past three seasons. However, he is on the downside of his career and should be seen as having limited upside. Near the bottom of the list is Ted Ginn, Jr. He has not been consistent and has limited upside. He has been more likely to score below average than above average and average combined. He could improve this year, but fantasy owners expecting a breakout might want to reconsider.
Thanks for reading and these lists should help you in your research and rankings to find those consistent or unpredictable players. |
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