emjones2001 wrote:rugger48 wrote:emjones2001 wrote:rugger48 wrote:emjones2001 wrote:The thing about finding the 'elite' QB: none of the past Super Bowl winning teams got their 'elite' QB when they were experiencing sustained losing (4+ yrs). In most every case they only had 2-3 consecutive losing seasons when they got their QB: basically the team was established and the QB was pretty much the final piece.
so what, the idea behind finding an elite qb is opportunity and need. If cleveland is sitting in the one of the top 2 spots, there taking a qb and it would be the right thing to do, period. I didnt read the article, but if it starting it in 1999 for your argument then something is wrong. What you want to look at is what i looks like from 2007 on thats when the rules started really changing and the game was moving to more of a qb\pass dominate league. Part of the reason isnt just based on success, the rules are significantly in favor of the pass game. If they changed the rules so that a rb has to get 1 yard past the line of scrimmage before the defense can touch him, what do you think the draft will look like this year? Now add in the rookie salary cap, guess what, qbs go fast and early.
In other words move on and join us in 2012 wont you.
No data supports picking a QB in the first round before you have at least a .500 team (specifically no more than 3 consecutive losing seasons). The only thing that the 1st rnd QBs taken from '07 on give their team is hope. Not one of the top QBs taken since '07 has even gotten past the 1st round except for Flacco and Ryan, both of whom are on teams where the QB was one of the last pieces instead of the first piece. While I agree that the league "favors" the passing game, the only thing that has translated to is below average teams jumping at QBs but are still no closer to the Super Bowl than teams without one. Draft a QB in the 1st round and you are locked into that pick for at least 3 years while they "develop" and even then it may not work. It makes much more sense to have your team solidly in place before you take that risk because having the pieces around the QB will help to shorten that "developmental window".
How's that for 2012? Did I join?
I said this before and Ill say this again, the next 10 years 8 out of the next 10 superbowls will be won by pass dominate teams, most of those teams the qb will probably 1st rounder qbs or elite qbs. In 3-4 years we will have this convo again, and we will see how washington,indy, detroit and carolina look then. Keep looking at stats, the steelers didnt win a superbowl til they drafted roethlisberger(15 years for cowher to win a sb), giants hadnt won in awhile til they drafted eli, saints were nothing til they got brees(yes I know 2nd round), indy we know that story. Big hole in all this is brady, but I doubt someone comes along like him in our lifetime.
Keep hoping that cleveland keeps trying to build there team from the right spots, but when players rookie contracts come up and those players either leave for greener pastures or more money all they have to do is go right back to the ticket booth and buy another 5 years on the merry go round. Maybe sometime in the next 10 years you might find yourself a trent dilfer or brad johnson, or they can draft richardson and be the same teams the jags or rams have been for the past 5 years.
and again if cleveland were in the first 2 spots in the draft they should and would take a qb, why because its the right thing to do. Even the experts agree. Cleveland has some decent pieces in place thomas,jackson,haden.How's that for 2012? Did I join
To answer your question, no. Thanks for playing.
Look at it this way, will Wash, Indy, Detroit, and Carolina win in the same window as the QBs you mentioned (Eli, Ben, Drew)? All of them are behind Ben, who did it in under 2 (I think we can safely say that none of the above teams are less than 2 years away). Eli and Brees took 3 years and maybe Detroit may be the closest to achieving that, which is optimistic.
In an era where a "franchise" QB comes out every year, you can shorten your road to the SB by getting the pieces first, make yourself a .500 or better team, and then go into the draft one year and get a QB. Your team is the best example of this and I can't understand how you can't see it...
because I told before, your simple just wrong, there is more to it than that, you need more than 1st and 2nd rouders to make your team you need to find plauers every where make the ones on the depth chart work. Players have to have a reason to stay, and if they think a qb is part of the formula and the team they are on doesnt have one some of them eventually leave and then your stuck trying to find more peices to the eqaution.
your road to the SB by getting the pieces first, make yourself a .500 or better team, and then go into the draft one year and get a QB
No its not because, teams have to still find the pieces than try to look for a qb that happens to be one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. This is part of the reason that cleveland has been doing the same thing for years.
Look at it this way, when teams like the 4 I mentioned above keep winning and the browns are still trying to find that magical mix of players that will get them to the promised land you will understand what Im saying. The browns have been doing what your saying for years, its time to try something new. You never know you could end up being the next teams led by a no name qb, but those team are quickly forgotten.