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 Post subject: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 12.28.2011, 08:47 
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Leopard Shark

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I figured I would post this before everyone signs off after the regular season. So I need to pick 3 keepers in a 5 reception = 3 points type ppr league. I have included the round I would give up to keep the player.

Cam - Round 15
Mendy - Round 5
R Mathews - Round 3
Forte - Round 1
D Thomas - Round 5
J Starks - Round 14
Maclin - Round 4
TB Mike Williams - Round 11
VJax - Round 12
Graham - Round 7

I have a couple more players but they aren't good enough to be considered keepers. My current thoughts are Cam, Forte, and Mathews but I am having a tough time dropping VJax for a 12th round pick and Graham for a 7th round pick. I got extremely lucky with getting Cam off the WW in week 1 but I am afraid of a Vick type situation next year with a year of film for defenses to study.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 12.28.2011, 12:40 
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How many teams are in the league? That will help set the value of each round. Also, do you know what slot you'll be drafting from at all? Forte for a first round pick sounds good if you pick last out of 12+ teams, not so hot if you pick 3rd. Barring that info, I think you have to keep Cam at that value. I really like Mathews for a 3rd - my only concern is if Norv Turner is out, what type of offense will the new coach want to run? A new HC would also impact a VJax, although who knows if he'll be playing in SD next year or not. Rumor mill also says the GM in SD could be on the way out, and that would change how the team negotiates with players - so that might be a good sign for VJax staying.

I think I lean away from keeping Forte - getting him for a first round pick isn't a steal of a value, whereas I do think there is good value in Cam, Mathews, VJax, and Graham. Again, Cam is a no brainer keeper at that price tag. And I really want to find a way to keep Graham. In a league that counts TEs as just another WR, I think Graham would be a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. And as much as I like Mathews, his value doesn't seem quite as strong to me as VJax (if he's with the Chargers). So, I'd go Cam, VJax and Graham. That gives you a QB, TE, and WR all at around a 3-4th round value, while paying a 7th, 12th, and 15th round pick. You could then spend your first 3 rounds picking up RBs and a WR, 4th round on a flex player, and could use your 5th round pick to grab your first true backup.

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10 team ppr keeper/cap league
QB: Stafford, Cutler
RB: Foster, Rice, Sproles, Jacquizz, Tate, Wilson
WR: Green, Austin, Decker, Colston, Ogletree
TE: Graham
K: Gostkowski
Def: Green Bay


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 12.28.2011, 12:51 
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Thanks for the well thought out reply. It is a 10 man league and I am slated to have the 4th pick next year. The keeper rules work out to you keep a player at the round you picked them at the first kept year, and they move up 3 picks every kept year after the initial keep. TE's and QB's fly off the board rather quickly in this league so Cam at 15 is almost a definite keeper for me. We have a flex spot, but TE can't be thrown in there so Graham can only be used at one slot. I only see Grahams role increasing going into his 3rd year next year so I am having a tough time letting him go for the 7th pick. Finley, Gates, Witten, and Clark were all gone by the end of the 5th round in last years draft so Graham at 7 seems great.

I am up in the air on VJax until I see what happens with his contract, and even then I am afraid of him getting paid and then turning into a bum and me regretting keeping someone that is still playing for that money and fame. I am leaning toward a RB for the final spot and like Mathews at 3 and then just load up on RB and WR until round 8.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Thu 12.29.2011, 01:56 
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Definitely keep Newton and Graham - MAD VALUE!!!

As for your third, I would say Mendy. Just read that SD might lose 3 lineman in the offseason - Hardwick and Dielman considering retirement, McNeil might be forced to with injury. If they don't, and SD hires Cowher, perhaps Matthews???

Can you help me out:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=283804

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 01.04.2012, 18:17 
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Cam, Forte, and Graham.

Thats a uber solid foundation

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QB- Wilson, Dalton
HB- Bradshaw, Mendy, Redman, D. Richardson, Lamar Miller (Taxi Squad), Daniel thomas
Wr- Nicks, Marshall, Jennings, D. Moore, Hester, Cooper
Te- Jared Cook, gresham
Idp- Lawerence Timmons
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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 03.14.2012, 08:55 
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So with Marshall going to the Bears and VJax going to TB what are peoples thoughts on keepers? I think Marshall is only going to help Forte out but I think I might be able to pick him back up by the 5th pick but I am not positive. I guess it is probably best to wait and see what happens to Tolbert, but having Mathews, Newton, and Graham as my keepers with me being able to pick up players in round 1 and 2 and then 4-6 without having to worry about a QB until later makes the most sense.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Wed 03.14.2012, 11:03 
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Marshall being reunited with Cutler and the OC from their Denver days has some amazing potential. Have to see how this bar fight situation turns out for Brandon - might be a good buy low candidate.

VJAX... ugh. His QB play has to be worse - Philip Rivers is better than Josh Freeman. But that could still be a nice situation. And with your pricetag on VJax being better than the price on M. Williams, I'd be sorely tempted to take the chance on VJax.

A couple of other points to consider - there's still more free agency to get through, plus the actual NFL draft. Another question - what is the likelihood of the other top RBs being kept? Will Arian, McCoy, and Ray be draftable? I wouldn't expect you to get them with the #4 pick overall, but it helps gauge who would be available. Even with the mess in San Diego, keeping Ryan Mathews for a 3rd, and possibly picking up Forte in the first, combined with Cam, and Graham, would be a heckuva team.

VJax is a big question mark, as is Ryan Mathews. I think you'd have an easier time replacing VJax though, so for right now, I'd lean Ryan Mathews (this is assuming Tolbert leaves in FA).

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10 team ppr keeper/cap league
QB: Stafford, Cutler
RB: Foster, Rice, Sproles, Jacquizz, Tate, Wilson
WR: Green, Austin, Decker, Colston, Ogletree
TE: Graham
K: Gostkowski
Def: Green Bay


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Thu 03.15.2012, 07:38 
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I would go with Cam, Forte, and VJax. Solid start and you have alot of early picks left.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Thu 03.15.2012, 07:46 
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Cam and Graham, definitely. I'm leaning Mathews for the 3rd, but don't trust him to stay healthy. I think you need to get an idea of who you'd be looking at 1.4 to make up your mind.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Thu 03.15.2012, 14:28 
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Great White Shark
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OarChambo wrote:
Cam and Graham, definitely. I'm leaning Mathews for the 3rd, but don't trust him to stay healthy. I think you need to get an idea of who you'd be looking at 1.4 to make up your mind.


Agree about Cam and Graham.

Looking at your options in rounds 1 and 2 would help decide between Forte/Mathews/VJax, though VJax cost is very tempting.


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Fri 03.16.2012, 10:53 
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Agree with Cam and Graham too. For the third it may be best to wait till after the NFL draft. VJax is tempting though


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Sun 03.18.2012, 08:55 
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malykii wrote:
I figured I would post this before everyone signs off after the regular season. So I need to pick 3 keepers in a 5 reception = 3 points type ppr league. I have included the round I would give up to keep the player.

Cam - Round 15
Mendy - Round 5
R Mathews - Round 3
Forte - Round 1
D Thomas - Round 5
J Starks - Round 14
Maclin - Round 4
TB Mike Williams - Round 11
VJax - Round 12
Graham - Round 7

I have a couple more players but they aren't good enough to be considered keepers. My current thoughts are Cam, Forte, and Mathews but I am having a tough time dropping VJax for a 12th round pick and Graham for a 7th round pick. I got extremely lucky with getting Cam off the WW in week 1 but I am afraid of a Vick type situation next year with a year of film for defenses to study.

Leave a link to your question if want my opinion on your question.

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And listen to no prophet guiding them.
None but the fools believe in oracles,
Forsaking their own judgment. Those who know,
Know that such men can only come to grief." - Euripides, 414 BC


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Sun 03.18.2012, 08:56 
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In case you can't see it, I bolded Cam, Grahaam and V-Jax. That would let you pick anyone you wanted in rounds 1-6.



:guns:

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And listen to no prophet guiding them.
None but the fools believe in oracles,
Forsaking their own judgment. Those who know,
Know that such men can only come to grief." - Euripides, 414 BC


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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Mon 03.19.2012, 12:56 
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So, this whole Manning thing throws a wrench in things a bit. I also have Dem. Thomas for a round 16 pick which I wasn't considering keeping with Tebow at the helm but now with Manning apparently taking over at QB I feel I almost have to consider him as well based off the value of only giving up a round 16 pick. Cam and Graham are obviously the consensus first two picks but what are peoples thoughts of D. Thomas for a 16th pick. The D. Thomas at round 5 was Daniel Thomas and not Dem. Thomas.

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 Post subject: Re: Pick 3 Keepers
PostPosted: Mon 03.19.2012, 13:09 
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malykii wrote:
So, this whole Manning thing throws a wrench in things a bit. I also have Dem. Thomas for a round 16 pick which I wasn't considering keeping with Tebow at the helm but now with Manning apparently taking over at QB I feel I almost have to consider him as well based off the value of only giving up a round 16 pick. Cam and Graham are obviously the consensus first two picks but what are peoples thoughts of D. Thomas for a 16th pick. The D. Thomas at round 5 was Daniel Thomas and not Dem. Thomas.

Then he is your last keeper with Graham and Cam. No brainer.

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