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PostPosted: Sat 08.04.2012, 17:32 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
Great, thoughtful answers that have given me a lot to think about. Here's a fact that I hadn't noticed in the updated scoring: Passing yards are awarded as a point per every 25 yards passing as opposed to the usual 20. Mitigates the benefit of the extra 2 points per passing TD a bit, doesn't it.

Does that change any of your positions?


I'm pretty sure the standard value is 25 pass yards per point..

Anyway I guess I will write this one more time since i'm not sure it sunk in the first time I wrote it...


Aaron Rodgers (1st round pick)
Throws 45 tds
6 point per td league = 270 points
4 point per td league = 180 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Rodgers a 90 points increase.



Tony Romo (4th-5th round pick)
Throws 30 tds
6 point per td league = 180 points
4 point per td league = 120 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Romo a 60 points increase.


So, over the entire 16 games, you are gaining a total of 30 points by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.

So, over the course of each individual game, you are gaining a total of 1.875 points per game by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.



Now, is a maximum of 1.875 points per game reason enough to change your entire draft strategy in a 6 point per pass td league? I would say no...


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PostPosted: Sat 08.04.2012, 17:43 
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Sneaky wrote:
kcsportsdoc wrote:
Great, thoughtful answers that have given me a lot to think about. Here's a fact that I hadn't noticed in the updated scoring: Passing yards are awarded as a point per every 25 yards passing as opposed to the usual 20. Mitigates the benefit of the extra 2 points per passing TD a bit, doesn't it.

Does that change any of your positions?


I'm pretty sure the standard value is 25 pass yards per point..

Anyway I guess I will write this one more time since i'm not sure it sunk in the first time I wrote it...


Aaron Rodgers (first round pick)
Throws 45 tds
6 point per td league = 270 points
4 point per td league = 180 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Rodgers a 90 points increase.



Tony Romo (4th-5th round pick)
Throws 30 tds
6 point per td league = 180 points
4 point per td league = 120 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Romo a 60 points increase.


So, over the entire 16 games, you are gaining a total of 30 points by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.

So, over the course of each individual game, you are gaining a total of 1.875 points per game by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.



Now, is a maximum of 1.875 points per game reason enough to change your entire draft strategy in a 6 point per pass td league? I would say no...


Oh, I heard ya, Sneaky.

I was just curious if it would change anyone's position. Maybe bring up something I hadn't considered. To me, it appears that the benefit of taking the (probable) No. 1 QB is probably not worth the weakening of the other positions on the team.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.04.2012, 18:38 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
Sneaky wrote:
kcsportsdoc wrote:
Great, thoughtful answers that have given me a lot to think about. Here's a fact that I hadn't noticed in the updated scoring: Passing yards are awarded as a point per every 25 yards passing as opposed to the usual 20. Mitigates the benefit of the extra 2 points per passing TD a bit, doesn't it.

Does that change any of your positions?


I'm pretty sure the standard value is 25 pass yards per point..

Anyway I guess I will write this one more time since i'm not sure it sunk in the first time I wrote it...


Aaron Rodgers (first round pick)
Throws 45 tds
6 point per td league = 270 points
4 point per td league = 180 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Rodgers a 90 points increase.



Tony Romo (4th-5th round pick)
Throws 30 tds
6 point per td league = 180 points
4 point per td league = 120 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Romo a 60 points increase.


So, over the entire 16 games, you are gaining a total of 30 points by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.

So, over the course of each individual game, you are gaining a total of 1.875 points per game by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.



Now, is a maximum of 1.875 points per game reason enough to change your entire draft strategy in a 6 point per pass td league? I would say no...


Oh, I heard ya, Sneaky.

I was just curious if it would change anyone's position. Maybe bring up something I hadn't considered. To me, it appears that the benefit of taking the (probable) No. 1 QB is probably not worth the weakening of the other positions on the team.


Have you done any mocks at FantasyFootballCalculator.com?

If not, give it a try. Take Rodgers in the first round and then draft accordingly.

Then take a RB first and a QB later.

Rinse and repeat.

Compare and decide which strategy makes more sense.

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Stafford
McKinnon, Hill, Sims, Latavius, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 12:10 
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Sneaky wrote:
kcsportsdoc wrote:
Great, thoughtful answers that have given me a lot to think about. Here's a fact that I hadn't noticed in the updated scoring: Passing yards are awarded as a point per every 25 yards passing as opposed to the usual 20. Mitigates the benefit of the extra 2 points per passing TD a bit, doesn't it.

Does that change any of your positions?


I'm pretty sure the standard value is 25 pass yards per point..

Anyway I guess I will write this one more time since i'm not sure it sunk in the first time I wrote it...


Aaron Rodgers (1st round pick)
Throws 45 tds
6 point per td league = 270 points
4 point per td league = 180 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Rodgers a 90 points increase.



Tony Romo (4th-5th round pick)
Throws 30 tds
6 point per td league = 180 points
4 point per td league = 120 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Romo a 60 points increase.


So, over the entire 16 games, you are gaining a total of 30 points by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.

So, over the course of each individual game, you are gaining a total of 1.875 points per game by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.



Now, is a maximum of 1.875 points per game reason enough to change your entire draft strategy in a 6 point per pass td league? I would say no...


Great analysis. I love when stats back up an opinion rather than "yea it does!" or "not really". I've tried explaining almost this exact same scenario to friends and they look at me like I have 2 heads. Well done. :D


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 12:19 
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TheNataliePortmans wrote:
kcsportsdoc wrote:
Sneaky wrote:
kcsportsdoc wrote:
Great, thoughtful answers that have given me a lot to think about. Here's a fact that I hadn't noticed in the updated scoring: Passing yards are awarded as a point per every 25 yards passing as opposed to the usual 20. Mitigates the benefit of the extra 2 points per passing TD a bit, doesn't it.

Does that change any of your positions?


I'm pretty sure the standard value is 25 pass yards per point..

Anyway I guess I will write this one more time since i'm not sure it sunk in the first time I wrote it...


Aaron Rodgers (first round pick)
Throws 45 tds
6 point per td league = 270 points
4 point per td league = 180 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Rodgers a 90 points increase.



Tony Romo (4th-5th round pick)
Throws 30 tds
6 point per td league = 180 points
4 point per td league = 120 points

A 6 point per pass td league gives Romo a 60 points increase.


So, over the entire 16 games, you are gaining a total of 30 points by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.

So, over the course of each individual game, you are gaining a total of 1.875 points per game by selecting Rodgers over Romo is a 6 point per pass td league.



Now, is a maximum of 1.875 points per game reason enough to change your entire draft strategy in a 6 point per pass td league? I would say no...


Oh, I heard ya, Sneaky.

I was just curious if it would change anyone's position. Maybe bring up something I hadn't considered. To me, it appears that the benefit of taking the (probable) No. 1 QB is probably not worth the weakening of the other positions on the team.


Have you done any mocks at FantasyFootballCalculator.com?

If not, give it a try. Take Rodgers in the first round and then draft accordingly.

Then take a RB first and a QB later.

Rinse and repeat.

Compare and decide which strategy makes more sense.


Another great reply. I think doing a mock draft or two (or 10) gives the best idea. You'll really get an idea of a possible team with Rodgers as your first pick, but then a RB (Charles/AP) that may not be as serviceable as Matthews as your 2nd pick, then a RB (Sproles/Martin) in the 3rd.
Compare that to Matthews as your first pick, the same RB (Charles/AP) in the 2nd, then Romo/Stafford etc. in the 3rd. Then compare projected points for each mock and bingo..


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 13:00 
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There's no way you pass on Rogers in a 6PT TD non PPR league, if Rogers isn't there then take Brady, Newton, Brees or Stafford. In a 12 team league your top QBs are going to be gone in the 1st two rounds. Also there's no way Chris Johnson goes before Ryan Mathews in any league.


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 17:35 
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Rocket01 wrote:
There's no way you pass on Rogers in a 6PT TD non PPR league, if Rogers isn't there then take Brady, Newton, Brees or Stafford. In a 12 team league your top QBs are going to be gone in the 1st two rounds. Also there's no way Chris Johnson goes before Ryan Mathews in any league.


:F

Sneaky- great job on the explanation. Unfortunately you can lead a horse to water...

And I'll take Johnson over Mathews. Not by a bunch, but still.

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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 19:49 
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fishfry wrote:
Rocket01 wrote:
There's no way you pass on Rogers in a 6PT TD non PPR league, if Rogers isn't there then take Brady, Newton, Brees or Stafford. In a 12 team league your top QBs are going to be gone in the 1st two rounds. Also there's no way Chris Johnson goes before Ryan Mathews in any league.


:F

Sneaky- great job on the explanation. Unfortunately you can lead a horse to water...

And I'll take Johnson over Mathews. Not by a bunch, but still.


The guy picking 4th told me he's taking Johnson and while I would normally take any statement from a FF player about who he's taking with what pick with a HUGE grain of salt, this guy doesn't lie about stuff like that. He's honorable that way... completely insane mind you, but honorable. :)

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QB: Brees
RB: Charles, Forte, Latavius, Bryce Brown
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TE: Donnell
DST: DET, CHI
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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 20:17 
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and BTW, Thanks TheNataliePortmans for the tip about fantasyfootballcalculator.com. I've been on there for the last couple of hours and I think it's going to be very helpful.

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QB: Brees
RB: Charles, Forte, Latavius, Bryce Brown
WR: Benjamin, DJax, Crabtree, Randle, Stills
TE: Donnell
DST: DET, CHI
K: Carpenter


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 20:19 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
and BTW, Thanks TheNataliePortmans for the tip about fantasyfootballcalculator.com. I've been on there for the last couple of hours and I think it's going to be very helpful.


You're welcome.

Not sure when your draft is, but keep doing them between now and then. You'll find the market changes rapidly, especially when exhibition games begin.

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Stafford
McKinnon, Hill, Sims, Latavius, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 21:05 
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How true to life do you find these mocks? When I started playing online poker a hundred years ago, I played a lot of free games at first, thinking it would help me when I started playing for real. Instead, I found that people made all kinds of crazy moves they wouldn't in cash games. Well, I guess we'll see. Hopefully, people are taking them seriously.

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QB: Brees
RB: Charles, Forte, Latavius, Bryce Brown
WR: Benjamin, DJax, Crabtree, Randle, Stills
TE: Donnell
DST: DET, CHI
K: Carpenter


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PostPosted: Sun 08.05.2012, 23:05 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
How true to life do you find these mocks? When I started playing online poker a hundred years ago, I played a lot of free games at first, thinking it would help me when I started playing for real. Instead, I found that people made all kinds of crazy moves they wouldn't in cash games. Well, I guess we'll see. Hopefully, people are taking them seriously.


Been mocking at FFC for a few years. You'll always find the occasional idiot who thinks it's funny to take John Skelton or Tim Tebow at 1.3, but in general they are pretty solid.

The users don't always go with super hot trends. The offseason before Foster's breakout, I was consistently getting him in the 6th round. When I drafted in both my leagues, he didn't make it past the 4th.

Finally, you'll find that after the 7th round, more than a few folks will drop off. Makes it tough to figure out if your sleepers are on the general public's radar. But I've seen similar or worse elsewhere.

As to the original question, I've always played in 6 point passing TD leagues, and have always stuck to the RB first mentality.

While there is no additional advantage to rushing TDs from Vick and Newton, a TD is a TD. The ADP for Vick on FFC, for example, is at 4.01 in 12 team standard. Even in 4 point TD passing leagues he's not flying off the board yet.

On the other hand the RBs you'll be looking at with the 20th pick (assuming a few more QBs go early) are Charles, Peterson (with PUP still likely), SJax, Lynch and FJax.

So for your haul in the first 2 rounds, the real question is would you rather end up with Rodgers+one of those 5 backs, or Mathews+Vick/Romo/Peyton?

Worst case, if there is a QB run in the 1st 19 picks that takes 11 QBs off the board, you will theoretically have a top 5 back and a top 4 WR in your 1st 2 picks... plus the ability to wait until at least the 7th to get a QB.

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PostPosted: Mon 08.06.2012, 09:02 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
How true to life do you find these mocks? When I started playing online poker a hundred years ago, I played a lot of free games at first, thinking it would help me when I started playing for real. Instead, I found that people made all kinds of crazy moves they wouldn't in cash games. Well, I guess we'll see. Hopefully, people are taking them seriously.


I started doing them last month mainly to test the "ya gotta take an RB or 2 RBs at the top of the draft" theory.

Picking at 11 in a 12-team PPR, I was thinking there were so many question marks after the first 4-5 RBs, that I might take Brady/Brees and Jimmy with my first two picks. You know, "sure things."

But when I saw which RBs I ended up with, and how it also affected the WRs I could get, I realized the folly (and there are plenty of people at 11 or 12 who are picking this way).

Now, I take at least one or 2 of the Top 9 RBs, take WRs the next three rounds, QB at 5/6, wait on a TE and draft for massive depth at RB and WR.

Sure, some guys are making ridiculous picks, but most play it straight.

What I do is turn on the bell and and do other stuff on my 'puter between picks.

I'm always well-prepared for my draft, but this year I think I'll be even more prepared.

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12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
McKinnon, Hill, Sims, Latavius, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks


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PostPosted: Wed 08.08.2012, 10:43 
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I think the biggest difference in mock drafts as opposed to the league's i'm in is that RB's go slightly earlier in my league drafts than in the mock drafts.


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PostPosted: Wed 08.08.2012, 13:36 
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kcsportsdoc wrote:
fishfry wrote:
Rocket01 wrote:
There's no way you pass on Rogers in a 6PT TD non PPR league, if Rogers isn't there then take Brady, Newton, Brees or Stafford. In a 12 team league your top QBs are going to be gone in the 1st two rounds. Also there's no way Chris Johnson goes before Ryan Mathews in any league.


:F

Sneaky- great job on the explanation. Unfortunately you can lead a horse to water...

And I'll take Johnson over Mathews. Not by a bunch, but still.


The guy picking 4th told me he's taking Johnson and while I would normally take any statement from a FF player about who he's taking with what pick with a HUGE grain of salt, this guy doesn't lie about stuff like that. He's honorable that way... completely insane mind you, but honorable. :)



interesting... dont want to hijack this thread with CJ vs. RM... but please see my thread about my dilemma picking #5: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=286557


and i think i agree with Sneaky that while Rodgers is tempting... even a slightly QB-heavy scoring setting doesn't sway me away from going RB-RB in the first 2 rounds.

sure, Rodgers/Brees/Brady could carry you to a title... but you generally play 2 RBs and maybe a third at the flex. you need good/great backs, and their are fewer (and you start twice as many each week). and while the Romos/RIvers/Ryans also benefit from the same scoring settings as the elite QBs... remember to factor in the point difference of having a great RB over a mediocre one, and then DOUBLE it cuz you start 2 backs.

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