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Player Prop Bets - Week 3

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Week 2 was a little disappointing, and the blame is all on me. Three of my four favorite bets were off the mark. The only thing more disappointing than being off was Peyton Manning‘s prime time performance. Mr. Reliable is not the sure thing he once was. Luckily my Antonio Brown parlay saved the week.

Season prop bets: 20,000 Sand$
Week 2 prop bets: 1,500 Sand$
Last week gain/loss: +106 Sand$
Season gain/loss: +106 Sand$

Week 2 Results:

300 Sand$ - Antonio Brown (Steelers) Total Receptions over 4 (Even) and Antonio Brown (Steelers) Total Receiving Yards over 60.5 (-115) - (+822)

100 Sand$ - Percy Harvin (Vikings) Total Receptions over 5.5 (+110) - (+110)

100 Sand$ - Michael Vick (Eagles) Total Touchdown Passes+Interceptions Thrown over 2.5 (-115) - (+87)

300 Sand$ - Darren McFadden (Raiders) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards over 115.5 (-115) - (-300)

100 Sand$ - Steven Jackson (Rams) Total Rushing Yards under 78.5 (-115) - (+87)

300 Sand$ - Jared Cook (Titans) Total Receptions over 3.5 (-120) - (-300)

400 Sand$ - Denver Broncos total points over 24 (-115) - (-400)

Week 2 Net: +106 Sand$

Week 3 Player Prop Bets:

300 Sand$ - Alex Smith (49ers) Total Completions under 19.5 (-115)

Smith has completed 20 passes in each of his first two games this season - a feat he only accomplished four times in 2011. Smith is also boasting an unsustainable 70.2 completion percentage.

200 Sand$ - Chris Johnson (Titans) Total Rushing Yards on FIRST ATTEMPT under 3.5 yards (-125)

This seems like a sucker bet, and I hate banking on the success or failure in just one play. So far, Johnson has only 21 yards on 19 attempts, with 33 percent of the yards coming from one play. I understand the sample size is small, but Chris Johnson is clearly having issues. Oh yeah, the Detroit Lions’ defensive line is pretty good as well.

100 Sand$ - CJ Spiller (Bills) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards over 125.5 (-115)

I am going to run with this bet until Spiller slows down, or better yet, gets shutdown and stops breaking monster plays. I hope this doesn’t turn out like my Darren McFadden bet from Week 2.

200 Sand$ - Reggie Wayne (Colts) Total Receiving Yards under 80.5 (-115)

A pure gut call here. The Jacksonville Jaguars always field a formidable pass defense as well.

200 Sand$ - Michael Vick (Eagles) WILL NOT Score a Rushing Touchdown (-160) AND LeSean McCoy (Eagles) WILL Score a Touchdown (-140)

I initially liked Michael Vick not scoring a rushing touchdown as the only bet. But let’s be honest, parlays are more fun! I was extremely close to taking the over 2.5 interceptions/touchdowns like last week also. I actually think I like that bet every week ... starting next week.

100 Sand$ - Andre Johnson (Texans) Total Receiving Yards under 80.5 (-115) AND Andre Johnson (Texans) WILL NOT Score a Touchdown (-135)

The Houston Texans are a running offense, and I like the Denver Broncos defense more than most people.

300 Sand$ - Stevan Ridley (Patriots) Total Rushing Yards under 75.5 (-115)

Just another gut call. I almost parlayed this with Stevan Ridley not scoring a touchdown but too many parlays never work out in your favor.

100 Sand$ - Jordy Nelson (Packers) Total Receptions over 5 (-130) AND Jordy Nelson (Packers) WILL Score a Touchdown (+105)

Nelson should be the top target on Monday night with Greg Jennings listed as questionable (and most likely out) for Monday night. I also liked parlaying the Packers not scoring a rushing touchdown and Aaron Rodgers having more than 2.5 passing touchdowns, but the Seattle defense makes me wary.

Season Prop Bets:

5,000 Sand$ - New York Jets to win under 8.5 games (-180)

Back on track ...

5,000 Sand$ - Jimmy Graham to record +35 receiving yards over Rob Gronkowski (-135)
Graham: 156 receiving yards
Gronkowski: 135 receiving yards

This bet could take a huge turn for the worse. I hope Aaron Hernandez only misses the estimated few weeks.

5,000 Sand$ - Greg Olsen over 550.5 receiving yards (-115)

Greg Olsen is back on track after an abysmal Week 2 performance. Olsen has 167 receiving yards and is way ahead of pace.

5,000 Sand$ - BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 850.5 rushing yards (-115)

Green-Ellis put up another decent performance to bring his rushing total to 166 yards.