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 Post subject: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 18:55 
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Tiger Shark

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Obviously a lot of people are looking to draft Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc. early in drafts this year. I have been thinking about waiting and picking up a tandem of Peyton Manning and RG III while loading up early on RB/WR and maybe even an early TE. Is anyone else using a strategy like this? What are your thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 19:46 
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you can't "load up"..it's just 1 pick...take the qb.


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 19:47 
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you can't "load up"..it's just 1 pick...take the qb.


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 21:06 
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I'll tell you I don't think that's a great decision. I think if you have a shot at a top points scorer (AR,Brady, Brees) you take him. RB's/WR's can be had in rds 2-7 and you really only need to hit on 1 or 2 of your 4 or 5 RB picks same goes for WR. I say take the chance at those positions and lock up an elite passer if you have the chance.

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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 21:13 
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This is basically covered here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=285942

So in an effort to not re-read the same opinions again, lets just skip ahead and say "it depends on your league scoring"

6 pt pass TD leagues, it behooves you to secure a top 3 or 4 guy
4 pt pass TD or PPR, wait on QBs


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 22:33 
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So let's discuss the question only in the context of PPR leagues which award 6 pts per td pass. :roll:

Elite RB > Elite QB > Elite WR/TE > 2nd Tier RB > 2nd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 3rd Tier RB > 3rd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 4th Tier RB > 2nd Tier TE > 4th Tier WR > 3rd Tier QB > Elite Defense > 4th Tier QB > 3rd Tier TE...

Or something like that...


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sat 07.14.2012, 22:42 
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KIAball1996 wrote:
So let's discuss the question only in the context of PPR leagues which award 6 pts per td pass. :roll:

Elite RB > Elite QB > Elite WR/TE > 2nd Tier RB > 2nd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 3rd Tier RB > 3rd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 4th Tier RB > 2nd Tier TE > 4th Tier WR > 3rd Tier QB > Elite Defense > 4th Tier QB > 3rd Tier TE...

Or something like that...


But what about 10 pt TD leagues?

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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 00:57 
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KIAball1996 wrote:
So let's discuss the question only in the context of PPR leagues which award 6 pts per td pass. :roll:
..


We touched on that in that thread too. I think we went with "wait on QB" but nobody posted any differentiated scoring results.


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 00:58 
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pwbowen wrote:
KIAball1996 wrote:
So let's discuss the question only in the context of PPR leagues which award 6 pts per td pass. :roll:

Elite RB > Elite QB > Elite WR/TE > 2nd Tier RB > 2nd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 3rd Tier RB > 3rd Tier WR > 2nd Tier QB > 4th Tier RB > 2nd Tier TE > 4th Tier WR > 3rd Tier QB > Elite Defense > 4th Tier QB > 3rd Tier TE...

Or something like that...


But what about 10 pt TD leagues?


Are all TDs 10 points or just passing? Is it 5 pt per reception PPR?


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 06:09 
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You should always wait on QB. Yes, one or two of them scores enough to make it worth picking them early in a quality-sense, but you never know which QB(s) it will be - they change every year. Last year, everybody was taking Vick in the 1st round - how did that work out?

I always wait on QB until at least the 7-8th rounds. Last year I took Eli all over the place in the 9th-10th rounds. Rest my case. Now that was a lot of luck, but that's the point - QBs are a crapshoot. Remember the rule - all QBs score a lot of points, some just more than others. Hell, kickers score a lot of points, too, you gonna take a kicker early? Same logic.

And no, 6pt. vs. 4pt. doesn't matter enough to make a difference. I ran the numbers after Brady's big year compared to the next guy (Brees, I think) and it would have amounted to about 2.8 ppg. 3 points - not enough to make a difference, imo. You can search the thread if you want, but probably faster to do the math yourself.

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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 09:45 
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gballs1 wrote:
You should always wait on QB. Yes, one or two of them scores enough to make it worth picking them early in a quality-sense, but you never know which QB(s) it will be - they change every year. Last year, everybody was taking Vick in the 1st round - how did that work out?

I always wait on QB until at least the 7-8th rounds. Last year I took Eli all over the place in the 9th-10th rounds. Rest my case. Now that was a lot of luck, but that's the point - QBs are a crapshoot. Remember the rule - all QBs score a lot of points, some just more than others. Hell, kickers score a lot of points, too, you gonna take a kicker early? Same logic.

And no, 6pt. vs. 4pt. doesn't matter enough to make a difference. I ran the numbers after Brady's big year compared to the next guy (Brees, I think) and it would have amounted to about 2.8 ppg. 3 points - not enough to make a difference, imo. You can search the thread if you want, but probably faster to do the math yourself.


The one problem with your premise is that we do know, barring injury, that Rodgers, Brees and Brady are going to put up huge numbers.

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Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 09:57 
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Here's an idea:

Let's say you're in the 11- or 12-hole in a 12-team PPR. Rodgers is gone. Calvin is gone. The top 8-9 RBs are gone.

You take Brees and Jimmy. You don't take backups at all, or you wait until the late rounds if value falls to you. You're confident you have Top-2 guys at each position.

Then you take nothing but RBs and WRs for the next 10-12 rounds.

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12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 10:41 
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Tiger Shark

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I have always been one to wait for a QB but this year has me thinking. I think there's a huge disparity between the big 3 RBs and the 2nd tier and if I'm picking in the bottom half of a draft I might lean towards a stud QB rather than taking a big question mark at RB. I'm talking about guys like MJD, Mathews, CJ, DMC, TRich, AP, Charles, all of whom have huge concerns this season. So with the 9 or 10 pick when the big 3 rbs, rodgers, calvin, and probably MJD and Mathews are gone, I would lean towards Brees or Brady over a second tier back. It all depends where your picking though.


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 11:10 
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Great White Shark
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thafinest wrote:
I have always been one to wait for a QB but this year has me thinking. I think there's a huge disparity between the big 3 RBs and the 2nd tier and if I'm picking in the bottom half of a draft I might lean towards a stud QB rather than taking a big question mark at RB. I'm talking about guys like MJD, Mathews, CJ, DMC, TRich, AP, Charles, all of whom have huge concerns this season. So with the 9 or 10 pick when the big 3 rbs, rodgers, calvin, and probably MJD and Mathews are gone, I would lean towards Brees or Brady over a second tier back. It all depends where your picking though.


Last year, Rodgers fell to me at 12. I had to take him.

It does truly depend on your draft slot.

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12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


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 Post subject: Re: Wait on a QB?
PostPosted: Sun 07.15.2012, 11:52 
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Great White Shark League-the premiere fantasy showcase league for Fantasy Sharks-2011:

Pat Smith first four rounds:
1.07 Michael Vick
2.06 Mendenhall
3.07 Bowe
4.06 Dez Bryant

Knowing what we know now? You wouldn't give him a chance in hell. Guess who was the 2011 Champ?

10.06 Gronkowski
11.07 Jordy Nelson

We worry too much about the top of the draft when the middle and end rounds, plus in season management, are where Championships are won.


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