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At this point Tannehill is a top 10 pick. New question is if Brock Osweiler goes in the first round.

Me thinks yes.

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3-4 round, imo.

I'm curious how much last year's trend of reaching for QB's continues. Wouldn't be surprised to see Weeden taken at the tail end of the 1st or very early 2nd.

Depends whether or not the Browns take Tannehill and leave Miami hanging.


I mean, the current candidates for needing a QB, backup or otherwise, are:
Colts
Redskins
Browns
Dolphins
Chiefs
Buccaneers (they really need a vet to mentor Freeman)

The 1st 4 are 1st/2nd round candidates, the last few are 2nd/3rd/4th round QB candidates.


The rest of the teams are pretty well invested in their QBs, so they wouldn't be interested in a QB beyond a 2nd or 3rd string. That's 4th+ round territory. I don't believe teams like the Cardinals who are questionable at QB, but invested, have the foresight to get involved in a run on QBs.


So, no, I don't think there's a perfect storm for a run on QBs this year.

I agree. But since Ponder and Locker went 1st. At this point you can rule out ( provided the browns take tanne ) even the Jets, Phins , 9er's , hawks, cards, bills, ect. Maybe not with there slotted pick but trading up pick. I doubt it gets QB insane again but you never know. Tanne should not be thought of as a 1st round QB top 15. But he is.

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True.

3 teams making mistakes over valuing QB's last year doesn't mean it is now the right thing for others to do it too. Wouldn't surprise me if it happens, but it just means there are even more dumb teams in the league for the talent rich to take advantage of.

I like Osweiler as a day 3 flier (more than Weeden, Cousins, etc.), but anytime before then is just plain dumb.

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Don't know how much of this is a predraft smokescreen:

I think Cassell's gonna have a pretty good year with Daboll as the OC, the return of Charles, and the addition of Hillis.

x2

WAH Charles, I think the Chiefs are going to be dangerous.

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IMO, Tannehill doesn't last past 8.

Philbin, Ireland and crew were all in attendence at pro-day. Supposedly Sherman is on record for believing in Tannehill.

Beyond that, we haven't heard a peep from anyone in Miami. Which means they don't want to tip their hand. To say yes or no would probably trigger someone to react irrationally and trade past them. Above all else, I believe they understand they have more rebuilding to do than just QB, which is why they haven't traded up (means giving up a next years #1).


The question is valid as to whether Osweiler or Weeden sneak into the 1st.

That answer really depends how secure KC is in Cassel. If they're sincere about wanting a #2 "purely for competition", then they'll wait til the 2nd and get Weeden/Osweiler. Otherwise, drafting a QB in the 1st round pretty much makes you obligated to start him, at some point. Either this year, or the next year. You don't go around drafting QBs in the 1st to throw them away. If KC really wants Tannehill, they'll draft-day trade up with STL or JAX.


Otherwise Weeden would probably go to the Browns in the #36 pick or possibly even the #22. With Osweiler to KC in the 2nd. I think the Browns interest in Tannehill is chaff, it's not Holmgren's style to draft a 1st round QB.

I don't see the Fins passing on Tannehill either, but if they do the Chiefs picking him wouldn't shock me. They've been sniffing around QB's all off season. Pioli strikes me as the type to be too stubborn for his own good and would continue to throw Cassel out there even though he just isn't the guy, but they've spent a lot of time and energy on the QB position for it to all be a smoke screen. I think at the end of the day they're at least looking at somebody. Hopefully it's Weeden. I'm not worried about the Browns taking Tannehill too early, but I am worried we'll take Weeden too early.

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It seems QBs are more popular, or valuable, in the draft due to new rookie salary cap.

All the talk is that QB is a key, if not the key position, on the team.

Locker, 2011 #8 pick, signed a $12.4m contract over four years. This compared to Bradford's six year, $78m with $50m guaranteed just a couple of years earlier.

If my team needs a QB, I may very well over reach and draft a QB a half a round, or even a whole round, early. The reward seems to out weigh the risks, when the cost is taken into account.

I can see Tannehill going 5-10. I can also see Weeden and Osweiler going earlier than expected.

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12 Team Standard PPR except QB get 5pts-TD,1pt-30yds
*-starter
QB: Vick*
RB: McCoy*; Charles*; Bradshaw; D. Martin*
WR: Cruz*; Julio*; Blackmon ; Cobb
TE: Pettigrew*
K: Janik*
DEF: Sea; Cin*
IDP: Dqwell*

Well, if they're going to be choosy, they have to take him early. #37 minimum.

As you said, too many other teams need a back-up plan. Bills, Chiefs, Broncos, Cardinals, Ravens. If the right guy fell far enough, any one of them would snatch them up.

I'm not saying all of them would take 2nd, or even 3rd, round QBs, but each has their magical price tag.

Below are the QB's drafted in rounds 2 and 3 before the rookie wage scale, by this logic and that practiced last year these guys should either be mid 1st rounders (the guys taken in round 2) or 2nd rounders (the guys drafted in round 3)

2010
Clausen
Colt

2009
Pat White

2008
Brohm
Henne
O'Connell

2007
Kolb
Beck
Stanton
Edwards

2006
Clemens
Tarvaris
Whitehurst
Croyle

Just because some teams are doing doesn't make it the right thing to do.

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