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 Post subject: When a Bad Plan Goes Bad
PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 09:19 
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Alright my Shark 'perts...how bad did I screw this up.

This is my 10 team local money league..keep 5
H2H Dailey Lineups
Scoring: 7X6
R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG.-OBP-Total Bases
W-L-SV-K-ERA-WHIP

I ended up with
C-Miguel Montero
1B-Paul Konerko K
2B-Brandon Phillips
3B-Brett Lawrie K
SS- Dee Gordon
OF-Carlos Gonzalez/Giancarlo Stanton/Matt Holliday...all K
UT-Michael Morse

Bench- Howie Kendrick/Ike Davis

Pitchers
Strasburg/Pineda/Romero/Jimenez/Kuroda/Lilly/Colby Lewis/Stauffer/Billingsley/Gavin Floyd
Feliz/Sale/Chapman/Street/League

daily lineups..no inning limit

I didn't keep a pitcher and filled my starting offensive lineup first. My plan was to grab 1 top 20 pitcher and then throw quantity at a decent quality every week. I would perhaps lose the loss catagory, but win the W and the K.

The only thing is, the league as a whole changed their draft strategies. Previously, I was the only team, every year, to go with a minimum bench and overload on pitchers. Well the league caught up with me, as I dominated the pitching catagories every season, and most everyone shortened their benches and drafted more pitchers. In a 10 team league, there were 118 pitchers drafted, this left me with slimmer pickings than in previous drafts. Plus, they actually did some homework and snatched a couple of up and comers a little earlier than I thought.

The first pitcher I drafted was Strasburg, who will have some limitations this season, but this was a look towards the future

I drafted Sale/Feliz/Chapman who, if they maintain a rotation spot, I will plug in to a RP spot for additional starts

Did I screw this up and do you think this strategy will actually work?


Last edited by 10ball on Tue 03.13.2012, 10:13, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 09:42 
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Well...

I actually think you're in pretty good shape.

Your AVG will leave something to be desired. To be totally honest, I only play in a single league with OBP, and none with Total Bases... so I'll defer to others (*cough hard10 oar cough*) regarding those cats. My guess is that you'll be middle of the road for OBP and above average for Total Bases since you do have a solid lineup.

I'm not sure how the eligibility in your league works, but I'm pretty sure Jesus Montero won't be starting off the year as a C. Reports and playing time out of camp so far indicate he'll start a few days each week, so depending on your rules (10 games or 25), he could gain eligibility at C in a few weeks or a few months...

Frankly, you have quite a few pitchers this year who I've been avoiding in drafts, simply because they're either in flux (Pineda, Jimenez, Kuroda) or single-handedly ruin a stat cat for the week (Billingsley & WHIP). Pineda and Kuroda moving to Yankee Stadium scares me. A lot. I've liked Kuroda for the past few years, because he was playing on an underachieving team in a pitchers ballpark. Same could be said for Pineda. Now that the bright lights are upon them, it'll be interesting to see what happens. I don't like interesting. Still, they'll get wins and that'll help to offset the ERA/WHIP bump.

I like Strasburg this year, but he's been going too high for me to target typically. He should provide #1 or #2 numbers. I like Romero as well, people finally seem to be coming around to him. Stauffer is a good pick late.

Without seeing other teams it's hard to tell for sure, but I think you're probably in good shape here. I might cut a weak starter for an elite MR to eat innings, get K, and pick up vulture wins/saves like Jansen, Venters, Pestano, Clippard, Reed, etc... and add a C if Montero isn't eligible.

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 10:12 
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Virro wrote:


I'm not sure how the eligibility in your league works, but I'm pretty sure Jesus Montero won't be starting off the year as a C. Reports and playing time out of camp so far indicate he'll start a few days each week, so depending on your rules (10 games or 25), he could gain eligibility at C in a few weeks or a few months...


edit
should Miguel Montero ...not Jesus


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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 10:51 
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Strasburg's going to be tough to swallow come H2H playoffs, I liked your strategy but I think that particular pick was a mistake. You're either going to have to work an in-season trade or hope you stream well come September. To a lesser degree, this could also become problematic with Feliz, Sale, and Aroldis. They're all less valuable in H2H. I like what you did with pitching after your 1-2-3, but think your top 3 may be the weakest in the league. I think you should drop Lilly and use his roster spot to stream and speculate on saves in the interim. Shoot to win W's and K's, hope to find another closer or 2 so you can win SV's. You'll probably lose L's, ERA, and WHIP more often than not but those at least are volatile cats.

You have a championship caliber offense if Gordon hits enough to keep the job and stay at the top of the order, he'll carry steals by himself and the rest of your team is full of pop. You do have a few players that don't believe in buying walks though (Phillips, Morse, Kendrick) so be careful with that.

As a whole, during April be on the lookout for as much high upside as possible. You need to build some depth in order to execute trades, as is your only position of strength is 2B. Maybe a guy like Peter Bourjos, if he sticks at the top of the order you can afford to sell one of your OF's for an ace and plug him in. Unless you strike pitching gold you're going to need to use your depth somewhere to fix the problem.

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 12:41 
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I will agree the Strasburg pick was a mistake,because of who was on the board at the time, and I was cussing myself immediately after the choice, because I knew I had screwed up.

I passed over Lester, who somehow fell through the cracks, for Strasburg.
If I had Lester at the top of this rotation, I would feel better.


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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 13:50 
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don't get attached to any of your pitchers.
You've got a lot of replacement level pitchers. Kuroda, Billingsley, Lewis, Floyd... all can be useful, but there are arms as good or better available on the wire in 10 team leagues. don't be afraid to cut them at the first sign of a breakout from an available pitcher.
Even the young guys you've got can be jettisoned at any time. Chapman, Sale, Pineda, Staufer, Feliz... I like the long term potential of some of them, but I think all will struggle to some extent (some a lot) this season and with only 5 keepers and no draft penalties, none of those guys are likely to make the cut anyway. Even if all goes well this season, they're probably not top 50 players next year, so there's no reason to hesitate to dump them if you see a better option available.
in a league this shallow, you need to have a quick trigger finger when it comes to adding young guys or guys who start hot.

if available, I'd add Trevor Bauer right now. He may start the season in the minors (though he's better than either Saunders or Collmenter right now), but he'll be up soon, and he's an immediate impact arm.

who are the free agent pitchers?

I like the offense, with SS the only spot that I'd try hard to upgrade right now. Dee Gordon is a poor OBP guy who provides steals and nothing else. Those guys are worth more in roto leagues than H2H, because when they aren't stealing bases they're essentially 0's in your lineup.

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 13:53 
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10ball wrote:
I will agree the Strasburg pick was a mistake,because of who was on the board at the time, and I was cussing myself immediately after the choice, because I knew I had screwed up.

I passed over Lester, who somehow fell through the cracks, for Strasburg.
If I had Lester at the top of this rotation, I would feel better.


on a per-start basis, I'd rather have Strasburg and figure out how to compensate for him getting shut down in August later

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 14:17 
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The top available upside, IMO, free agents out there are

Henderson Alvarez
Matt Harrison
Juan Nicasio

The pitching pickings are a little slimmer than I like. My league mates, did a good job of drafting

There are a number of usable pitchers, but few much better than what is on my roster


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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 14:28 
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Add Alvarez and Nicasio, drop Lilly and Colby (I am always apprehensive about Texas pitchers).

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 14:41 
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10ball wrote:
The top available upside, IMO, free agents out there are

Henderson Alvarez
Matt Harrison
Juan Nicasio

The pitching pickings are a little slimmer than I like. My league mates, did a good job of drafting

There are a number of usable pitchers, but few much better than what is on my roster


I like both Alvarez and Nicasio more than a couple guys you've got on your roster now.

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PostPosted: Tue 03.13.2012, 15:02 
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hard 10 wrote:
10ball wrote:
The top available upside, IMO, free agents out there are

Henderson Alvarez
Matt Harrison
Juan Nicasio

The pitching pickings are a little slimmer than I like. My league mates, did a good job of drafting

There are a number of usable pitchers, but few much better than what is on my roster


I like both Alvarez and Nicasio more than a couple guys you've got on your roster now.


I have a waiver claim in for Alvarez already for Billingsley..I'll trade a few K's for the massive WHIP improvement


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PostPosted: Wed 09.19.2012, 16:53 
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So it shall end...probably

I ended up with an overall record of 150-106-10
In 1st place

I streamed the bejeezuz out of pitchers...ended up with 183 moves for the season
I was top 3 in all offensive catagories, except steals

In the championship, and my lineup fell apart
Stanton-out
CarGo-out
Encarnacion-out
Espinoza-who was my SS- out
Morse-out, dropped at the end of last week because of his wrist

and Strasburg of course

and Scherzer, who I had traded for, gets pulled from his start

ah, my luck in the playoffs :lol:

Oar, I know you had talked about the limited bench, and use the maximum amount of pitchers as you can, and it's a strategy I plan to use again next season


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