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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 13:43 
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Tanneyhill's competition in 2011:

Team/Overall D Rankings
#14 Texas
#37 SMU
#47 Arkansas
#61 Missouri
#62 Oklahoma
#74 Kansas St
#80 Northwestern
#99 Iowa St
#102 Idaho
#107 Oklahoma St
#114 Baylor
#115 Texas Tech
#120 Kansas (DFL)

Team/Passing D Rankings
#27 Arkansas
#47 Texas
#58 Northwestern
#60 SMU
#65 Texas Tech
#73 Iowa St
#83 Oklahoma
#91 Missouri
#102 Oklahoma St
#104 Kansas St
#108 Kansas
#110 Idaho
#112 Baylor

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Last edited by pwbowen on Mon 04.16.2012, 13:51, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 13:49 
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endzoneview wrote:
pwbowen wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
pwbowen wrote:
Elmagister wrote:
quote="endzoneview" Not to cherry pick stats, but shouldn't teams be worried about Tannehill's performance when he has to play against the top teams with NFL talent?

He threw 6 TD's and 10 INT's and was 0-4 against Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas and Arkansas. He can beat up the crappier teams but didn't show up for the big games. Just some food for thought. /quote

Maybe after sitting a couple years, he'll be good, but this is an issue with me. He was the 5th best QB in his conference (maybe). I just don't get all the buzz. Shouldn't be considered in the first, imo.


And I don't think you can say those Big 12 defenses were 'top teams with NFL talent' cause they were some of the worst in the nation.


'Top teams' in his division is what I meant. While they had down seasons, they do have more than a few NFL talent level players on their team. As opposed to say Baylor (6TD's, 0 INT's). That's really what I was talking about.


Biggest midget when you use "Big 12" and "defense" in the same sentence. And Arkansas wasn't good on D by SEC standards but doesn't matter since they didn't play Ok St in 2011.

I hope people realize what the competion really was when looking at game film for Weeden and for Blackmon also.


Arkansas did play OKSt last year http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=312740008

Again, I'm not defending that the Big 12 defenses were great, just pointing out that when Tannehill faced the tougher teams he underperformed. He can only play who's on his schedule. Flacco played for the University of Delaware so we can't draw conclusions simply due to the level of competition. We can however look to see how a player performs under pressure.


Was corrected before you posted as I was looking at Weeden's schedule.

I'd expect ANY real scouting to definitely take into account the level of competition. And then as you've noted break it down further.

But your basic assumption that the 'better teams he faced created more pressure' is flawed in that almost all the defenses he faced were mediocre. If you had a game where he faced Alabama or LSU or Wisconsin then I could see your point. It's not like Oklahoma State was any challenge to perform well against for a QB.

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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 13:55 
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pwbowen wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
pwbowen wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
pwbowen wrote:

And I don't think you can say those Big 12 defenses were 'top teams with NFL talent' cause they were some of the worst in the nation.


'Top teams' in his division is what I meant. While they had down seasons, they do have more than a few NFL talent level players on their team. As opposed to say Baylor (6TD's, 0 INT's). That's really what I was talking about.


Biggest midget when you use "Big 12" and "defense" in the same sentence. And Arkansas wasn't good on D by SEC standards but doesn't matter since they didn't play Ok St in 2011.

I hope people realize what the competion really was when looking at game film for Weeden and for Blackmon also.


Arkansas did play A&M last year http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=312740008

Again, I'm not defending that the Big 12 defenses were great, just pointing out that when Tannehill faced the tougher teams he underperformed. He can only play who's on his schedule. Flacco played for the University of Delaware so we can't draw conclusions simply due to the level of competition. We can however look to see how a player performs under pressure.


Was corrected before you posted as I was looking at Weeden's schedule.

I'd expect ANY real scouting to definitely take into account the level of competition. And then as you've noted break it down further.

But your basic assumption that the 'better teams he faced created more pressure' is flawed in that almost all the defenses he faced were mediocre. If you had a game where he faced Alabama or LSU or Wisconsin then I could see your point. It's not like Oklahoma State was any challenge to perform well against for a QB.


Fine, sure, they all sucked. I'm not debating that. I don't think the pressure when playing Oklahoma State or Texas is the same as playing Baylor or Iowa St, but that's just my opinion.

What I said was those four teams, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas typically have NFL level talent. I know it was a down year for some of those programs, but regardless of what their stats are, they do have NFL level talent on those teams as opposed to the other teams he beat down.

Basically, what we're both saying is Tannehill underperformed. We're in the same neighborhood, we just took different streets to get there.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 14:18 
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From what I read teams are coming to there senses and Tannehill is starting to fall down the draft boards. beginning to think the QB rush was a 1 year blip. Browns are gushing all over Blackmon trying to scare the Rams.

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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 14:26 
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badgasman9 wrote:
From what I read teams are coming to there senses and Tannehill is starting to fall down the draft boards. beginning to think the QB rush was a 1 year blip. Browns are gushing all over Blackmon trying to scare the Rams.


Yeah, they saw that the last time three QB's were taken in the first 5 picks, it was 1999

1 - Couch
2 - McNabb
3 - Akili


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 14:32 
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badgasman9 wrote:
From what I read teams are coming to there senses and Tannehill is starting to fall down the draft boards. beginning to think the QB rush was a 1 year blip. Browns are gushing all over Blackmon trying to scare the Rams.


Well, last year 4 QBs were drafted in the 1st.

That's not too out of place:
http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/QUART ... ISTORY.pdf


Tannehill goes in the 1st, to fan's joy or dismay, no matter what. Where he goes is the question.


Because of importance in QBs, teams are going to draft the "development-type value players" as back-ups, which raises the prices across the board.

It's pretty easy to look at teams that have lost their QB for part of the season (Eagles, Texans, Colts) and guess at how their fortunes could have changed.


I mean, word is the Broncos are seeking a 2nd/3rd round QB, that they don't even intend to use for 4+ years.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 15:05 
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jnadke wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:
From what I read teams are coming to there senses and Tannehill is starting to fall down the draft boards. beginning to think the QB rush was a 1 year blip. Browns are gushing all over Blackmon trying to scare the Rams.


Well, last year 4 QBs were drafted in the 1st.

That's not too out of place:
http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/QUART ... ISTORY.pdf


Tannehill goes in the 1st, to fan's joy or dismay, no matter what. Where he goes is the question.


Because of importance in QBs, teams are going to draft the "development-type value players" as back-ups, which raises the prices across the board.

It's pretty easy to look at teams that have lost their QB for part of the season (Eagles, Texans, Colts) and guess at how their fortunes could have changed.


I mean, word is the Broncos are seeking a 2nd/3rd round QB, that they don't even intend to use for 4+ years.


i think Tannehill will go in the first but he will be it. I think Tannehill will slide down towards the 20'-25ishs. Some one will trade up and get him or sit back with the mindset if he falls. If the Browns like him, Phins, Bills he won't go at there pick but they trade up later to grab him. for all the QB's in the top 12 last year. Locker Tenn sought a replacement, Ponder is still iffy, Gabbert has bust written all over him. If you use last year model on over purchaing QB's not one team can feel good about selecting Tannehill in the top 15.

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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 15:19 
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badgasman9 wrote:
i think Tannehill will go in the first but he will be it.


I'll agree with you there. I think GMs are sensible and Osweiler/Weeden will be round 2/3 at best.


The link I posted basically showed the following trend:
Code:
1998-2011 #QBs in 1st Round
2-5-1-3-4-4-3-3-2-2-3-2-4


My points are 2 fold:
1. Last year's 4 QBs are not an unusual "run on QBs".
2. There's still likely some pent-up demand from the past few years being lack-luster.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 17:02 
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OarChambo wrote:
SonOfDad wrote:
How good were the teams he beat in 2010? serious question as I don't follow college football. From just glancing at the success of the program in 2010 Tannehill had more talent around him than 2011?
Been trying to get a bead on Tannehill since he might be a Dolphin. Saw a nice writeup by Matt Waldman on him by analyzing gamefilm that gave me a little hope if he does go to Miami.

I wouldn't read too much into 2010 since it was his first year QB'ing, but the raw talent around him in 2011 was better than 2010. Most of the same guys just a year older. Maybe Stonecutter can shed some light on what he thinks the issues were with the team since he's a die hard, I know what I've read elsewhere but I trust his opinion more.

His performances against better teams in 2011 is why I want nothing to do with him in the 1st round. I wrote down, 'would love him at pick 37 but his stock is going to soar this off season' after his bowl game because the raw potential is there but it's just that - raw. There is 0 substance on his resume. You simply cannot burn a 1st round pick on an unknown like this, it's how people lose their jobs.


Without going back and looking at stats, I'll just give my opinion of what I saw in the last two years. I was at every home game the last two years, and several away games (and I watched the away games that were televised that I couldn't go to), plus bowl games.

Tannehill was an excellent QB in 2010 and 2011. The defense was terrible in 2011, which is what lost 90% of the games in 2011 (Oklahoma was the only game that A&M really got outmatched in).

If all you look at is the stat line, you are missing so much. The reason his TDs were down and INTs were up in 2011 was because his receivers were dropping perfectly placed passes left and right. He had an incredible stud WR in Fuller, but Fuller's mind just wasn't right in 2011. He had mentally checked out. Add in that Coach Sherman was dead set on forcing the ball to Fuller all year, despite the drops, and Tannehill's hands were tied. It was incredibly painful to watch this season. Then throw in the stubbornness of Sherman to keep calling the same plays over and over (short comeback routes down the sideline) and the defenses knew it was coming, resulting in DBs jumping in front of the WRs. Sherman refused to let Tannehill air it out to keep the defense honest. Then we lost Christine Michael mid-season and Cyrus Gray near the end of the season, making A&M completely one dimensional with a coach that kept calling the same plays over and over. It was frustrating to say the least.

Also, anyone saying Tannehill only has a little under 2 years experience at QB also isn't paying attention. He was recruited by A&M as a top QB prospect. Unfortunately, Jerrod Johnson was at A&M at the same time. So Tannehill moved out to WR, but he was really a QB.

The guy has an amazing work ethic, and has the skills to be a top QB.

Remember, he beat RGIII, twice. He beat #11 Oklahoma in 2010 and #9 Nebraska in 2010. He beat tu in 2010, and if not for a bogus call at the end of the game would have beat tu in 2011. When his WRs weren't dropping perfect passes, his stats were off the charts.

Now that I've gotten all that off my chest, please forget everything I said and let me grab Tannehill in my dynasty draft.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 18:15 
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Thanks for that SC. Although it doesn't give much hope with Sherman as the OC in Miami if he lands there.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 18:17 
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SonOfDad wrote:
Thanks for that SC. Although it doesn't give much hope with Sherman as the OC in Miami if he lands there.


Doh! :F

I didn't even think of that.


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 18:22 
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endzoneview wrote:
SonOfDad wrote:
Thanks for that SC. Although it doesn't give much hope with Sherman as the OC in Miami if he lands there.


Doh! :F

I didn't even think of that.


Somehow, I didn't either. :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 21:32 
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SonOfDad wrote:
Thanks for that SC. Although it doesn't give much hope with Sherman as the OC in Miami if he lands there.

^^^This is one of the reasons I'm skeptical about the Tannehill/Sherman connection in Miami, Sherman's the one that routinely got blasted on A&M boards when I watched their games. I'm still concerned about Tannehill regardless, the deep ball is inconsistent and his foot work is sloppy and I had heard/seen the Fuller angle...but hadn't thought about the predictable play calling/force feeding Fuller angles - good info there. Swope was really his only relaible target, and I did constantly wonder why he didn't target him ever more than he did. Definitely gave me something to consider though, thanks cutter.

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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 21:54 
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Hope its not Dan henning 2.0


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PostPosted: Mon 04.16.2012, 21:57 
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OarChambo wrote:
SonOfDad wrote:
Thanks for that SC. Although it doesn't give much hope with Sherman as the OC in Miami if he lands there.

^^^This is one of the reasons I'm skeptical about the Tannehill/Sherman connection in Miami, Sherman's the one that routinely got blasted on A&M boards when I watched their games. I'm still concerned about Tannehill regardless, the deep ball is inconsistent and his foot work is sloppy and I had heard/seen the Fuller angle...but hadn't thought about the predictable play calling/force feeding Fuller angles - good info there. Swope was really his only relaible target, and I did constantly wonder why he didn't target him ever more than he did. Definitely gave me something to consider though, thanks cutter.


If you remember, I was ecstatic when I got Tannehill and Swope in the FS College draft. I knew that was the money connection last year. I still think I would have taken the championship if Gray hadn't gone down at the end of the Oklahoma game.

I don't think anyone saw the Fuller meltdown that occurred. That one still makes no sense. And why Sherman didn't bench him still baffles me.


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