I don't accept that premise at all.
You can't do that, I'm stating my reasons for not accepting your premise
I firmly believe he'll draft-day fall to the 2nd round. You give me a compelling reason why he won't.
Because he's a quarterback. They get overvalued and overdrafted every year. Obviously we'll have a somewhat clearer picture once FA shakes out. Your initial premise assumes a lot of things that haven't happened yet, once everyone gets settled in, we'll see. Just look at Locker and Ponder last year. Lots of people had Locker falling way out of the 1st, Ponder had garnered late 1st/early 2nd buzz and made the leap.
Some people really, really like Tannehill. Don't ask me why, haha, but people, even so called experts, are often very wrong. Remember Mayock's top 2 QBs going into last year's draft? 1. Gabbert 2. Newton.
True, but your assumption is every team is irrational. There are rational teams.
My belief is that all the irrational teams drafted their QB during the run on QBs last year. The only teams left that are QB-less are Seahawks, Browns, and Chiefs, all of which are cheapskates. Of those, the only team with a history of wasting 1st round picks on QBs is the Browns.
Don't forget, Arizona just send a 1st round-grade CB and a 2nd round pick for Kolb. They're invested.