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PostPosted: Fri 06.22.2012, 07:57 
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I admit, I don't follow this as much as I should. So I thought I would get a topic started on it and see what the smarter people on the boards thoughts are on the subject. The thought came from last year when someone on here posted about the OC change in Carolina and how that would have an effect on S. Smiths stats. He ended up being a steal for me as my 3rd WR.

What are folks thoughts on OC changes this year?


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PostPosted: Fri 06.22.2012, 11:21 
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The Bears offense should be much better under Tice than Martz....at the very least Cutler and the WR should have a better season since they'll call plays that will give Jay a better chance to be successful.


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PostPosted: Fri 06.22.2012, 11:56 
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Denver should be much better under Peyton Manning.


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PostPosted: Fri 06.22.2012, 11:58 
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SonOfDad wrote:
Denver should be much better under Peyton Manning.


x2

Probably the biggest OC change this year

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PostPosted: Sun 06.24.2012, 07:36 
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I view analyzing OC changes as a huge advantage over others as it takes a significant amount of time to analyze. But, it can be worth it. For example, as you stated, Chudzinski did a great job with Cam Newton last year (he is the guy who turned Derek Anderson into a pro bowl QB...he then left and Anderson tanked; by the way, Anderson is now a backup in Carolina).

There are so many changes this year that I will highlight a few. Keep in mind that it is common for the new HC to bring his old QB Coach along with him as his new OC, as they tend to keep consistency in their philosophy that way:

1- Mularkey/Bratkowski from ATL to JAC
Mularkey hired to develop Gabbert based on what he did with Matt Ryan. JAC demonstrated their commitment by drafting Blackmon and over-paying for Laurent Robinson, which will enable them to move Mike Thomas into the slot. Plus you have a quality TE in Marcedes Lewis who last year was troubled with child custody issues, but was a pro bowler the year before.

2- Allen/Knapp from HOU to OAK
Changing to zone blocking scheme, tend to be run heavy

3- Brian DaBoll from MIA to KC
Seems to be run-centric. Turned Reggie Bush into a stud RB last year, and Peyton Hillis into a stud the year before that. KC then went out and got Hillis as a FA. With a former DC as HC, and DaBoll, think maybe Hillis and Jamaal Charles might run some!

4- Dirk Koetter to ATL
Is expected to turn ATL into a hurry-up style, with less emphasis on running. This likely upgrades Matt Ryan, and possibly Jaquizz Rodgers.

5- Josh McDaniel from STL to NE
This one will be very interesting. McDaniel historically not TE-friendly but is returning to the most TE-centric offense in the league. He loves Brandon Lloyd, and vice versa, so Lloyd should have a good year. It would be expected for Gronk to regress a little off of last year's performance anyway, but I wonder how much "blame" will be on McDaniel?

6- Todd Haley from ARI to PIT
There is an underlying story with Arians "retiring" then going to Indy, and Haley coming to PIT - but I have no clue what it is. PIT claims to want to be more run centric, but Haley's background with Kurt Warner emphasized passing, and PIT arguably has the most prolific WR set in the game with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders.

7- Brad Childress to CLEV
Brad was a horrible HC, but he was an incredible OC in Philly (although how much of that was him vs. Andy Reid)? CLEV got him a stud RB, reached for a new QB, but did not seem to address the need at WR?

8- Bruce Arians from PIT to IND
I love that Pagano, a former DC, grabbed Arians. I'm hoping that Pagano saw the problems in BAL of all defense with little offense. Arians is credited with the development of Peyton Manning and Big Ben, and he loves the two TE set (back from his early Indy days, long before NE). IND demonstrated their commitment by drafting two TE in the first two rounds. I am also intrigued with them trading up in the 3rd to draft TY Hilton. Everyone says he will be a good slot receiver, but I'm wondering if Arians sees a little Antonio Brown in TY (can you guess who my sleeper is in dynasty)?

9- Philbin/Mike Sherman from GB/Texas A&M to MIA
Coach-wise, they should develop a great offense based on their pedigree. But I just don't see the talent at WR, and I wonder if they drafted Tannehill out of desperation. Drafting Lamar Miller confuses me, and they are talking about using Reggie Bush split out more (sounds a lot like his former role in NO). I would be scared to expect Bush to repeat last year based on the OC change/philosophy. I'm wondering if Daaniel Thomas might not be a decent late round flier?

10- Sparano from HC MIA to OC NYJ
Rex wants to get back to "ground-and-pound." I'm not a believer in Sanchez or Shonn Greene, and the Tebow effect will be interesting. Stephen Hill...probably good for some TD receptions (from Tebow off the run fake!!)

11- OC Tice/QB Coach Jeremy Bates
Tice has always had a good running game, and Bates was the QB Coach in Denver when Cutler had his pro bowl years. Management demonstrated commitment by trading for Brandon Marshall and drafting Alshon Jeffery. I think Cutler and both WRs are good values this year.

12- Shottenheimer from NYJ to STL
Jeff Fisher is defense/running game. Shottenheimer is run-heavy, and his major credit is in developing Sanchez and Shonn Greene (insert sarcasm sign here). I loved Bradford returning to form this year until they hired Shottenheimer. They did draft WRs, so we shall see.

Hope this quick summary helps...


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PostPosted: Sun 06.24.2012, 12:52 
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airek wrote:
I view analyzing OC changes as a huge advantage over others as it takes a significant amount of time to analyze. But, it can be worth it. For example, as you stated, Chudzinski did a great job with Cam Newton last year (he is the guy who turned Derek Anderson into a pro bowl QB...he then left and Anderson tanked; by the way, Anderson is now a backup in Carolina).

There are so many changes this year that I will highlight a few. Keep in mind that it is common for the new HC to bring his old QB Coach along with him as his new OC, as they tend to keep consistency in their philosophy that way:

1- Mularkey/Bratkowski from ATL to JAC
Mularkey hired to develop Gabbert based on what he did with Matt Ryan. JAC demonstrated their commitment by drafting Blackmon and over-paying for Laurent Robinson, which will enable them to move Mike Thomas into the slot. Plus you have a quality TE in Marcedes Lewis who last year was troubled with child custody issues, but was a pro bowler the year before.

2- Allen/Knapp from HOU to OAK
Changing to zone blocking scheme, tend to be run heavy

3- Brian DaBoll from MIA to KC
Seems to be run-centric. Turned Reggie Bush into a stud RB last year, and Peyton Hillis into a stud the year before that. KC then went out and got Hillis as a FA. With a former DC as HC, and DaBoll, think maybe Hillis and Jamaal Charles might run some!

4- Dirk Koetter to ATL
Is expected to turn ATL into a hurry-up style, with less emphasis on running. This likely upgrades Matt Ryan, and possibly Jaquizz Rodgers.

5- Josh McDaniel from STL to NE
This one will be very interesting. McDaniel historically not TE-friendly but is returning to the most TE-centric offense in the league. He loves Brandon Lloyd, and vice versa, so Lloyd should have a good year. It would be expected for Gronk to regress a little off of last year's performance anyway, but I wonder how much "blame" will be on McDaniel?

6- Todd Haley from ARI to PIT
There is an underlying story with Arians "retiring" then going to Indy, and Haley coming to PIT - but I have no clue what it is. PIT claims to want to be more run centric, but Haley's background with Kurt Warner emphasized passing, and PIT arguably has the most prolific WR set in the game with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders.

7- Brad Childress to CLEV
Brad was a horrible HC, but he was an incredible OC in Philly (although how much of that was him vs. Andy Reid)? CLEV got him a stud RB, reached for a new QB, but did not seem to address the need at WR?

8- Bruce Arians from PIT to IND
I love that Pagano, a former DC, grabbed Arians. I'm hoping that Pagano saw the problems in BAL of all defense with little offense. Arians is credited with the development of Peyton Manning and Big Ben, and he loves the two TE set (back from his early Indy days, long before NE). IND demonstrated their commitment by drafting two TE in the first two rounds. I am also intrigued with them trading up in the 3rd to draft TY Hilton. Everyone says he will be a good slot receiver, but I'm wondering if Arians sees a little Antonio Brown in TY (can you guess who my sleeper is in dynasty)?

9- Philbin/Mike Sherman from GB/Texas A&M to MIA
Coach-wise, they should develop a great offense based on their pedigree. But I just don't see the talent at WR, and I wonder if they drafted Tannehill out of desperation. Drafting Lamar Miller confuses me, and they are talking about using Reggie Bush split out more (sounds a lot like his former role in NO). I would be scared to expect Bush to repeat last year based on the OC change/philosophy. I'm wondering if Daaniel Thomas might not be a decent late round flier?

10- Sparano from HC MIA to OC NYJ
Rex wants to get back to "ground-and-pound." I'm not a believer in Sanchez or Shonn Greene, and the Tebow effect will be interesting. Stephen Hill...probably good for some TD receptions (from Tebow off the run fake!!)

11- OC Tice/QB Coach Jeremy Bates
Tice has always had a good running game, and Bates was the QB Coach in Denver when Cutler had his pro bowl years. Management demonstrated commitment by trading for Brandon Marshall and drafting Alshon Jeffery. I think Cutler and both WRs are good values this year.

12- Shottenheimer from NYJ to STL
Jeff Fisher is defense/running game. Shottenheimer is run-heavy, and his major credit is in developing Sanchez and Shonn Greene (insert sarcasm sign here). I loved Bradford returning to form this year until they hired Shottenheimer. They did draft WRs, so we shall see.

Hope this quick summary helps...


Nice job

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PostPosted: Sun 06.24.2012, 13:51 
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endzoneview wrote:
airek wrote:
I view analyzing OC changes as a huge advantage over others as it takes a significant amount of time to analyze. But, it can be worth it. For example, as you stated, Chudzinski did a great job with Cam Newton last year (he is the guy who turned Derek Anderson into a pro bowl QB...he then left and Anderson tanked; by the way, Anderson is now a backup in Carolina).

There are so many changes this year that I will highlight a few. Keep in mind that it is common for the new HC to bring his old QB Coach along with him as his new OC, as they tend to keep consistency in their philosophy that way:

1- Mularkey/Bratkowski from ATL to JAC
Mularkey hired to develop Gabbert based on what he did with Matt Ryan. JAC demonstrated their commitment by drafting Blackmon and over-paying for Laurent Robinson, which will enable them to move Mike Thomas into the slot. Plus you have a quality TE in Marcedes Lewis who last year was troubled with child custody issues, but was a pro bowler the year before.

2- Allen/Knapp from HOU to OAK
Changing to zone blocking scheme, tend to be run heavy

3- Brian DaBoll from MIA to KC
Seems to be run-centric. Turned Reggie Bush into a stud RB last year, and Peyton Hillis into a stud the year before that. KC then went out and got Hillis as a FA. With a former DC as HC, and DaBoll, think maybe Hillis and Jamaal Charles might run some!

4- Dirk Koetter to ATL
Is expected to turn ATL into a hurry-up style, with less emphasis on running. This likely upgrades Matt Ryan, and possibly Jaquizz Rodgers.

5- Josh McDaniel from STL to NE
This one will be very interesting. McDaniel historically not TE-friendly but is returning to the most TE-centric offense in the league. He loves Brandon Lloyd, and vice versa, so Lloyd should have a good year. It would be expected for Gronk to regress a little off of last year's performance anyway, but I wonder how much "blame" will be on McDaniel?

6- Todd Haley from ARI to PIT
There is an underlying story with Arians "retiring" then going to Indy, and Haley coming to PIT - but I have no clue what it is. PIT claims to want to be more run centric, but Haley's background with Kurt Warner emphasized passing, and PIT arguably has the most prolific WR set in the game with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders.

7- Brad Childress to CLEV
Brad was a horrible HC, but he was an incredible OC in Philly (although how much of that was him vs. Andy Reid)? CLEV got him a stud RB, reached for a new QB, but did not seem to address the need at WR?

8- Bruce Arians from PIT to IND
I love that Pagano, a former DC, grabbed Arians. I'm hoping that Pagano saw the problems in BAL of all defense with little offense. Arians is credited with the development of Peyton Manning and Big Ben, and he loves the two TE set (back from his early Indy days, long before NE). IND demonstrated their commitment by drafting two TE in the first two rounds. I am also intrigued with them trading up in the 3rd to draft TY Hilton. Everyone says he will be a good slot receiver, but I'm wondering if Arians sees a little Antonio Brown in TY (can you guess who my sleeper is in dynasty)?

9- Philbin/Mike Sherman from GB/Texas A&M to MIA
Coach-wise, they should develop a great offense based on their pedigree. But I just don't see the talent at WR, and I wonder if they drafted Tannehill out of desperation. Drafting Lamar Miller confuses me, and they are talking about using Reggie Bush split out more (sounds a lot like his former role in NO). I would be scared to expect Bush to repeat last year based on the OC change/philosophy. I'm wondering if Daaniel Thomas might not be a decent late round flier?

10- Sparano from HC MIA to OC NYJ
Rex wants to get back to "ground-and-pound." I'm not a believer in Sanchez or Shonn Greene, and the Tebow effect will be interesting. Stephen Hill...probably good for some TD receptions (from Tebow off the run fake!!)

11- OC Tice/QB Coach Jeremy Bates
Tice has always had a good running game, and Bates was the QB Coach in Denver when Cutler had his pro bowl years. Management demonstrated commitment by trading for Brandon Marshall and drafting Alshon Jeffery. I think Cutler and both WRs are good values this year.

12- Shottenheimer from NYJ to STL
Jeff Fisher is defense/running game. Shottenheimer is run-heavy, and his major credit is in developing Sanchez and Shonn Greene (insert sarcasm sign here). I loved Bradford returning to form this year until they hired Shottenheimer. They did draft WRs, so we shall see.

Hope this quick summary helps...


Nice job


x2. If I was you I'd pad that out a little and submit it to the main site as an article.


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PostPosted: Mon 06.25.2012, 08:21 
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KevD wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
airek wrote:
I view analyzing OC changes as a huge advantage over others as it takes a significant amount of time to analyze. But, it can be worth it. For example, as you stated, Chudzinski did a great job with Cam Newton last year (he is the guy who turned Derek Anderson into a pro bowl QB...he then left and Anderson tanked; by the way, Anderson is now a backup in Carolina).

There are so many changes this year that I will highlight a few. Keep in mind that it is common for the new HC to bring his old QB Coach along with him as his new OC, as they tend to keep consistency in their philosophy that way:

1- Mularkey/Bratkowski from ATL to JAC
Mularkey hired to develop Gabbert based on what he did with Matt Ryan. JAC demonstrated their commitment by drafting Blackmon and over-paying for Laurent Robinson, which will enable them to move Mike Thomas into the slot. Plus you have a quality TE in Marcedes Lewis who last year was troubled with child custody issues, but was a pro bowler the year before.

2- Allen/Knapp from HOU to OAK
Changing to zone blocking scheme, tend to be run heavy

3- Brian DaBoll from MIA to KC
Seems to be run-centric. Turned Reggie Bush into a stud RB last year, and Peyton Hillis into a stud the year before that. KC then went out and got Hillis as a FA. With a former DC as HC, and DaBoll, think maybe Hillis and Jamaal Charles might run some!

4- Dirk Koetter to ATL
Is expected to turn ATL into a hurry-up style, with less emphasis on running. This likely upgrades Matt Ryan, and possibly Jaquizz Rodgers.

5- Josh McDaniel from STL to NE
This one will be very interesting. McDaniel historically not TE-friendly but is returning to the most TE-centric offense in the league. He loves Brandon Lloyd, and vice versa, so Lloyd should have a good year. It would be expected for Gronk to regress a little off of last year's performance anyway, but I wonder how much "blame" will be on McDaniel?

6- Todd Haley from ARI to PIT
There is an underlying story with Arians "retiring" then going to Indy, and Haley coming to PIT - but I have no clue what it is. PIT claims to want to be more run centric, but Haley's background with Kurt Warner emphasized passing, and PIT arguably has the most prolific WR set in the game with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders.

7- Brad Childress to CLEV
Brad was a horrible HC, but he was an incredible OC in Philly (although how much of that was him vs. Andy Reid)? CLEV got him a stud RB, reached for a new QB, but did not seem to address the need at WR?

8- Bruce Arians from PIT to IND
I love that Pagano, a former DC, grabbed Arians. I'm hoping that Pagano saw the problems in BAL of all defense with little offense. Arians is credited with the development of Peyton Manning and Big Ben, and he loves the two TE set (back from his early Indy days, long before NE). IND demonstrated their commitment by drafting two TE in the first two rounds. I am also intrigued with them trading up in the 3rd to draft TY Hilton. Everyone says he will be a good slot receiver, but I'm wondering if Arians sees a little Antonio Brown in TY (can you guess who my sleeper is in dynasty)?

9- Philbin/Mike Sherman from GB/Texas A&M to MIA
Coach-wise, they should develop a great offense based on their pedigree. But I just don't see the talent at WR, and I wonder if they drafted Tannehill out of desperation. Drafting Lamar Miller confuses me, and they are talking about using Reggie Bush split out more (sounds a lot like his former role in NO). I would be scared to expect Bush to repeat last year based on the OC change/philosophy. I'm wondering if Daaniel Thomas might not be a decent late round flier?

10- Sparano from HC MIA to OC NYJ
Rex wants to get back to "ground-and-pound." I'm not a believer in Sanchez or Shonn Greene, and the Tebow effect will be interesting. Stephen Hill...probably good for some TD receptions (from Tebow off the run fake!!)

11- OC Tice/QB Coach Jeremy Bates
Tice has always had a good running game, and Bates was the QB Coach in Denver when Cutler had his pro bowl years. Management demonstrated commitment by trading for Brandon Marshall and drafting Alshon Jeffery. I think Cutler and both WRs are good values this year.

12- Shottenheimer from NYJ to STL
Jeff Fisher is defense/running game. Shottenheimer is run-heavy, and his major credit is in developing Sanchez and Shonn Greene (insert sarcasm sign here). I loved Bradford returning to form this year until they hired Shottenheimer. They did draft WRs, so we shall see.

Hope this quick summary helps...


Nice job


x2. If I was you I'd pad that out a little and submit it to the main site as an article.


Yes, well done. And definately worthy of a main article.

Thanks


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PostPosted: Mon 06.25.2012, 09:27 
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Great points made all around. I hadn't thought about McDaniel and his potetial affect on the two TE's.


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PostPosted: Mon 06.25.2012, 11:32 
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I did a little historic research about this earlier this year. Over the past 5 years, new OC's results were all over the good/bad spectrum. With everything averaged together, it looks like a new OC would have no effect but I took the same data and looked at 2nd year OC results. I found that 2nd year OCs rank about 4 spots higher on average than their previous year.

My conclusion:

You shouldn't count on a new OC to improve an offense in his year. If you put stock in coaching relative to player stats, a 2nd year OC is a safer bet.

Maybe the extra year gives the new OC time to really install his playbook and also more time bring in players that fit the system.


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PostPosted: Mon 06.25.2012, 13:07 
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Z-Hawks wrote:
I did a little historic research about this earlier this year. Over the past 5 years, new OC's results were all over the good/bad spectrum. With everything averaged together, it looks like a new OC would have no effect but I took the same data and looked at 2nd year OC results. I found that 2nd year OCs rank about 4 spots higher on average than their previous year.

My conclusion:

You shouldn't count on a new OC to improve an offense in his year. If you put stock in coaching relative to player stats, a 2nd year OC is a safer bet.

Maybe the extra year gives the new OC time to really install his playbook and also more time bring in players that fit the system.


People are just counting on fantasy points from a few individuals. The offense as a whole doesn't need to be better.


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PostPosted: Mon 06.25.2012, 15:13 
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airek wrote:
I view analyzing OC changes as a huge advantage over others as it takes a significant amount of time to analyze.
...
Hope this quick summary helps...

You forgot to add Peyton Manning.

/obligatory joke


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PostPosted: Tue 06.26.2012, 08:19 
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SonOfDad wrote:
Z-Hawks wrote:
I did a little historic research about this earlier this year. Over the past 5 years, new OC's results were all over the good/bad spectrum. With everything averaged together, it looks like a new OC would have no effect but I took the same data and looked at 2nd year OC results. I found that 2nd year OCs rank about 4 spots higher on average than their previous year.

My conclusion:

You shouldn't count on a new OC to improve an offense in his year. If you put stock in coaching relative to player stats, a 2nd year OC is a safer bet.

Maybe the extra year gives the new OC time to really install his playbook and also more time bring in players that fit the system.


People are just counting on fantasy points from a few individuals. The offense as a whole doesn't need to be better.


I don't use coaching changes to look at players individually; for me, it's just one of several factors when predicting whether a team offense will be better or worse than the previous year. I feel like if you give it any more stock than that, you're bound to reach for someone on draft day. How many owners drafted a mediocre player because they thought Mike Martz would magically transform the offense into the "Greatest Show on Turf"?


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PostPosted: Tue 06.26.2012, 09:13 
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Z-Hawks wrote:
SonOfDad wrote:
Z-Hawks wrote:
I did a little historic research about this earlier this year. Over the past 5 years, new OC's results were all over the good/bad spectrum. With everything averaged together, it looks like a new OC would have no effect but I took the same data and looked at 2nd year OC results. I found that 2nd year OCs rank about 4 spots higher on average than their previous year.

My conclusion:

You shouldn't count on a new OC to improve an offense in his year. If you put stock in coaching relative to player stats, a 2nd year OC is a safer bet.

Maybe the extra year gives the new OC time to really install his playbook and also more time bring in players that fit the system.


People are just counting on fantasy points from a few individuals. The offense as a whole doesn't need to be better.


I don't use coaching changes to look at players individually; for me, it's just one of several factors when predicting whether a team offense will be better or worse than the previous year. I feel like if you give it any more stock than that, you're bound to reach for someone on draft day. How many owners drafted a mediocre player because they thought Mike Martz would magically transform the offense into the "Greatest Show on Turf"?


same logic applies to individual players. it's just one of several factors. change of scenery works like a coaching change as well.


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PostPosted: Thu 06.28.2012, 13:43 
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endzoneview wrote:
SonOfDad wrote:
Denver should be much better under Peyton Manning.


x2

Probably the biggest OC change this year



Image

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