Week Eleven: Playoff Picture Nov 12, 2008 | More

Week 11 is here and the Brew Crew Corner is still going strong. Hopefully you’re in the thick of your playoff battles and have a chance to fight for the championship. I lost a heartbreaker this week losing one game by a few points which would have given me the best start in my fantasy history with a 9-1 start for one of my money leagues. I was let down by Chris Johnson and Bernard Berrian with Frank Gore almost providing a game-saving TD. Sometimes you find yourself on the wrong end of luck.

One thing I want to stress is holding on to your reserve players that have helped you get through to this point in the season. No matter if your starters have returned from injury such as Joseph Addai or Tony Romo or you have a new set of starters such as Tim Hightower or Brady Quinn. You must keep players that can still be productive. The last thing you want to do is drop a player only to have your starter injured or help other owners in your league fill some holes. For instance, in one of my leagues this owner dropped Wes Welker and Mewelde Moore and now faces the other them that picked these players up. If he loses the game, he has only himself to blame for letting productive players become available.

Now if you haven’t done so, shed the excess players that are unproductive in your line up or are no longer useful now that the bye weeks are complete like your back up Ks, TEs and DEFs. Only hold on to your second defense if you’re playing match-ups from week to week. Another strategy is to pick up players in the areas that you are weak. As for an example, if you are weak at QB it might help to carry three signal callers that have favorable matchups heading into the playoffs. Matt Cassel, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco may seem like fantasy reserves but they have been top ten fantasy QBs over the last three weeks. If your QB is always facing the defenses that are bottom of the league in passing, then you have a better chance at scoring points. You can also ride the hot hand of the QBs you have.

Here are the Top 10 fantasy players over the past three weeks.

Top Ten QBs
Based on Shark League scoring

                                            RANK
1 Kurt Warner, ARI                9th last week
2 Tyler Thigpen, KCC             1st last week
3 Donovan McNabb, PHI          New
4 Peyton Manning, IND           4th last week
5 Joe Flacco, BAL                    2nd last week
6 David Garrard, JAC             New
7 Matt Ryan, ATL                   New
8 Jay Cutler, DEN                  New
9 Drew Brees, NOS                 New
10 Matt Cassel, NEP              7th last week

Removed from list: Dan Orlovsky, DET; Jeff Garcia, TBB; Chad Pennington, MIA; Matt Schaub, HOU; Marc Bulger, STL

Top Ten RBs
Based on Shark League scoring
 
                                              RANK
1 Thomas Jones, NYJ               7th last week
2 Brian Westbrook, PHI            4th last week
3 Adrian Peterson, MIN            10th last week
4 Mewelde Moore, PIT              2nd last week
5 Chris Johnson, TEN               1st last week
6 Brandon Jacobs, NYG             New
7 Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC       New
8 Kevin Smith, DET                  New
9 Ladainian Tomlinson, SDC      New
10 Michael Turner, ATL             New

Removed from list: Clinton Portis, WAS; LenDale White, TEN; Steve Slaton, HOU; Marshawn Lynch, BUF; Dominic Rhodes, IND

Top Ten WRs
Based on Shark League scoring

                                       RANK
1 Anquan Boldin, ARI         7th last week
2 Roddy White, ATL            New
3 Andre Johnson, HOU      1st last week
4 Mark Bradley, KCC         New
5 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI      New
6 Kevin Walter, HOU         New
7 Calvin Johnson, DET        2nd last week
8 Matt Jones, JAC              New
9 Eddie Royal, DEN            New
10 Ted Ginn Jr., MIA          New

Removed from list: Antonio Bryant, TBB; Randy Moss, NEP; Steve Smith, CAR; Donnie Avery, STL; Derrick Mason, BAL; Santana Moss, WAS; Lee Evans, BUF

Top Ten TEs
Based on Shark League scoring
  
                                         RANK
1 Tony Gonzalez, KCC         3rd last week
2 Dallas Clark, IND             1st last week
3 Kellen Winslow, CLE         New
4 Kevin Boss, NYG              7th last week
5 Antonio Gates, SDC         5th last week
6 Bo Scaife, TEN                 New
7 Dustin Keller, NYJ            New
8 Owen Daniels, HOU           2nd last week
9 Chris Cooley, WAS            4th last week
10 Billy Miller, NOS            10th last week

Removed from list: Martellus Bennett, DAL; Robert Royal, BUF; Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
 
Top Ten Ks
Based on Shark League scoring

                                               RANK
1 Jay Feely, NYJ                       7th last week
2 Phil Dawson, CLE                    10th last week
3 Dan Carpenter, MIA                2nd last week
4 David Akers, PHI                    New
5 Rob Bironas, TEN                    1st last week
6 Stephen Gostkowski, NEP        3rd last week
7 John Carney, NYG                  9th last week
8 Matt Stover, BAL                    4th last week
9 Neil Rackers, ARI                  New
10 Shaun Suisham, WAS          8th last week

Removed from list: Rian Lindell, BUF; Matt Bryant, TBB

Top Ten DEFs
Based on Shark League scoring

                               RANK  
1 Jets NYJ                7th last week
2 Giants NYG           1st last week
3 Ravens BAL            2nd last week
4 Falcons ATL           New
5 Dolphins MIA         5th last week
6 Texans HOU          4th last week
7 Jaguars JAC           New
8 Cardinals ARI         New
9 Seahawks SEA       New
10 Steelers PIT         3rd last week

Removed from list: Bears, Chicago CHI; Cowboys, Dallas DAL; Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB; Patriots, New England NEP

The Golden Mug Award
Awarded to the fantasy player who came through for their team.
Thomas Jones – 26 car. for 149 RuYDs, 3 RuTDs. Jones has quietly been a good fantasy RB as he is the sixth-best RB in Shark Leagues. He has seven RuTDs and one ReTD over the past five games. He’s averaging 25 FTPs over those games. Jones’ next two opponents are tough as he faces New England, which he faced in Week 2 and rushed for 70 yards, and then he plays against the Titans. If you can swing a trade for Jones in your league his last five games are against the Broncos, 49ers, Bills, Seahawks and Dolphins.

Adrian Peterson – 30 car. for 192 RuYDs, 1 RuTD and 3 rec. for 33 ReYDs. Peterson is showing the league why owners selected him in the Top 3 of fantasy drafts. Over the past four games he is averaging 140.8 RuYDs with four TDs. The schedule gets tough for him down the stretch as he faces the Buccaneers, Bears, Cardinals and Giants, all ranked 11 or better against the run. If Gus Frerotte continues to turn the ball over, they Vikings will put the offense more on Peterson to carry.

Maurice Jones-Drew – 11 car. for 70 RuYDs, 3 RuTDs. If only MJD would get 20-plus carries a game, he would put up incredible numbers. The yards haven’t been there for his owners but Jones-Drew has seven RuTDs over the past five games with one game over the 100-yard mark in which he got 22 carries. The next two games are against the Titans and Vikings which will be tough for Jones-Drew to put up good numbers. He has good matchups against the Colts, Packers and Texans but bad matchups against the Titans, Vikings, Ravens and Bears. All four are ranked in the Top 10 against the run. Sell high while you can.

The Urinal Cake Award
Awarded to the fantasy player who you would like to, well you know.
Bernard Berrian- 0 rec., 0 ReYDs. After scoring four weeks in a row, Berrian was held without a catch and was only targeted twice. It would have been easier if owners would have had him listed as inactive. Looks like Al Harris is healthy again as he shut Berrian down. Berrian’s next three games are against Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Chicago.

Chris Johnson TEN – 14 car. for 8 RuYDs. Johnson is a future stud in this league and the Bears had the personnel to stack eight and nine in the box to keep the Titans from running it at all. It hurts to see eight yards from one of your best RBs. As a rookie, he has been great. You may have gotten him in drafts as your third or fourth RB depending on the league. It is understandable that there will be games in which he will struggle. Next three games are against the Jaguars, Jets and Lions.

Steve Smith CAR – 1 rec, for 9 ReYDs. Jet lag? Bye week rust? Or was it the lock down Nnamdi Asomugha had on Smith? Any one can be used to explain Smith’s non-factor in your lineup. Smith was targeted six times. Jake Delhomme didn’t help the situation having an awful day against a team they should have beat with their eyes closed. Smith gets a chance to redeem himself this week with a game against the Lions at home.

MATCHUPS

Another Thursday matchup with key fantasy players as the Jets go into Foxboro to play the Patriots. This should be a good matchup as both teams are 6-3 with the Patriots winning the first meeting 19-10 in Week 2. The game should be close as the Jets are coming off a crushing victory over the Rams and are now third in the league in points per game and are fifth against the run. The Patriots are seventh in the league in rushing and seventh in points allowed.

The matchups I like this week for QBs:
Kurt Warner against the Seahawks. Warner is the No. 1 QB over the past three weeks in Shark league scoring and faces another great matchup against the Seahawks that have now lost seven games on the year. The Seahawks are allowing 252.2 PaYDs (31st) per game with 25.7 ppg (25th). Seattle has also given up 14 PaTDs (23rd) and only has four INTs. The Cardinals offense is clicking and has a balanced attacked allowing old man Warner the chance to put up good numbers.

Peyton Manning against the Texans. In Manning’s first game against the Texans he threw for 247 PaYDs with 2 PaTDs and 1 INT. Manning has been steady as the No. 4 QB over the past three weeks in Shark League scoring and has seven PaTDs over that span. The Texans defense has been middle of the pack in passing as they allow 198.7 PaYds (14th) per game but give up 28.2 ppg (29th) and have surrendered 15 PaTDs (28th) with just six INTs. Manning has been on fire against Houston throughout his career. Since Houston has entered the league in 2002, Manning has five 3-TD games and one 5-TD game. When you’re averaging 2.3 TDs per game against a team, you always look forward to playing them.

Jake Delhomme against the Lions. Delhomme was awful last week playing against the Raiders as he threw for just 72 PaYDs with 1 PaTD and 4 INTs. Playing Detroit at home should get Delhomme back on track as Detroit allows 244.9 PaYDs (29th) per game with 30.8 ppg (31st). The Lions also have given up 15 PaTDs (28th) with only two INTs. If Jake can’t pass against the Lions, he can’t be trusted the rest of the season.

The matchups I like this week for RBs:
Michael Turner against the Broncos. Turner has been productive the past two games after facing tough matchups against the Eagles and the Bears. He now faces a great matchup against the Broncos who give up 146.3 RuYDs (27th) per game with 27.9 ppg. (28th). The Broncos have allowed 11 RuTDs (24th). San Diego is wishing they had Turner as they are 25th in the league in rushing.

Brian Westbrook against the Bengals. Westbrook was held to just 26 RuYDs as the Giants took him out of the equation. The Eagles can’t afford to lose a game to the one-win Bengals. Cincinnati has a poor run defense that allows 138.1 RuYDs (28th) per game with 26.2 ppg. (26th). The Bengals have given up 12 RuTDs (26th). Westbrook should feast on this team and put up great numbers.

Matt Forte against the Packers. Forte ran well against a tough Titans defense last week but needs to score more on the ground. He faces a Packers defense that is great versus the past as they are ranked third in PaYDs allowed but can’t stop the run. They are giving up 154.6 RuYDs (28th) with 22.9 ppg (18th). The Packers have allowed nine RuTDs (19th). Look for the Bears to try to control the game by running Forte as much as possible. This will be the first meeting this year between the two teams as they play again on Monday night in Week 16.

The matchups I don’t like this week for QBs:
Tony Romo against the Redskins. Before breaking his finger, Romo put up three consecutive weeks with three PaTDs. Five weeks later, he finds his team in almost a do or die situation as they need a win to keep pace in the division. They face a tough Washington team that is also coming off a bye and only gives up 191.4 PaYDs (8th) per game with 18.7 ppg. (8th). The Redskins also have allowed just nine PaTDs (6th) with six INTs. For the Romo owners that have survived with out him in the lineup, you may want to see how well he returns from his injury and the frame of mind of the Dallas Cowboys before starting him again.

Brady Quinn against the Bills. Quinn played well in his first pro start but the team is in turmoil after another loss. He faces a Buffalo team on the road that has allowed 205.3 PaYDs (16th) with 21 ppg. (13th). The Buffalo passing defense has been stingy given up only seven PaTDs (3rd) with five INTs. Quinn will also have to face the elements as it will be in the 40’s with a mix of rain and snow.

Gus Frerotte against the Buccaneers. Frerotte turns the ball over a lot. If you’ve picked him up to fill an injury to your QB position or thought he would give your team a boost, now is the time to cut him and grab someone else. He has thrown nine interceptions in the last four games. He faces a tough Tampa Bay defense that has allowed just 190.1 PaYDs (5th) per game with 16.3 ppg. (4th) and they are coming off a bye week. The Bucs have given up 12 PaTD (14th) and has 12 INTs.

The matchups I don't like this week for RB's:
Ladainian Tomlinson against the Steelers. By no means did I list LT for you to bench him but the fact is he hasn’t been producing like the No. 1 drafted player in fantasy leagues. Over the past five weeks he has one game with 100+ yards and has no RuTDs. That has to be killing his owners. The Chargers are averaging just 96.1 RuYDs (25th) a game. They had a good matchup against Kansas City last week and now face a tough Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 69.2 RuYDs (2nd) with 15.6 ppg. (3rd). To make things even harder, the Steelers have surrendered just three RuTDs (3rd).

Kevin Smith against the Panthers. Smith was the one bright spot last week for the disappointing Lions. He scored for the second week in a row but now faces a tough Carolina defense on the road. The Panthers allow 105.1 RuYDs (17th) per game but give up just 14.2 ppg. (2nd). They also have allowed just four RuTDs (4th). Don’t let last weeks game change your mind about Smith as he will have no room to run.

Willis McGahee against the Giants. This game should be a defensive chess match as both teams will be jockeying for field position all game. The Ravens have shown over the past few weeks that they will switch runners when the starter struggles. McGahee stepped back into the spot light again last week scoring twice while rushing for 112 yards as he got the bulk of his carries in the second half. The Giants have clamped down on RBs as they have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this year. The Giants are allowing just 87.7 RuYDs (7th) per game with 17.8 ppg. (6th). The Giants have given up only four RuTDs (4th) and held top RBs Brian Westbrook to 26 RuYDs, Frank Gore to 11 RuYDs and Marion Barber to 54 RuYds.

Week 11: this is the part of the season you need to focus to most on your team as you will be need to manage your team as efficient as possible to win every game. Soon it will be win or go home. Let’s hope you win to play another week.

Good Luck to everyone in Week 11.

Cheers!