FantasySharks.com

There are two types of Fantasy Football Owners: Sharks and Chum, which are you?
It is currently Thu 09.18.2014, 18:46

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 19 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 09:00 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined: Mon 09.26.2011, 09:49
Posts: 2322
Sand$: 5574
Donate
dal.gif
I was just curious what other members of the Tank do in regards to building cheat sheets for various league sizes?

For example - I'm in 3 leagues; a 10 teamer, a 12 teamer, and a 14 teamer.

My cheat sheets currently only have me willing to draft a QB in round 1 of the 10 teamer based on the fact teams will be considerably deeper and I will still likely get plenty of talented starters. Does anyone else tweak their approach based on the league size - or pretty much status quo regardless?

_________________
10 teamer
Manning/Jennings/Greene/Brown/CP/Harvin(f)/Jimmy/Graham/HOU

12 teamer
Foles/Lacy/Gore/Nelson/Cobb/Wayne(f)/Pitta/Tucker/SEA

14 teamer
Ryan/Jennings/Tate/Julio/Wayne/Watkins/Jimmy/Gerhart(f)/Graham/HOU


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 09:19 
Online
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Fri 07.13.2012, 16:47
Posts: 10211
Sand$: 22120
Donate
sf.gif
10 team leagues i take more risks or i'll reach for guys i normally wouldn't do in a 12 team or 14 team.

14 team leagues is the opposite of a 10 for me...i try to get depth. I'm not gonna really reach for guys or take many risks. I want depth at RB and WR. I wait on QB and TE.

:Drink) :thumbright:


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 09:35 
Offline
HammerHead Shark
User avatar

Joined: Wed 09.07.2011, 22:09
Posts: 812
Sand$: 1879
Donate
phi.gif
I feel like the more years of FF experience, the less I have a real strategy beyond Best Player Available. This holds most true in first 7 rounds or so, and then it becomes a risk/reward assessment for the others while looking at team needs and player availability (can i pass on a WR because I can get someone in a tier later so I can get a higher tier in RB, etc.)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 10:11 
Offline
Tiger Shark
User avatar

Joined: Mon 09.02.2013, 08:26
Posts: 224
Sand$: 482
Donate
10 team: Leave QB, TE, and D/ST for 9th round and beyond. Won't draft a backup for these ever. May draft D/ST last and stream. Pretty much BPA based on my own rankings until 5th round, then bolster either RB or WR depending on which position has less depth.

I'll emphasize RB more with more teams, but not to the point of getting Bell/Murray/etc. in the first. If top 5 RBs gone, I'll get best WR and get best RB in 2nd and look for RB2 in the 3rd. If both positions offer less than desired players after RB1 and WR1 picked, I'll look QB.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 10:23 
Offline
HammerHead Shark
User avatar

Joined: Mon 03.24.2014, 10:23
Posts: 877
Sand$: 2286
Donate
pit.gif
The smaller the league size or starting requirements, the more WRs drop on my board (besides Calvin).

Due to the high number of quality WRs, the drop off in WRs numbers between the 1st guy you would draft and the guy you would have to replace him with isn't as great as the replacement value of the RB position.

QB and TE are exactly the same thing. However, the extreme's of those positions (Peyton, Brees, Jimmy, Calvin), the drop off value is high so they actually move up my board.

In a 12 team league, I can pass on the top tier QB, TE, draft one much later and add solid starters in those rounds since they'll all start. However, in smaller league/starting requirements, I wouldn't need all those guys to start so the advantage of picking up all those players is lost.

Smaller leagues/starting requirements require as many studs as possible and the WR drop off is the smallest of all those positions.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 10:28 
Online
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Fri 07.13.2012, 16:47
Posts: 10211
Sand$: 22120
Donate
sf.gif
goingmadd wrote:
The smaller the league size or starting requirements, the more WRs drop on my board (besides Calvin).

Due to the high number of quality WRs, the drop off in WRs numbers between the 1st guy you would draft and the guy you would have to replace him with isn't as great as the replacement value of the RB position.

QB and TE are exactly the same thing. However, the extreme's of those positions (Peyton, Brees, Jimmy, Calvin), the drop off value is high so they actually move up my board.

In a 12 team league, I can pass on the top tier QB, TE, draft one much later and add solid starters in those rounds since they'll all start. However, in smaller league/starting requirements, I wouldn't need all those guys to start so the advantage of picking up all those players is lost.

Smaller leagues/starting requirements require as many studs as possible and the WR drop off is the smallest of all those positions.

this is what i was attempting to write...in a 10 teamer i'm more inclined to go for a Peyton Brees Jimmy. I think i even took Jimmy/Brees combo


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 10:31 
Online
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined: Tue 08.14.2007, 19:07
Posts: 3096
Sand$: 7387
Donate
Location: Salt Lake City
ind.gif
My money league is generally 10-teams. It seems deeper than I would expect with only 2 teams less than the standard 12. I am more willing to consider QB early in that ... QB's get 6-pt TD's also. I've not mocked much yet, but I'm interested in getting Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd in a 10-teamer. When I've looked at ADP, I can draft a strong team, even with the early QB pick. RB-QB (Rodgers)-RB could be very strong, with he RB2 still quite a good prospect.

In a 12-team league, the RB's get picked over so quickly that passing on one is harder.

By ADP at fantasyfootballcalculator.com, 10-team drafts have 6 RB's in the 1st, 5 RB's in the 2nd, and 4 RB's in the 3rd.

But 12-team leagues have 7 RB's in the 1st, 5 in the second, and 5 in the 3rd.

The difference is across an RB tier to me. So I can look at those RB's #12-#15 and feel OK with 3 of them, but across the RB's #12-#17, there are only 2, that I like, and the last ones are sort of dodgy ... Reggie Bush and CJ Spiller at the end of the 3rd don't excite me. Those 2 are 4th round picks in a 10-team ADP.

It sort of depemnds on how you have your RB tiers. I lean to:
Tier 1:
1a: McCoy
1b: Charles
3: FOrte
4: AP

Tier 2:
5: Lacy
6: Ball
7: Lynch

Tier 3:
8: Morris
9: Bell
10: Murray
11: Foster
12: Stacy
13: Martin
14: Bernard
15: Ellington

Tier 3 is where I see a fairly steep drop also. I'll probably re-arrange those guys, but I think there is some fairly large differences between these RB's. But the RB's typically available in the 3rd, by ADP:
3.03 Alfred Morris
3.05 Doug Martin
3.08 Zac Stacy
3.10 Andre Ellington

Particularly if I was drafting at the top, a tier-1 RB and a tier-3 RB, with a Brees or Rodgers would be a very strong draft. In a 14 team league, the ADP's I see show me that RB's get picked over too fast to pass. Anyone taking 1 RB in the 1st two rounds better pull a rabbit out of the hat at the RB slots, or have some real confidence in some of the later tiers. From what I see, there is nothing after the 4th round that has any predictable RB value.

I haven't percolated enough to have a draft strategy yet. My money league email to join just arrived. Shark leagues have a slow draft, and those are my two teams.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 11:57 
Online
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined: Tue 08.28.2012, 19:43
Posts: 6098
Sand$: 5096
Donate
NautArch wrote:
I feel like the more years of FF experience, the less I have a real strategy beyond Best Player Available. This holds most true in first 7 rounds or so, and then it becomes a risk/reward assessment for the others while looking at team needs and player availability (can i pass on a WR because I can get someone in a tier later so I can get a higher tier in RB, etc.)


X2


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 12:24 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined: Mon 09.02.2013, 17:16
Posts: 1515
Sand$: 3612
Donate
hou.gif
Positional scarcity gets more important the more teams are in the league.

_________________
10 TEAM Luck, Newton//Charles, Morris, Jennings, Moreno, Ivory//Ju. Jones, V.Jackson, Harvin, Decker, Welker, Wheaton//Olsen
12 TEAM Cutler//Stacy, J. Bell, Tate, Hyde, P.Thomas//Megatron, AJ Green, K. Allen, Decker, Gordon, Wheaton//Clay


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 15:00 
Offline
HammerHead Shark

Joined: Thu 09.14.2006, 08:25
Posts: 818
Sand$: 2359
Donate
I rarely draft a top 3 QB but like someone else said, in the 1st 1-4 rnds I typically do best player available. I draft 2 out of 10 this year and just did a few mocks last night. If a Brees or Rodgers falls to be at my 2nd pick of a snake draft, there is no way I pass them up even if that is against my normal strategy. More than likely those QB's go too early so I load up on best RB/WR available. In my mocks, by the time my 2nd pick gets back to me all the stud WR's are gone leaving me a choice of Jeffries, Fitz. etc so i've been taking the best RB available which has been bernard. Then on my 3rd pick I see the best WR/TE/RB available. On a few of them I've gone 3 straight RB's which netted me Charles, Murray, Barnard, then I went 4 straight WR's which typically was Fitzgerald, Hilton, Edelman or Floyd, and Watkins or Sanders.

We play a flex in a keeper league so having 3 good RB's is a huge advantage I feel since after the top 10-12 RB's its a crap shoot. I feel there are so many WR's after the elite ones are gone that its a coin flip. Fitzgerald or Floyd few rounds apart in Avg draft position but both likely will have similar stats. So would I rather have a Bernard with my 3rd pick or Jeffries when Fitz or Floyd likely have similar stats to Jeffries. On top of that say I do take Ashlon Jeff. my next shot at a RB will be like Jennings, Spiller, both of which are huge ?.

Should also point out my league is in this 1st draft of a keeper league so my views are skewed towards that as well.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed 08.06.2014, 23:09 
Offline
Whale Shark

Joined: Wed 11.11.2009, 02:30
Posts: 1088
Sand$: 2423
Donate
min.gif
In a 10 team league, everyone has a good team, so you need to figure out how to give yourself an advantage at each position. There is plenty of talent available on the waiver wire, so you can use that as your "spare" bench. There will always be a WR3 available, so don't worry about drafting and holding guys like Steve Smith or Anquan Boldin if you aren't starting them.

In a 12 team league, talent is spread pretty thin, so you'll want to maximize depth at your positions, and those steady boring guys become a bit more valuable.



In the 10 team case, I tend to aim for a top 10 RB, and 3 top 20 WR's. If I'm missing out on Graham, I'm waiting until the 9th or 10th round to grab either Pitta, Green, or Rudolph.

If you view your roster in terms of point values instead of names, this becomes a lot more clear. You can fit this method to your own league scoring, but assuming a hypothetical snake draft roster and points per game:

Example 1: "Typical" snake draft roster

QB: 18 (we'll give Rodgers/Brees/Peyton 20)
RB1: 14 (top 4 studs probably worth 16, but they don't come into this discussion because they are no-brainer draft picks)
RB2: 11
WR1: 13
WR2: 10
WR3: 8
TE: 7 (Jimmy 10)
Sum: 81

If you can upgrade 3 of these positions by a tier and break even at the remaining positions, you can give yourself a statistical advantage each week.

Example 2: Isolate 2 of the stud WR's and have a WR2 in your WR3 position (thus upgrading 2 of your WR position slots by 1 tier each)

QB: 18
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR1a: 13
WR1b: 13
WR2: 10
TE: 7
Sum: 86

Example 3: Jimmy Graham with one WR1 and 2x WR2's (upgrade TE by a tier and WR3 up by a tier)

QB: 18
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR1: 13
WR2a: 10
WR2b: 10
TE: 10 (Jimmy)
Sum: 86

Example 4: Stud QB at the cost of either a WR1 or RB1

QB: 20 (Brees/Peyton/Rodgers)
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR2a: 10 (no WR1)
WR2b: 10
WR3: 8
TE: 7
Sum: 80


Do this exercise with your scoring system and player tiers and see what you come up with. More than likely, taking a stud QB at the cost of a stud RB or WR won't benefit you unless your mid-round picks perform a tier above their ADP. If you skip taking an elite QB, you're breaking even at QB against 6 of your leaguemates, while only giving up an average of 2 or 3 points at the QB position when you play against Brees/Rodgers/Peyton.

For me, it's easier to forecast who the stud WR's will be when compared with the 2nd tier of RB's (players drafted 5-20). It's harder to go after two RB1's (RB5-RB10) at the cost of WR1's since the position has so much turn over from year to year. Guys like Ball, Lynch, and Murray have a 50% chance at finishing lower than an RB2.

_________________
I'll take 6 Schlitz's...


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.07.2014, 08:26 
Offline
Whale Shark
User avatar

Joined: Wed 08.20.2008, 12:29
Posts: 1440
Sand$: 3241
Donate
dal.gif
I would be more willing to draft a top qb in a deep league rather then a shallow one. In a 14/16 team league, the difference between the big 3 and Cutler/Dalton/Ben etc is huge.

The only other real change to my drafting is risk. I am not taking Josh Gordon with pick 100 in a 14 team league but I would take him all day in a 10 team. If he gets suspended, drop him and move on. In a bigger league, a guy like Rueben Randle or Golden Tate are much more important to you as you are likely going to rely on them some time throughout the year.

_________________
16 team ppr league/Return Yards

QB- P. Rivers, Russell Wilson
WR- Reggie Wanye, E. Sanders
WR- Randall Cobb, Brandon Tate
RB- Foster, Donald Brown, Iasaac Redman, John Dwyer
RB- Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Jaquizz
TE- Gates
DEF- Buffalo


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.07.2014, 09:49 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined: Mon 04.21.2014, 17:33
Posts: 1500
Sand$: 3827
Donate
Location: Mississippi
no.gif
I think in a 10 team league you can take more chances cause there will be more players still there in the next round

_________________
QB: Foles, Rivers
RB: C. Johnson, Foster, Blue, Moreno, Miller, West, Khiry Robinson, Asiata
WR: Beckham, Benjamin, Dobson, Fitz, Garçon, Hunter, Maclin, K Allen,
Wheaton, Terrance Williams, M Lee
TE: Ebron, Donnell


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.07.2014, 10:37 
Offline
Tiger Shark

Joined: Tue 03.17.2009, 15:00
Posts: 250
Sand$: 512
Donate
no.gif
I take a lot less changes in the 14 league mostly because the waiver wire is sooooo thin in our league
Trying to convince our commish to change the bench from 7 to 5
If you loose one of your top WR or RB, there isn't much help on the waiver
Luckily the league voted down the IR spot on top of the 7 bench, where you could stash a Player for 4 weeks while injured


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.07.2014, 11:46 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined: Mon 09.26.2011, 09:49
Posts: 2322
Sand$: 5574
Donate
dal.gif
Superfan99 wrote:
In a 10 team league, everyone has a good team, so you need to figure out how to give yourself an advantage at each position. There is plenty of talent available on the waiver wire, so you can use that as your "spare" bench. There will always be a WR3 available, so don't worry about drafting and holding guys like Steve Smith or Anquan Boldin if you aren't starting them.

In a 12 team league, talent is spread pretty thin, so you'll want to maximize depth at your positions, and those steady boring guys become a bit more valuable.



In the 10 team case, I tend to aim for a top 10 RB, and 3 top 20 WR's. If I'm missing out on Graham, I'm waiting until the 9th or 10th round to grab either Pitta, Green, or Rudolph.

If you view your roster in terms of point values instead of names, this becomes a lot more clear. You can fit this method to your own league scoring, but assuming a hypothetical snake draft roster and points per game:

Example 1: "Typical" snake draft roster

QB: 18 (we'll give Rodgers/Brees/Peyton 20)
RB1: 14 (top 4 studs probably worth 16, but they don't come into this discussion because they are no-brainer draft picks)
RB2: 11
WR1: 13
WR2: 10
WR3: 8
TE: 7 (Jimmy 10)
Sum: 81

If you can upgrade 3 of these positions by a tier and break even at the remaining positions, you can give yourself a statistical advantage each week.

Example 2: Isolate 2 of the stud WR's and have a WR2 in your WR3 position (thus upgrading 2 of your WR position slots by 1 tier each)

QB: 18
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR1a: 13
WR1b: 13
WR2: 10
TE: 7
Sum: 86

Example 3: Jimmy Graham with one WR1 and 2x WR2's (upgrade TE by a tier and WR3 up by a tier)

QB: 18
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR1: 13
WR2a: 10
WR2b: 10
TE: 10 (Jimmy)
Sum: 86

Example 4: Stud QB at the cost of either a WR1 or RB1

QB: 20 (Brees/Peyton/Rodgers)
RB1: 14
RB2: 11
WR2a: 10 (no WR1)
WR2b: 10
WR3: 8
TE: 7
Sum: 80


Do this exercise with your scoring system and player tiers and see what you come up with. More than likely, taking a stud QB at the cost of a stud RB or WR won't benefit you unless your mid-round picks perform a tier above their ADP. If you skip taking an elite QB, you're breaking even at QB against 6 of your leaguemates, while only giving up an average of 2 or 3 points at the QB position when you play against Brees/Rodgers/Peyton.

For me, it's easier to forecast who the stud WR's will be when compared with the 2nd tier of RB's (players drafted 5-20). It's harder to go after two RB1's (RB5-RB10) at the cost of WR1's since the position has so much turn over from year to year. Guys like Ball, Lynch, and Murray have a 50% chance at finishing lower than an RB2.


Lots to think about there - appreciated. :Drink)

_________________
10 teamer
Manning/Jennings/Greene/Brown/CP/Harvin(f)/Jimmy/Graham/HOU

12 teamer
Foles/Lacy/Gore/Nelson/Cobb/Wayne(f)/Pitta/Tucker/SEA

14 teamer
Ryan/Jennings/Tate/Julio/Wayne/Watkins/Jimmy/Gerhart(f)/Graham/HOU


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 19 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ass, Bing [Bot], Conan Troutman, ct_bengal, dccaldwe, dpgstl, FrakesJA, Google [Bot], honingskills, Killa CAM CAN!!, mattallyn, noles1983, OleCows, Ravenfan1969, Scaramanga, tderr, votingmachine, WasteOfTime, z_man865 and 38 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group