London Fletcher @ Dal
Barrett Ruud vs NO
Chad Greenway vs Sea
Thomas Howard vs Cin
I'm currently leaning towards Fletcher @ Dal and Howard vs Cin. My thinking is that Dallas and Cinci run a lot more than either the Saints or Seattle. Additionally, the Redskins and Raiders offenses are so bad that I expect the Ds to be on the field the majority of the game and their opponents running even more because they should be ahead and grinding out the clock.
My counter arguments are that I expect the Seahawks to turn the ball over a lot, and Greenway is pretty decent at getting involved in these kinds of plays while still making a lot of tackles (2 INTs, 1 FF, 2 FRs on the year), and that Ruud is a stud. That said, Ruud is pretty much only a tackling machine and I don't picture the Saints running much this week, especially with Reggie Bush out. Of course, PT is still healthy and this could be an early blowout, thus leading to rushing.
So what does the tank think?
All valid points. Because as you said in the other thread, picking matchups can feel somewhat arbitrary, another way I try to look at things when picking IDPs is picking hot hands over players on a downswing, and also trying to evaluate ceilings and floors based on past performances.
For this reason, I personally would bench Fletcher. He has been on the downswing the last few weeks, and I think he has the lowest floor of all of them. If you look at his more recent performances (last 5 weeks or so) he also has the lowest ceiling. I dunno if age just finally caught up with him or what.....
I think Ruud and Greenway both have the combination of lowest floor and highest ceiling, so I think personally I would roll with them. Also I think Forsett could surprise some people and SEA may run more than we think they will.....but agree that Howard is also a good start and agree that the difference between any combination of these 3 will likely be minimal....