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PostPosted: Mon 09.26.2011, 22:06 
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PostPosted: Wed 09.28.2011, 18:48 
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So I'm not a Pettigrew fan. Right before last week I compiled the following numbers to convince my buddy that my analysis of Pettigrew is better than his "hunch". Great timing. Stafford used Pettigrew like a RB last week. My question to you all is do you think this was an aberration or is slow, red zone unfriendly, boring Pettigrew morphing into a regular target for Stafford. I believe this was a complete fluke but it's definitely annoying that he went off for a career game right after I posted this on my league message board.

Fluke or Trend?


Here are Pettigrews and Staffords stats when both are on the field at the same time since 2009 including this years two games... (14 games... almost a full season)

Stafford: 294 completions, 3258 yards, 25 TD's

Pettigrew: 39s receptions, 439 yards, 4 TD's


Percentage wise, of Staffords completions and yards and TD's that's:

13.2% of staffords completions go to pettigrew
13.5% of yards thrown by stafford go to pettigrew
16.0% of TD's thrown my stafford go to pettigrew

Now I'll divide Pettigrews numbers by 14 (they played together 14 times)and then multiply by 16 so you can see a projected season...

44.6 receptions
501.7 yards
4.6 TD's

Now I'll divide that by 16 so we can get a per game time prediction of what to expect:

2.8 receptions
31.4 yards
0.29 TD's

Points per game in our league that equates to: (1 per reception, .5 per 10 yards and 6 for TD)

3 for receptions
1.5 for yards
1.74 for TD's

Total that is: 6.24 per game


(This only goes up until week 2 of 2011 season, created this before last week)

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16 Team PPR - IDP

QB - Brees
RB - McK
RB/WR - Oliver/Hillman (?)
WR - Steve Smith
WR - KBenj
WR/TE - Reed/Holmes (?)
TE - Kelce

Bench: Josh Gordon, Crowell, Hunter


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PostPosted: Thu 09.29.2011, 17:47 
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Bump.

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16 Team PPR - IDP

QB - Brees
RB - McK
RB/WR - Oliver/Hillman (?)
WR - Steve Smith
WR - KBenj
WR/TE - Reed/Holmes (?)
TE - Kelce

Bench: Josh Gordon, Crowell, Hunter


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PostPosted: Thu 09.29.2011, 23:00 
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Great White Shark
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I think some context needs to be applied to those stats. Especially since you're not factoring in Pettigrew's explosion last week. Those 14 games are spread over 3 seasons, with the majority of them coming in Pettigrew's rookie season. In reality, Stafford and Pettigrew haven't had that much time on the field to build up a significant rapport and level of trust. The game from last week may be a sign that they're starting to get there.

As far as fluke or trend goes, I'd say neither. I don't think it's the start of a trend in which Pettigrew receives double digit receptions every week, but I do think that he's too talented to call it a fluke. I can see him developing into a very valuable safety valve option for Stafford. He's probably the least explosive of all Stafford's regular weapons so when they play weaker defenses that can't cover Calvin, Young, Burleson, or contain Best, he'll probably be left out in the cold and you'll see lines like 2-20-0. But when they play decent defenses, especially those that can get pressure on Stafford, I think he'll see closer to the sort of production we saw last week. The good news then for Pettigrew owners is that all 3 of the Lions' divisional rivals can get after the QB.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.30.2011, 01:08 
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I don't think pettigrew is that talented. Other than blocking he's very average at best. Last week was an abberation. It's never happened before. That's what career games are.

He's not really a red zone threat. He's Slow. And he's not athletic. The only reason he was used last week as much as he was is that the lions couldn't establish a running attack. Stafford prefers the receivers. It's his career pattern. Some guys love the TEs. Some don't as much. In my 16 team league there is no way I would want to be stuck starting him.

Anyways the numbers in my analysis were to show staffords usage of his starting TE. It's low. Throw is the lack of tools pettigrew has outside of blocking an I don't see him as a top 12 TE. My buddy thinks he's top 6.

I believe that stafford being healthy hurts pettigrew. Last year pettigrew saw lots of check downs from his much inferior backup QBs.

Maybe I'm reading into this too much. I guess that's the part I love about FF.

I think pettigrew has 50 receptions for 550ish yards and 4-5 TDs.

Boring numbers. I also think that week 3 will be the game of the year for him.

_________________
16 Team PPR - IDP

QB - Brees
RB - McK
RB/WR - Oliver/Hillman (?)
WR - Steve Smith
WR - KBenj
WR/TE - Reed/Holmes (?)
TE - Kelce

Bench: Josh Gordon, Crowell, Hunter


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PostPosted: Fri 09.30.2011, 10:04 
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Great White Shark
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cowanj2005 wrote:
I don't think pettigrew is that talented. Other than blocking he's very average at best. Last week was an abberation. It's never happened before. That's what career games are.


That's only his career game until the next time. I wouldn't be comfortable saying it can't happen again just because it never happened before last Sunday. I think it's much too early in his career to proclaim that he's reached his peak and will never perform like that again.



cowanj2005 wrote:
He's not really a red zone threat. He's Slow. And he's not athletic. The only reason he was used last week as much as he was is that the lions couldn't establish a running attack. Stafford prefers the receivers. It's his career pattern. Some guys love the TEs. Some don't as much. In my 16 team league there is no way I would want to be stuck starting him.


I would agree with the bolded, in fact, I think I posted similar sentiments above :). Stafford does seem to prefer throwing to his wideouts, and when he's got Calvin, the emerging Young, and the less sexy but still effective Burleson to throw to, why wouldn't he? But I don't think there's any reason to suggest that the conditions present in the game against the Vikings aren't going to be repeated at any stage this season. They will have to play other teams that can stuff the run and/or get after the QB, which will lead to Pettigrew seeing heavy usage as the safety valve again. Just in their division, they play the Vikes again, Bears twice and Packers twice. There's 5 games already, without even looking at the rest of their schedule, where Pettigrew could be big again, due to the Lions' other options being shut down or Stafford being rushed.


cowanj2005 wrote:
Anyways the numbers in my analysis were to show staffords usage of his starting TE. It's low. Throw is the lack of tools pettigrew has outside of blocking an I don't see him as a top 12 TE. My buddy thinks he's top 6.

I believe that stafford being healthy hurts pettigrew. Last year pettigrew saw lots of check downs from his much inferior backup QBs.


Maybe. In the sense that Stafford will not be forced to check down through lack of talent, only when the defense forces him to. But as we saw at the weekend, that's not to say he will never be forced to check down.

cowanj2005 wrote:
Maybe I'm reading into this too much. I guess that's the part I love about FF.

I think pettigrew has 50 receptions for 550ish yards and 4-5 TDs.

Boring numbers. I also think that week 3 will be the game of the year for him.



Yeah, you and me both :lol:. Not unreasonable projections, I might give him a slight bump in receptions and yards. I think he can get closer to the 70-700-5 range. I'd put him in the top 12 but I'd agree that he won't be top 6 by the end of the season.


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