Walter Collazo
Week 10: The Hot Streak

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Welcome to Week 10. The bye weeks are almost done so most of us shouldn’t be as stressed over lineups as we have been the past couple of weeks. We still have injuries to deal with such as the injury to Aaron Rodgers on Monday night. New England and Kansas City are on a bye this week as well as Cleveland and the New York Jets. Tough week not to have Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski.

Now that we are later in the fantasy season, you have to play the hot hand - the guys that are going to win the league for you. Every win is critical now to make the playoffs so play the guys that are going to get you the points you need every game.

Let’s look at key positions and see who has been hot over the past four weeks.

QUARTERBACKS

Quarterback Fantasy Points Per Game
1
Matthew Stafford 27
2
Nick Foles 25.7
3
Cam Newton 25
4
Andy Dalton 24.5
5
Peyton Manning 24.3
6
Drew Brees 23.7
7
Colin Kaepernick 23.3
8
Jason Campbell 22.5
9
Case Keenum 22.5
10
Andrew Luck 20.7
11
Russell Wilson 20
12
Terrelle Pryor 19.7

RUNNING BACKS

Running Backs Fantasy Points Per Game
1
Matt Forte 28
2
Knowshon Moreno 26.7
3
Reggie Bush 24
4
Jamaal Charles 23.5
5
Zac Stacy 23.2
6
Eddie Lacy 23
7
Chris Johnson 22.3
8
Frank Gore 22
9
Stevan Ridley 22
10
Marshawn Lynch 19.8
11
Peyton Hillis 18
12
Adrian Peterson 17.8

WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Per Game
1
Calvin Johnson 31
2
Andre Johnson 25.3
3
Marvin Jones 22
4
Brandon Marshall 21.7
5
A.J. Green 21.5
6
Harry Douglas 20.7
7
Vincent Jackson 20.5
8
Keenan Allen 20
9
Jordy Nelson 19.2
10
Riley Cooper 19
11
Wes Welker 18
12
DeSean Jackson 17.2

TIGHT ENDS

Tight End Fantasy Points Per Game
1
Vernon Davis 20.7
2
Rob Gronkowski 17.3
3
Jimmy Graham 16.7
4 Jorden Reed 15.5
5
Kyle Rudolph 12.2
6
Tim Wright 12.2
7
Julius Thomas 10.7
8
Jordan Cameron 10.5
9
Tony Gonzalez 10
10
Jason Witten 10
11
Dallas Clark 9.7
12
Coby Fleener 9.7

The Golden Mug Award
Awarded to the fantasy players who came through for their team.

Andre Johnson - 9 receptions, 229 yards, 3 TD. It is Johnson’s first trips to the end zone this season. The last time he had more than 200 yards was Week 11 of last season when he had 273 yards against Jacksonville. Johnson hasn’t had a game where he caught more than one touchdown since 2010 season. With the Houston running game having issues and the team giving up 27.6 points per game, Johnson will be counted on to carry the offense.

Nick Foles - 22/28, 406 yards, 7 TD. Before this season we hadn’t seen a seven-touchdown game since 1969. We already have had two this season. Foles lit up the Oakland defense all day and should remain the starter for the rest of the season. He doesn’t face a defense ranked better than 20th for the remainder of the year.

Zac Stacy - 27 carries, 127 yards, 2 TD, 6 receptions, 51 yards. Stacy fought through an ankle injury to have the best week of all the running backs. Stacy has 261 rushing yards in the past two weeks and will do well this week if he is healthy.

The Urinal Cake Award
Awarded to the fantasy players who you would like to, well, you know.

Vincent Jackson - 2 receptions, 11 yards. Jackson had a tough matchup but Mike Glennon still had two touchdowns which didn’t go Jackson’s way. Since the team changed quarterbacks Jackson has had two breakout games to go along with two stinkers with one decent outing. He’s got three good matchups coming up before he faces Carolina again.

Ryan Mathews - 7 carries, 34 yards. After back-to-back games with more than 100 yards, Mathews lays a dud against a dream matchup. Every time you think you can trust Mathews as a viable fantasy starter, he either gets hurt or drops a poor performance.

Ray Rice - 11 carries, 17 yards, 3 catches, 21 yards. Rice has not rushed for 75 yards or more in any game this season. He’s averaging an awful 36.6 rushing yards per game with only three touchdowns. Baltimore’s line just isn’t opening holes and Rice isn’t making big plays.

MATCHUPS

Good quarterback matchups this week

Nick Foles at Green Bay. If you were able to snag Foles off the waiver wire, he paid off for you tremendously. Foles most likely won’t throw seven touchdowns this weeks but he still has a good matchup against the Packers, who gave up 271 yards and two touchdowns to
Josh McCown . The Packers are 20th in the league averaging 250.3 passing yards allowed per game with 14 touchdowns allowed and only three interceptions all season. With Aaron Rodgers out, Foles has a chance to see more plays.

Jay Cutler against Detroit. Cutler returns early from a groan injury. Be very cautious about starting him because he can easily re-injure himself. However, if he can play the whole game he has a matchup against a Lions team that is allowing 272.5 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns allowed this season. Before he went down with aninjury, Cutler had three straight games with 21 fantasy points or more.

Sleeper Pick of the Week: Case Keenum at Arizona. Keenum has played well in his two starts this season and last week he went to
Andre Johnson early and often. Maybe this is the quarterback that Johnson needs. Keenum has been smart with the football, not throwing an interceptions so far. Arizona’s defense has slipped and is ranked 24th allowing 254.2 passing yards per game with 14 touchdowns allowed this season. Even though the Cardinals are coming off a game where they intercepted Matt Ryan four times, they still have given up six touchdowns over the past three games.

Good running back matchups this week

C.J. Spiller at Pittsburgh. Could Spiller be back and healthy? Let’s hope so. After missing Week 8, Spiller rushed for 116 yards on just 12 carries. That’s 9.6 yards per carry. If he can get 15 or so touches this week, he will do well. The Steelers are coming off a game where they allowed Stevan Ridley to rush for 115 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 8 they let
Darren McFadden score twice as well. The Steelers defense is allowing 121.3 rushing yards per game (27th) and have given up five of their nine rushing touchdowns this season in the past two games.

Reggie Bush at Chicago. The last time Bush ran for more than 100 yards was against the Bears back in Week 4 when he had 139 yards and a touchdown. He should be healthy coming off a bye for this second round against a division rival. The Bears, the past three games, have been killed by running backs. In Week 6 we saw
Brandon Jacobs off his couch come in and run for 106 and two scores. In Week 7 Roy Helu scored three times while Alfred Morris ran for 95 yards. Last week Eddie Lacy put up 150 yards and a score. The flood gates are open against the Bears and Bush is going to run through those holes all game.

Sleeper Pick of the Week: Donald Brown against St. Louis. Brown makes for a sneaky play this week as
Trent Richardson has looked like Mark Ingram all season and is dealing with an injury that might limit him. The Rams will play the Colts tough on pass defense, which will force the Colts to run the ball some. The Rams have allowed some big games this season to running backs. In Week 3 DeMarco Murray rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown. In Week 4 Frank Gore ran for 153 yards and a touchdown. In Week 6 Arian Foster ’s last productive game went for 141 yards on the ground. Then last week, Chris Johnson rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns. If Brown can get 80 yards and a touchdown this week against this defense, it should be a great game.

Bad quarterback matchups this week

Colin Kaepernick against Carolina. In the last four games the Panthers have held quarterbacks to an average of 15.2 fantasy points. They have given up four touchdowns to six interceptions during that span. Kaepernick has played well, mainly due to his rushing, in his past two games but hasn’t passed for more than 200 yards in six of his eight starts. He’s thrown only nine touchdowns this season. To put it into Perspective, Mike Glennon , Jake Locker and Matt Schaub have eight touchdowns and have played in less games. The Panthers are second in the league in rushing defense with only two touchdowns given up all season which means Kaepernick could get shut out from running in a score this week.

Matt Ryan against Seattle. Ryan has been ice cold the past two games averaging 12.5 fantasy points while throwing seven interceptions. Seattle last week, almost let Tampa Bay beat them but the Seahawks still played good pass defense and are second in the league with 179.8 passing yards per game allowed on average. They have allowed just nine touchdowns and are tied with the Broncos with 13 interceptions. I’m sitting Ryan if possible this week.

Andrew Luck against St. Louis. Luck has played well the past two games and getting
T.Y. Hilton back on track is key but Hilton is inconsistent. The Colts lack of run game, along with limited weapons, behind Hilton will hurt them this week. The Rams are a defense that can play well at times. They are ninth in the NFL allowing 220.6 passing yards per game on average with 14 touchdowns allowed this season.

Bad running back matchups this week

Ray Rice against Cincinnati. This is Rice’s first meeting against the Bengals this season. In the past three weeks he is averaging just 10 fantasy points per game without a touchdown. The Ravens’ rushing offense is horrible right now and this week they will struggle against the Bengals. The Bengals defense is allowing 97.2 rushing yards per game on average (eighth) and have given up just three rushing touchdowns all year.

Ryan Mathews against Denver. Last week, I thought Mathews was going to put up good numbers against Washington, but he stunk it up. This week he plays the first of two meetings against Denver this season. Denver has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season allowing just 81.5 rushing yards (third) per game with eight touchdowns allowed. I expect the Broncos to put up a lot of points which will force the Chargers to play catch-up. In that scenario, Mathews becomes useless and we see
Danny Woodhead on more plays.

Rashad Jennings at the New York Giants. Jennings filled in nicely last week when
Darren McFadden left the game with a hamstring injury. Jennings will take most of the carries this week whether McFadden plays or not. He will have a tough game this week against the Giants, who are getting healthier on defense and have stopped some of the best running backs this season from having big games. Just to name a few - Jamaal Charles , LeSean McCoy twice, Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson have all struggled against the Giants with average of 50 rushing yards and just one rushing touchdown among them.

FanDuel

In Week 9, I averaged 135 points in all of my 50/50 games and head-to-head. I didn’t place in any of the tournaments as I did not play
Nick Foles in any of my lineups. I came up short with both the New Orleans and Seattle defenses, which I played in just about every matchup. Josh Gordon , Jordy Nelson and Terrance Williams also came up short for me. I did well in the games I played the Kansas City defense, Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen .

The best lineup in Week 9 scored the highest total this season, putting up 291.42 fantasy points. That lineup almost was just $600 over qualifying for the $55K expert leagues. This week the same lineup will cost you about $7,100 more as
Nick Foles , Zac Stacy , Chris Johnson and Riley Cooper ’s values all go up more than $1,000. Surprising Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton ’s prices stay the same.

Player

Week 9 Price

Week 10 Price

Difference

Week 9 PTs

Nick Foles

$6,800

$8,200

($1,400)

45.64

Zac Stacy

$5,800

$7,500

($1,700)

32.8

Chris Johnson

$7,000

$8,000

($1,000)

30.5

Riley Cooper

$4,500

$6,000

($1,500)

36.2

Andre Johnson

$6,900

$6,900

even

45.4

T.Y. Hilton

$6,000

$6,000

even

33.6

Jimmy Graham

$8,100

$8,700

($600)

28.1

Nick Folk

$5,500

#N/A

Bye Week

16

Dolphins

$5,000

$5,900

($900)

23


$55,600

$61,700

($7,100)

291.24

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Week 10: You should play your optimal lineups now. You need to maximize every point you can get. Especially if you have a bad record and need every win the rest of the way.

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Cheers!