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Who would you rather take instead? I know it's a quite a bit off, and there's a lot of games left to be played for him, but the only better player right now is McCutchen, and as much as I love Cutch, I think this is a career year for him. I don't know where else he can improve. Sky's the limit with Trout imo.

In the 68 games he's played in this season, he's put up: .348/61/12/42/30..

They've got 72 games left. If he would play in another 68 games the rest of the year, and you double his statistics, you've got:

122 R
24 HR
84 RBI
60 SBs

That's probably good enough right there to make him the #1 player, and that would be in 136 games played. He's 20 years old, and he's dominating in almost every aspect of the game. Yes, he's likely going to go through a slump at some point during the next 2+ months, so he likely won't end up with that stat line, or anything that close to it, and the BA may come down a bit. But he's taken 27 walks compared to 60 strikeouts, so he's shown discipline at the plate, and the OBP is over .400. He'll probably sit out a few here and there, but for argument's sake let's say he does what he is now over a 162 game season and you end up with..

145 R
28-29 HR
100 RBI
71 SB

Normally, I wouldn't extrapolate statistics like that, and it's hard to predict what Trout can and will do given a small sample size.. But given he's 20 years old, he's obviously going to improve over the next few years, and the question becomes how much?

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I know we've all boarded the Trout hype train by now... but I seem to remember the Heyward, Hosmer, Lowrie, etc. hype trains all leaving relatively recently too (and let's not forget about Strasburg's lost year). Even Ike Davis was lighting the world on fire last year before he went down. Just sayin'. A lot can happen in a short amount of time.

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In hindsight, I probably went a little overboard analyzing his statistics, and I'd still probably think Kemp and Cutch may be rated higher than him going into next season, but they don't have the upside of Trout. I think we know what Kemp and Cutch's ceilings are, with Trout, I don't think you do at this point.

His WAR is 5.0 at the moment, for those that take an interest in that stat.

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McCutchen's .372 AVG is unsustainable. He'll come back to Earth at some point.

As for Trout... I can get steals elsewhere and I'd rather have more reliable power from my early round picks.

Ryan Braun and his 61/26/65/16/.312 stat line are saying HI.
CarGo and his 62/17/60/12/.331 stat line say WASSUP.
Josh Hamilton and his 55/27/76/6/.301 stat line are feeling left out.

...and there's a whole host of other guys I'd rather have over Trout next year in the 1st or 2nd rounds where he'll probably be taken.

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But I think you've seen what the best season from those guys.. If he finishes the year with say a .320 AVG, 100+ Runs, 20-25 HRs, 70+ RBI, and 60 SBs, I'm not sure there's a better player to have in a roto league, given the all-around production. What hurts him is he plays the OF, and all those guys you mention are OFs, but he's got a shot to lead the league in BA, R, and SBs as a 20 year old in a partial season. In roto leagues you're looking for balance, and for the advantage Trout could give you in those 3 categories, He's not putting you completely behind in HRs and RBIs.

I think a viable case can be made, and I generally agree with you that grabbing power early is key, but I just think this is such a unique player that it needs to be considered.

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2009 Tanked Dynasty League Champ
2010 Draft Sharks Semi-Pro West Champ
2011 Draft Sharks Pro Champ
2012 Deep Black Dynasty Champion

My strategy will probably be the same next year as it was this year, get a stud corner infielder round 1. I'm not saying Trout won't/can't produce like the top overall player, I just feel more comfortable building a team around a high avg/power hitting CI than I do a 5 cat OF.

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He's got a higher ceiling than any of those guys?

higher than 40/40 with a .320+ average? (i.e., Kemp's 2011)

Trout's been amazing this season, but some of it is unsustainable. He doesn't walk very much, and he doesn't hit enough fly balls to maintain the HR pace.

Next season, in redraft leagues, I'd call him a certain top 10 OF, but there are very good arguments in favor of taking a bunch of guys ahead of him, including:

Braun
Hamilton
CarGo
Kemp
McCutcheon
Ellsbury (probably the most comparable to Trout in terms of skills)
Granderson
Upton

Trout has the highest stolen base potential of the group, but several of those guys have significantly higher power ceilings (Braun, Hamilton, CarGo, Kemp, Granderson) or longer track records of multi-category contributions. It's not completely unreasonable to think he may have already permanently leaped to elite class, but it's also not a stretch to think there will be another adjustment period or that those proven guys can either continue to improve or simply maintain current levels of excellence for another season.

He's obviously near the top of any dynasty or long term keeper list, but it's a little unrealistic to think that with less than a full season in the majors, he's already definitively one of the very best in the game*.


*this applies solely to his value to fantasy teams. He may, in fact, already be among baseball's elite in terms of his value to the Angels and his impact on games

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