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In the first series of this article I broke down the passing distribution for each team. First I broke down team positions and their target percentages that showed what is obvious to most – which teams targeted the WR position the most down to the least. Second, I broke down teams WR 1-4, TE 1 and RB 1. Again that showed what is obvious to most, such as: some teams like
Jacksonville
spread the ball around pretty evenly. The WR 1 received 16% of the team’s passing attempts, as did the WR2. The WR 3 received 13% and WR 4 received 11%, while TE 1 and RB 1 each received 12% of the team’s passing attempts. While that may be a good or better than average % for the RB position, it hurts the WR position. In fact, one could argue based off those numbers that the WR 3 could have been a better value pick over WR 1 and 2 in relation to their average draft position. The flip side of this is that the Jacksonville WR 1 with 16% of the team’s passing attempts was only half of
Denver’s WR 1 with 33% of the team’s passing attempts. Knowing which teams lean towards targeting certain positions more, less or evenly can help in determining value and adjusting accordingly.
Lastly I listed the individual players and their average targets per game. In order for a wide receiver to be successful in terms of fantasy football, one could argue that targets or opportunities are the biggest factor. Over the last three years, the top number of wide receiver targets has been consistent. In 07 there were nine with 150 + targets, in 06 there were nine with 150 + targets and in 05 there were eight with 150 + targets. From 100–150 targets the breakdown was consistent as well. In 07 there were 26, in 06 there were 29 and in 05 there were 28. If we go a little further and look at targets from 80–100 there was a 50% increase last year. Up to 24 compared to 12 in 06 and 14 in 05. Knowing that players will have increases and decreases in targets year in and year out is a reason to look at player production in relation to the targets they receive.
This first list picks up where the average targets per game list left off. It shows how productive an individual was at converting targets into receptions, or what I refer to as their reception conversion percentage. There are many things that can affect this stat: QB play or accuracy, route running, speed, hands, play calling, personnel, which WR position they line up at, etc. The myriad of issues a player will face on any given team can boil down to this one stat. I have also included their average receptions per game as well.
Rcpt
Avg Rcpts
Player
Team
Conv %
Per Gm
W Welker
NE
77%
7
A Boldin
ARI
72%
5.9
J Gaffney
NE
72%
2.8
I Hilliard
TB
71%
4.1
A Gonzalez
IND
71%
3.1
A Johnson
HOU
70%
6.7
B Engram
SEA
70%
5.9
M Colston
NO
68%
6.1
DJ Hackett
SEA
68%
5.3
M Furrey
DET
68%
3.8
R
Wayne
IND
67%
6.5
D Driver
GB
67%
5.5
TJ Houshmandzadeh
CIN
66%
7
A Randle El
WAS
66%
3.4
J Cotchery
NYJ
65%
5.5
J Gage
TEN
65%
3.4
B Wade
MIN
65%
3.4
G
Jennings
GB
63%
4
D Mason
BAL
63%
6.4
R Williams
JAX
63%
2.5
R Moss
NE
62%
6.1
T Holt
STL
62%
5.8
S McDonald
DET
62%
4.9
L Coles
NYJ
62%
5
P Crayton
DAL
62%
3.3
D Stallworth
NE
62%
2.9
J Jurevicius
CLE
62%
3.1
M Jenkins
ATL
62%
3.5
R White
ATL
61%
5.2
S Holmes
PIT
61%
4
R Willams
DET
61%
5.3
D Patten
NO
61%
3.6
K Walter
HOU
61%
4.1
E Wilford
JAX
61%
2.8
L Fitzgerald
ARI
60%
6.7
B Marshall
DEN
60%
6.4
H Ward
PIT
60%
5.5
D Northcutt
JAX
60%
2.9
R Williams
TEN
59%
3.7
J Jones
GB
59%
3.1
J Reed
BUF
59%
3.4
C Johnson
CIN
58%
5.8
S Smith
CAR
58%
5
J
Galloway
TB
58%
4.9
D Branch
SEA
58%
4.5
S Rice
MIN
58%
2.6
J Urban
ARI
58%
2.2
T Owens
DAL
57%
5.4
A Toomer
NYG
57%
3.7
R Curry
OAK
57%
3.4
B Stokley
DEN
56%
3.1
K Curtis
PHI
55%
4.8
B Berrian
CHI
55%
4.4
R Brown
PHI
55%
3.8
C Henry
CIN
55%
2.6
I Bruce
STL
54%
3.9
M Clayton
BAL
54%
5
S Moss
WAS
53%
4.4
N Washington
PIT
53%
1.9
B Edwards
CLE
52%
5
N Burleson
SEA
52%
3.1
A
Davis
HOU
52%
2.4
J
Walker
DEN
52%
3.7
B Johnson
ARI
52%
2.8
R
Ferguson
MIN
52%
2.5
C Chambers
MIA/SD
51%
4.1
C Johnson
DET
51%
3.2
V
Jackson
SD
51%
2.6
P Burress
NYG
50%
4.4
D Bowe
KC
50%
4.4
L Evans
BUF
49%
3.4
M Muhammad
CHI
49%
2.5
L Robinson
ATL
49%
2.5
A
Battle
SF
48%
3.1
M Booker
MIA
48%
3.3
D Carter
CAR
48%
2.3
D Darling
BAL
46%
1.6
D
Jackson
SF
44%
3.1
J Porter
OAK
43%
3.1
D Williams
BAL
43%
2.2
--- page ---
This second list looks at the production of individual wide receivers by average receiving yards per game played last season. When it comes to fantasy value, wide receivers generally tend to be more consistent with their yardage totals than their scoring output. But I have included the percentage of games where the individual player went over 100 yards, the percentage of games played with a touchdown reception and how many multi-touchdown games they had on the season.
Avg Yds
100 +
TD Rcpt%
Multiple
Players
Team
Per Gm
Yd Gm
Gm Plyd
TD Gms
A Johnson
HOU
94.5
44%
78%
1
R
Wayne
IND
94.3
38%
56%
1
L Fitzgerald
ARI
94.1
27%
47%
3
R Moss
NE
93.3
56%
81%
8
T Owens
DAL
90.3
40%
67%
3
C Johnson
CIN
90
31%
25%
3
B Marshall
DEN
82.8
25%
38%
1
B Edwards
CLE
80.5
25%
69%
4
J Cotchery
NYJ
75.2
27%
13%
M Colston
NO
75.1
25%
44%
3
R White
ATL
75.1
31%
38%
T Holt
STL
74.3
19%
44%
W Welker
NE
73.4
25%
38%
2
S Holmes
PIT
72.4
23%
46%
2
B Engram
SEA
71.6
13%
38%
TJ Houshmandzadeh
CIN
71.4
19%
63%
2
A Boldin
ARI
71
17%
50%
3
G
Jennings
GB
70.7
15%
77%
2
D Driver
GB
69.8
13%
13%
R Williams
DET
69.6
17%
33%
1
K Curtis
PHI
69.3
19%
19%
1
D Mason
BAL
67.9
31%
J
Galloway
TB
67.6
20%
33%
1
S Smith
CAR
66.8
27%
33%
1
P Burress
NYG
64
19%
56%
2
DJ Hackett
SEA
64
33%
50%
D Bowe
KC
62.1
13%
31%
C Chambers
MIA/SD
60.6
13%
25%
D Branch
SEA
60
18%
36%
B Berrian
CHI
59.2
6%
31%
S McDonald
DET
58.9
38%
L Coles
NYJ
58.7
9%
36%
2
S Moss
WAS
57.7
14%
21%
H Ward
PIT
56.6
38%
2
L Evans
BUF
53
13%
25%
1
D Patten
NO
52.8
20%
20%
I Bruce
STL
52.3
7%
29%
C Johnson
DET
50.4
7%
27%
K Walter
HOU
50
6%
25%
B Stokley
DEN
48.8
46%
R Brown
PHI
48.7
6%
19%
A Randle El
WAS
48.5
13%
7%
I Hilliard
TB
48.1
7%
7%
A Gonzalez
IND
48
8%
17%
R Williams
TEN
47.9
7%
20%
1
A Toomer
NYG
47.5
19%
J Gage
TEN
46.8
6%
6%
P Crayton
DAL
46.4
7%
33%
2
J Jones
GB
45
7%
13%
R Curry
OAK
44.8
6%
31%
J Porter
OAK
44
31%
1
D Stallworth
NE
43.5
6%
19%
N Burleson
SEA
43.3
6%
50%
1
C Henry
CIN
42.8
25%
R Williams
JAX
41.9
7%
67%
A
Davis
HOU
41.6
7%
21%
M Furrey
DET
41.5
6%
J
Walker
DEN
41
29%
B Wade
MIN
40.8
13%
1
D Northcutt
JAX
40
33%
V
Jackson
SD
38.9
19%
J Reed
BUF
38.5
J Jurevicius
CLE
38.3
13%
1
A
Battle
SF
37.5
31%
M Booker
MIA
37
7%
M Muhammad
CHI
35.6
19%
M Jenkins
ATL
35.4
20%
1
J Gaffney
NE
34.5
8%
38%
D
Jackson
SF
33.1
13%
M Clayton
BAL
33.1
6%
S Rice
MIN
33
33%
J Urban
ARI
32.9
10%
20%
B Johnson
ARI
32.8
13%
E Wilford
JAX
32.3
13%
1
D Williams
BAL
32.2
D Carter
CAR
30.5
6%
19%
1
N Washington
PIT
30
20%
2
R
Ferguson
MIN
30
8%
D Darling
BAL
29.6
9%
27%
L Robinson
ATL
29.1
7%
7%
--- page ---
This third list takes a look at an individual’s production per reception in relation to a basic scoring system. It breaks down all these lists into one formidable chart to show which players were the most productive at producing fantasy points per reception. One could make an argument that it might be better served to break this down by targets rather than receptions. The reason I chose to break this down by receptions is that if a player had a lot of targets but a poor reception conversion percentage, they would be listed higher due to the number of targets rather than their actual production and the first list with the reception conversion percentage shows how effective a player was at taking advantage of their opportunities to begin with.
Fantasy
Player
Team
Pts Pr Rcpt
R Williams
JAX
3.21
G
Jennings
GB
3.09
R Moss
NE
2.93
B Edwards
CLE
2.8
D Darling
BAL
2.78
T Owens
DAL
2.78
S Holmes
PIT
2.73
N Washington
PIT
2.59
P Burress
NYG
2.49
N Burleson
SEA
2.46
J Porter
OAK
2.41
J
Galloway
TB
2.4
B Stokley
DEN
2.33
A
Davis
HOU
2.3
M Jones
JAX
2.3
P Crayton
DAL
2.22
A Johnson
HOU
2.22
C Henry
CIN
2.19
L Evans
BUF
2.07
J Gaffney
NE
2.06
C Johnson
CIN
2.06
C Johnson
DET
2.06
A Gonzalez
IND
2.03
S Rice
MIN
2.03
R
Wayne
IND
2.03
J Urban
ARI
2
L Fitzgerald
ARI
1.99
A Boldin
ARI
1.96
V
Jackson
SD
1.95
D Carter
CAR
1.92
K Curtis
PHI
1.91
D Northcutt
JAX
1.91
M Colston
NO
1.9
M Muhammad
CHI
1.88
D Stallworth
NE
1.89
R White
ATL
1.88
D Bowe
KC
1.84
D Branch
SEA
1.84
C Chambers
1.83
L Coles
NYJ
1.82
A
Battle
SF
1.8
D Patten
NO
1.8
R Williams
DET
1.79
B Berrian
CHI
1.77
I Bruce
STL
1.76
DJ Hackett
SEA
1.75
R Curry
OAK
1.73
R Williams
TEN
1.73
T Holt
STL
1.72
B Marshall
DEN
1.71
J Jones
GB
1.68
D Bennett
STL
1.67
R Brown
PHI
1.67
TJ Houshmandzadeh
CIN
1.66
S McDonald
DET
1.65
S Smith
CAR
1.63
S Moss
WAS
1.61
B Engram
SEA
1.6
K Walter
HOU
1.6
H Ward
PIT
1.6
J Gage
TEN
1.58
J Jurevicius
CLE
1.58
T Ginn Jr
MIA
1.59
A Toomer
NYG
1.59
B Wade
MIN
1.54
A Randle El
WAS
1.53
E Wilford
JAX
1.53
J Cotchery
NYJ
1.51
W Welker
NE
1.47
D
Jackson
SF
1.46
M Jenkins
ATL
1.45
D Williams
BAL
1.45
B Johnson
ARI
1.42
D Driver
GB
1.41
R
Ferguson
MIN
1.41
B Smith
NYJ
1.38
D Mason
BAL
1.34
L Robinson
ATL
1.32
I Hilliard
TB
1.26
M Booker
MIA
1.22
M Furrey
DET
1.18
J Reed
BUF
1.12
M Clayton
BAL
1.1
--- page ---
So looking at this list, the first thing you see is Reggie Williams
listed in the first slot. He may have produced the most fantasy points per reception but his opportunities were limited and everyone knows that Randy Moss
was the top scoring wide receiver last year. While this list shows who was the most productive per reception, the biggest factor becomes targets as well as reception conversion percentage. By taking the three most important factors – the fantasy points per reception list, the average targets per game list and reception conversion list – and giving each of them a weight value, we can come up with one list that puts the three most important factors into one measurement. Remember that this list is based off last year and is not a projection for this year. It is more of a tool for quick estimates when making determinations based on the potential increase or decrease a player may receive in targets this year and comparing a player’s potential value compared to their average draft position.
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