Hello All. I am already starting to gear up for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and thought I would share my thoughts for this coming season.
My initial thoughts:
1. My draft strategy is to draft for VALUE and of course always take the best player available.
2. WR this season is SUPER deep!
3. RB presents a ton of questions marks and injury concerns. I hope to land an early 1st round pick in my snake drafts so I can get a top 4-5 workhorse back.
4. Another draft thought is to draft one of the top 5 RB's, If I cant get one of them, draft Megatron, if I cant get him, then draft a QB.
My top 10-
10. Andre Johnson-Fitzgerald- Lynch- Forte (4 way tie for me, tough spot to be drafting from)
As you can see, I am a little lower on the big name QB's then most. Again, I believe RB to be so skimpy this year, that I really value the top 5 names and would rather have one of those RB's than any QB or WR. I personally believe Megatron is the only WR worthy of a 1st round pick, due mostly to the depth at the position this year.
Lastly, I want to list a few players at various positions who I think represent good value and/or being valued too low:
WR- (Super deep)
Marshall- Traded to the bears and reunited with Cutler. Had a good year last season with questionable QB play. Could be a top 5 guy and easily a top 10 guy being valued currently as the #12 WR.
Demaryius Thomas- Has major talent and put up a pretty decent year with Tebow and his 7 attempts per game under center. Now Manning comes to town!? Could be drafted as a low end #2 with #1 overall upside.
Kenny Britt- Obviously there are some injury concerns, but the first two weeks of last year he was ELITE. If he can stay on the field for the season he can easily be a top 5-10 WR.
Victor Cruz- Ranked too low considering last years stats and the fact that Manningham is gone.
Colston- Meachem gone and undervalued.
Austin- Robinson is gone now which makes him undervalued as well.
Harvin- Also undervalued and could have an expanded role with questions surrounding AP's health.
Antonio Brown- Another WR that is undervalued and if Wallace leaves, becomes the #1 WR in PIT.
RB- (REALLY thin in 2012)
Matthews- He is ranked pretty fair but I think he outperforms his ADP due to Tolbert being gone, which increases his TD production.
Lynch- Another RB ranked fairly high, but a better QB should take some defensive pressure off of him.
Mcfadden- Obviously a huge injury risk, but has HUGE upside and Michael Bush is no longer in town.
Bradshaw- Undervalued now that Jacobs is not there to vulture goal line work.
Fred Jackson- Was on his way to battling for #1 fantasy RB when he went down with injury. I think its still his job and I think he keeps it with another solid year of elite stats.
Reggie bush- tough to rank him. I think he is undervalued though at RB18. fear of 1 year wonder maybe?
Sproles- Way undervalued after last years production, ESPECIALLY in PPR formats.
Adrian Peterson- I expect his value to climb all the way til draft day, but you could end up getting a top 5-10 RB in round 3 or after which is pretty good.
Mcgahee- Peyton manning and is not in a timeshare, nuff said.
Jahvid best- Another injury prone RB but has HUGE upside. When your talking about potentially your RB3, i would rather have upside and some risk then a guy who is slow and "safe".
Law Firm- Now is the main guy in Cincinatti whom obviously runs the ball considerably more than N.E.
Blount- basically valued too low for a workhorse RB.
* I personally would rather draft someone like Stafford or Newton a full round later then the top 3 names (Rodgers, Brady, Brees) because I think all the top 5 names will have very similiar stats. Even if Newton or Stafford has less points, If I can get a stud RB or megatron in the 1st round to pair them with, then i think my team is significantly stronger than say Brady + Lynch/AJ/Fitz/etc.
1. Vick- Valued as the #6 QB and has already proven he can be fantasys #1 QB.
2. Peyton Manning- Obviously has some risk, but has always produced at an elite level and is currently being valued as the # 7 QB. If I miss out on the bigger names, I have no problem drafting Manning in the middle rounds and then drafting a Matt Ryan, Rivers/ Big ben type of QB for safety.
TE- (pretty deep this year as well, but a big drop off after the first two names)
I personally am going to draft Jimmy graham early or wait 5+ more rounds on a TE this year. Don't get me wrong, I think Gronk is a beast, but I believe his TD will drop, plus will get fewer targets with Brandon Lloyd in N.E. I still see him being a top 2 or 3 TE, but I would much rather Draft Graham over him.
1. Gates- Injury concerns but is being undervalued at 68 overall.
2. Witten- Undervalued at 73 overall.
3. Finley- Had a down year but I think he will return to form and being undervalued at 78 overall.
Also, I'm thinking about drafting a second TE late in the draft as a sleeper. Some names that come to mind that can be drafted fairly late are: Gonzales, Pettigrew, Celek, Fred Davis, Daniels (Dreesen gone), or Tamme/Dreesen (Manning loves his TE's).
Well that's it for now. I did this to get your input on all of this and also to hear your thoughts. Lemme know who YOUR players are this year that you think will outperform where they are being drafted. What's your top 10? Draft Stategy?
I can't wait for the season to start and want to be as prepared as possible come draft day! Peace OUT!!!
Big Money Leagues all day!