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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 12:34 
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RGIII signed his rookie deal and all systems are go in DC

We know how much these guys love him viewtopic.php?f=2&t=284120&p=3873311&hilit=robert+griffin#p3873311

If I dont' get a top 5 stud I think I'll just skip the whole Romo/Eli/Vick/Peyton tier and gamble on Griffin at his ADP (and an adequate backup just in case)

What kind of year are you guys expecting?


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 12:45 
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3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 12:53 
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badgasman9 wrote:
3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.



Not sure about the passing numbes, but shanny likes the the bootleg alot, I could see Griffin taking off if he doesnt like what he sees.


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 12:55 
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endzoneview wrote:
RGIII signed his rookie deal and all systems are go in DC

We know how much these guys love him viewtopic.php?f=2&t=284120&p=3873311&hilit=robert+griffin#p3873311

If I dont' get a top 5 stud I think I'll just skip the whole Romo/Eli/Vick/Peyton tier and gamble on Griffin at his ADP (and an adequate backup just in case)

What kind of year are you guys expecting?


Assuming 16 starts:

3200 yds passing
20 TDs

600 yds rushing
6 TDs

That's 344 pts in my league. Round him up to 360 for a handful of long TD pass bonuses.

Last year that would have put him at #9 in my league, just behind Ryan and ahead of Rivers.

ADP right now is about 87. That's early 8th round. Interesting idea.

EDIT: Oops, forgot turnovers. Assume one TO per game. That's a minus 32. So 328 pts puts still puts him at #10 QB.

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Last edited by TheNataliePortmans on Wed 07.18.2012, 12:59, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 12:59 
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rugger48 wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:
3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.



Not sure about the passing numbes, but shanny likes the the bootleg alot, I could see Griffin taking off if he doesnt like what he sees.



Well, Mcnabb threw for almost 3400 yds in 2010 in 13 games, and Grossman had 3151 last year in 13, the yards seem about right. I think that's too many rushing td's and prob need to bump INT up 3-4... but i'd say that's pretty good ballpark. Good as any guesses right now.


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:01 
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rugger48 wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:
3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.



Not sure about the passing numbes, but shanny likes the the bootleg alot, I could see Griffin taking off if he doesnt like what he sees.


I think he out performs luck

3100 14 tds 11 ints 300 rushing for 1 td.

Griff has Moss Garcon Hankerson Davis Cooley Helu Hightower. Fair amount of weapons that most rookie top prospect QB's don't ever have.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:02 
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GeekShark wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:
3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.



Not sure about the passing numbes, but shanny likes the the bootleg alot, I could see Griffin taking off if he doesnt like what he sees.



Well, Mcnabb threw for almost 3400 yds in 2010 in 13 games, and Grossman had 3151 last year in 13, the yards seem about right. I think that's too many rushing td's and prob need to bump INT up 3-4... but i'd say that's pretty good ballpark. Good as any guesses right now.


but were talking about griffin.


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:04 
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22 total TD's, 3200 yards passing, 400 yards rushing

only a QB1 consideration in 14 and over leagues.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:14 
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Last four years of offensive play calls under OC Kyle Shanahan.

Passing attempt stats.

2011 5th
2010 4th
2009 4th
2008 4th

If he stays healthy for all 16.

Should be around 600 passes (Based on Kyle's history). Throwing a low ball avg of 7yds an attempt. 4200 yds. 20 TD's 15 INT. 450 yds rushing 4TD's.

6PT TD 168pts for passing 120pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's Total = 327 pts (6th place finish)
4PT TD 168pts for passing 80pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's = 287 pts (7th place finish)


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:25 
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I think it'd be silly to draft him as your starter and not get a solid insurance policy, but pairing him with a Cutler, Schaub, or Big Ben? That'd work. I think all 4 of them have potential to finish in the top 7 this year and be this year's Stafford/Cam.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:28 
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No.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 13:45 
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Well 1 year I guess he could be fine but I wouldn't want to rely on the guy. I'm in the camp he's going to bust soooo I probably won't touch him on any team.

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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 14:31 
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tnuts13 wrote:
Last four years of offensive play calls under OC Kyle Shanahan.

Passing attempt stats.

2011 5th
2010 4th
2009 4th
2008 4th

If he stays healthy for all 16.

Should be around 600 passes (Based on Kyle's history). Throwing a low ball avg of 7yds an attempt. 4200 yds. 20 TD's 15 INT. 450 yds rushing 4TD's.

6PT TD 168pts for passing 120pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's Total = 327 pts (6th place finish)
4PT TD 168pts for passing 80pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's = 287 pts (7th place finish)


Wow, 4200 passing yards is a lot to expect from a rookie. That would be phenomenal.

But your prediction of 600 pass attempts is an average of 37.5 per game. That sounds way too high.

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Cutler, Ben
Forte, AndreB, Vereen, Trent, Starks
Andre, VJax, Torrey, Cooper, Cordy, Terrance
Martellus, Wright
CIN

Lost to INJ/dope/Shanny: Cobb-Wayne-MJames/Blackmon/RGIII

10-4, 1 seed,


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 14:37 
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rugger48 wrote:
GeekShark wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:
3500 16 tds 12 ints 600 rushing 4 tds. Low side

3800 20 tds 15 ints 800 rushing 6 tds high side.



Not sure about the passing numbes, but shanny likes the the bootleg alot, I could see Griffin taking off if he doesnt like what he sees.



Well, Mcnabb threw for almost 3400 yds in 2010 in 13 games, and Grossman had 3151 last year in 13, the yards seem about right. I think that's too many rushing td's and prob need to bump INT up 3-4... but i'd say that's pretty good ballpark. Good as any guesses right now.


but were talking about griffin.


Agreed. Just some numbers for comparison. I'm not sure i'm sold on Griffin.. Big 12 pass defenses weren't all that hot last year. However, if he is decent, he has some weapons, and for projection purposes, i'd say low 3k passing yds is not wacko. Gotta try and slot him in somewhere. If he's truly worth what the 'Skins paid for him, comparing him to those 2 guys is just a way to get some validation IMO.


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PostPosted: Wed 07.18.2012, 15:09 
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TheNataliePortmans wrote:
tnuts13 wrote:
Last four years of offensive play calls under OC Kyle Shanahan.

Passing attempt stats.

2011 5th
2010 4th
2009 4th
2008 4th

If he stays healthy for all 16.

Should be around 600 passes (Based on Kyle's history). Throwing a low ball avg of 7yds an attempt. 4200 yds. 20 TD's 15 INT. 450 yds rushing 4TD's.

6PT TD 168pts for passing 120pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's Total = 327 pts (6th place finish)
4PT TD 168pts for passing 80pts for TD's -30pts for INT's 45 rushing 24pts for rushing TD's = 287 pts (7th place finish)


Wow, 4200 passing yards is a lot to expect from a rookie. That would be phenomenal.

But your prediction of 600 pass attempts is an average of 37.5 per game. That sounds way too high.


I know it sounds high. Go check the stats though under Kyle Shanahan if you don't believe me.


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