Of course nobody or system can predict how players will produce.
ADP is a guide...most values are gotten from many mock draft sites.
It should be used to prevent reaching for players. And for guaging where runs might occur. As for your Gonzo and Caddy picks...they sound about right, maybe 1/2 rd early but that is where most of us drafted these players.
So What I want to Know is why does ADP really matter when its a crap shoot?
Well you can go into a draft with no clue as to where other owners might be taking a player...but I'd rather know. Ex. you mentioned S.Smith? I thought he'd have a great year if he stayed healthy, but his ADP wasn't till pick # 46......I would of taken him in the mid-late 3rd since I was so high on him.......I held off and got S.Jackson in the 3rd....and took Smith 4th (still early). That is what ADP can do for you. Knowledge is a terrible thing to waste.