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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 21:57 
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Great White Shark
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Just completed a 14 team mock and this discussion came up. I find it to be an interesting read. Just thought I would share it....(if wrong forum move it , but since it is draft relevent I thought this was OK place)


Quote:
UDOGS: what do u all really think of stewart?
j,: i like him i think u took him to early though (3.01)
its time: still behind dwilliams
UDOGS: he would have been gone next time round
j,: ya but u could have gotten a starter instead
UDOGS: true
UDOGS: trying different combos
ICE: could have gotten another starter but outside of Felix he could not have gotten another 1000 yard rusher
j,: moreno, wells, brown, forte, addai, forsett, best, all capable of 1000
its time: i agree with j
ICE: Moreno=no...what happened to Barber last year and Portis the year before that on hammy issues
ICE: wells..maybe
ICE: brown with ricky unlikely
j,: brown was domianting last year until he got hurt
ICE: CHI gave Taylor a good amount of money for a reason so Forte has the ability but im not certain he will be given the chancce and Cutler wants to use his cannon for redempption
ICE: but that is Brown story every year even at Auburn
ICE: Indy last in rushing last year and Peyton will throw for 4000+, but contract year for Addai so a chance but unlikely
j,: stop making exscuse for every player
j,: u dont know whats going to happen i said they have the potental for 1000
ICE: Forsett and Best same problem not great O-Lines and not great offenses add in fact they are both from Cal and had average careers and Best's injury yikes
ICE: i know what you said
ICE: and if you are preparing for a draft dont look in a tunnel
ICE: others may want the insight if you dont dont read

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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 22:21 
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I found that read quite confusing. Was that the point? :?

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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 22:43 
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not sure if I got your point either, but I aggree that rd 3, pick 1 is to early for J Stewert.

you never know whos in those mock drafts, could be a 12 year old kid...or my wife!

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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 23:02 
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the professor of fantasy wrote:
not sure if I got your point either, but I aggree [sic] that rd 3, pick 1 is to early for J Stewert.


Hey, if he wanted Stewart, he wanted him. Your tiers might be completely different than his. It's only officially "too early" if you can't get him the next round (which he likely wouldn't have since it was 27 picks until his next turn).

To the OP: what exactly did you want to discuss within that conversation?


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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 23:15 
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neal123454 wrote:
the professor of fantasy wrote:
not sure if I got your point either, but I aggree [sic] that rd 3, pick 1 is to early for J Stewert.


Hey, if he wanted Stewart, he wanted him. Your tiers might be completely different than his. It's only officially "too early" if you can't get him the next round (which he likely wouldn't have since it was 27 picks until his next turn).

To the OP: what exactly did you want to discuss within that conversation?



I dont actually know off hand Stewarts ADP but dont you think rd 3 is to early for a teams second back?

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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 23:36 
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that conversation made less sense than a dog trying to f*** a fire hydrant.

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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 23:48 
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the professor of fantasy wrote:
I dont actually know off hand Stewarts ADP but dont you think rd 3 is to early for a teams second back?


It is earlier than his ADP, yes. But the only thing an ADP is good for is letting you know when you should pull the trigger on the players you want. In this case, he had to pull the trigger then to get him.

Whether you or I think he is in for a big year is irrelevant. If we don't want people to draft for themselves, then we should just play against computers.


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PostPosted: Fri 08.06.2010, 23:59 
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Getting the guy you want is one thing but getting good value s something else. Let's say I want Moss. I have the #2 pick. He isn't going to be there in the 2nd round for me. Should I take him instead of Peterson? NO! If you want to win you have to get value for your picks. Taking someone at 3.01 when they should go 4.0? is a good way to start the season on the short end of the talent gap.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 00:21 
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usch8r wrote:
Getting the guy you want is one thing but getting good value s something else. Let's say I want Moss. I have the #2 pick. He isn't going to be there in the 2nd round for me. Should I take him instead of Peterson? NO! If you want to win you have to get value for your picks. Taking someone at 3.01 when they should go 4.0? is a good way to start the season on the short end of the talent gap.


Not everyone agrees what Stewart's value is. Who says Stewart should go 4.0? You? Your projections might be miles away from his.


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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 00:28 
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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 01:26 
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You should not reach for picks but if you truly believe in a players talent and chances that season you should take that player. Your Moss comparison is kinda off but if you truly think will get you a bigger advantage than AP in that situation you should take him. Many people will disagree which is what you seem to be doing with Stewart, value is important but there is something to be said for getting the players your truly think will shine and this especially holds true when drafting on the turns.


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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 05:47 
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Last year a guy in our league took TE Brent Celek in the 5th. we're still giving him crap about it. he actually did pretty good (Celek and his FF team) but he could have got him in the 10th.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 08:56 
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the professor of fantasy wrote:
Last year a guy in our league took TE Brent Celek in the 5th. we're still giving him crap about it. he actually did pretty good (Celek and his FF team) but he could have got him in the 10th.



maybe someone else was targeting him in the sixth?

The year Gates broke out I took him 2 rounds earlier than his ADP and was given crap for taking a sleeper too soon. I just believed in his talent and felt someone else would realize his worth and beat me to him. It's a gamble either way. If I would have waited and missed him, would that have been better or worse?


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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 09:04 
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neal123454 wrote:
usch8r wrote:
Getting the guy you want is one thing but getting good value s something else. Let's say I want Moss. I have the #2 pick. He isn't going to be there in the 2nd round for me. Should I take him instead of Peterson? NO! If you want to win you have to get value for your picks. Taking someone at 3.01 when they should go 4.0? is a good way to start the season on the short end of the talent gap.


Not everyone agrees what Stewart's value is. Who says Stewart should go 4.0? You? Your projections might be miles away from his.


I always laugh at the folks who act like they actually KNOW what players' values are. I'm sure this same conversation happened with Ray Rice last year. I reached at 3.01 to get him because I wanted him and I valued him. You take the players YOU want, not want some Average Draft Position dictates because THAT'S what the masses say it is. The general public is pretty frigin' stupid most of the time.

If there's a guy you want you grab him. A little early is better than missing out.

Stewart's isn't a backup like most 2nd string RBs in the league. He's basically RB1B and will get 40% to 50% of the carries on a team that will be in the Top 3 in the league in run attempts this year.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.07.2010, 09:36 
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Matt Forte's rookie breakout season I selected him about 2 rounds before his ADP, but I was just so excited about him that I couldn't help it. Turned out to be a pretty good thing. But I think you should stick to the 'pick the best player available' strategy to start, say, the first 5-6 rounds, and then switch to your sleepers and players you want to run a chance on.

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